Tim Povtak: Magic Should Wait for Arenas in 2008

Gilbert Arenas takes a bow at center court after scoring 60 points in a win against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Photo by the Associated Press

Tim Povtak, the Orlando Sentinel's NBA reporter, wrote in yesterday's paper that the Magic should not spend any of their salary-cap this summer so they will have enough room to attract All-Star point guard Gilbert Arenas when he becomes a free agent in 2008:

The Magic plan to pursue 27-year-old forward Rashard Lewis of Seattle, but so will 20 other teams looking to improve in a very shallow free-agent class, all willing to take drastic steps to make it happen. Lewis would help the Magic significantly next season.

Yet Gilbert Arenas could help them even more -- if they can be patient.

Arenas, 25, is the do-everything guard from Washington who will be a free agent in 2008, an all-star the past three seasons and already one of the game's finest players.

Lewis is good, but he is not close to Arenas-good.

[....]

By the summer of 2008, Arenas will be tired of playing on a team without a decent center, and beating his head against the wall with little hope of going deep in the playoffs with the Wizards.

It seems like a crazy idea; why pass on a sure shot at signing Lewis, Gerald Wallace, or Vince Carter and take a chance that we can outbid Arenas' other suitors next summer?

It gets even tricker: Arenas wrote on his NBA.com blog that he's sure he's staying in Washington; his opting out has everything to do with money and nothing to do with wanting to leave the team:

When I signed my original deal, I believed that I would become a max player so I had a player’s option. So, I make 11 and 12 million the next two years and then the extension would put me at 12.5, 13, 14 in the three years of the extension. The part that I got frustrated about the extension was that I have to play next year at that figure no matter what and then if I extend, all I’m getting is four years guaranteed. But, if I opt out after next year, I’ll have six years guaranteed because I’ll sign a whole new six year contract.

So at the end of the day, it will be a six-year deal instead of a four-year deal and instead of starting at 12.5 or 13 million, I’ll be starting at 14 or 15 million and I’ll be a max player.

This has nothing to do with me leaving or trying to look for other teams. I have to do it:

1. To get more years and
2. To increase my pay.

The risk doesn't end there. Arenas is notoriously eccentric, as documented here in a New York Times article by Chuck Klosterman. One of his quirks in particular stands out as relevant to this situation. From Gilbertology.net:

Fans began noticing his quirky antics when Gilbert said he decided between the Wizards and Clippers by flipping a coin 10 times. When the Clippers’ side came up eight times, Arenas says he knew what he had to do: go “against the odds”, although he later said he made up the story for “fun and entertainment.”

Assume that Povtak's right and Arenas indeed gets sick of not having any help down low. Would Arenas go "against the odds" -- turning down the chance of playing alongside two dominant big men and making Orlando a contender -- and stick with the Wizards? Would he throw logic out the window again and base his decision on another coin flip? There's no way to tell at this point, and that's worrisome.

Illustration by Lee Bermejo for Batman-On-Film

We Magic fans know what it's like to gamble in free-agency. We watched as the Magic signed an injured Grant Hill to a max deal seven years ago, and he's played in only 40% of the Magic's games over that span. Perhaps more infamously, we watched as the Magic lowballed Shaquille O'Neal in their bid to re-sign him eleven years ago, and he decided to bolt for the L.A. Lakers.

I've weighed the pros and cons of waiting to sign Arenas several times and I still can't come up with a conclusive answer. If we don't wait, we'll almost certainly have Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, or Gerald Wallace in a Magic uniform next season, which will give us some much-needed perimeter scoring and firepower. If we wait, we'll trot out the same team we had last season, which went 40-42 and finished 8th in a mediocre conference, and likely won't improve that standing unless Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick have breakout seasons. Can we take another year of mediocrity in hopes of landing one of the NBA's premier scorers?

I don't claim to speak for all Magic fans, which is why I'm leaving this question up to the 3QC readership.

Should the Magic save their free-agency money this summer so they can sign Gilbert Arenas next summer?
	Yes
	No
pollcode.com free polls

The future is in your hands.

Stan's Whiteboard Provides Entire Minutes of Speculation

Ugh! The past week has been interminable, what with the worst NBA Finals in the history of history and all. Perhaps that is why I am so amused by this story on the Orlando Sentinel's website, which briefly discusses Stan Van Gundy's search for assistant coaches. The best bit of information is that Van Gundy is putting a lot of thought into finding an assistant to work specifically with Dwight Howard:

"I do think with big guys, they are a little predisposed to listen to guys who played that position," Van Gundy said. "I can teach low-post stuff, but he'd be looking at me like 'what?'"

Maybe he should ask Shaquille what his plans are.

I was more entertained by the following photo of Stan's whiteboard, which he uses to keep track of meetings with Magic players.

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

The players appear to be ordered by position, then by depth. The first four are point guards, the next three are shooting guards, and the next two are small forwards. After that, the reasoning as to the order is anyone's guess. Maybe Stan thinks of every player listed after Trevor Ariza as a power forward?

Whatever. It's a great picture because so much can be gleaned from so little:

• Darko Milicic, Hedo Turkoglu, and Travis Diener have absolutely nothing next to their names, which seems to indicate they haven't been in touch at all. I guess it's hard to contact people in the far-off lands of Serbia, Turkey, and Wisconsin.
• Keyon Dooling is lumped in with the point guards, which is great news to me because he's more effective at the point and should be given a chance to start.
• The best part about the whole whiteboard is the question mark next to Keith Bogans' name. Why is it there? Perhaps Stan is wondering, along with the rest of Magic Nation, what the hell Keith Bogans is doing on the roster.

So, when's that draft again? Oh, and we don't have any first-round picks?

Damn.

Well, if you find yourself bored during the wait for Magic news, I humbly suggest the following diversions:

• Black and Blue's blog, which has made rating Magic cheerleaders a regular Friday thing.
• HarpringSucks, a Utah Jazz-themed blog with a questionable name. The Jazz players/Star Wars characters comparison was particularly hilarious. Busting on Gordan Giricek never gets old.

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

I sincerely hope we're able to make it through the next week alive. Until then...

Warner Independent Pictures

Minor-League Baseball Team to Host 'Billy Donovan Night'

For once in my life, I'll actually be rooting against the Yankees.

The Fort Myers Miracle, a minor-league baseball team, announced on its website that it will host Billy Donovan Night on Wednesday, June 20th for its game against the Tampa Yankees. Here's an excerpt from the announcement on the website:

Fans that purchase a ticket, at the box office, for the 7:05 p.m. game against the Tampa Yankees, will see if they experience a seesaw of emotions like Billy Donovan encountered. If anytime during the game, they are not so sure they want to be at Hammond Stadium they can leave and negotiate a release from their ticket purchase.

Patrons that experience a "Billy Donovan" moment will have the option to sit down with a local attorney and strike a deal for an out-clause from their ticket purchase. Part of the negotiating process will involve making a free throw into our on-site basketball hoop.

Fans that make the easy decision to stay will be entered into a drawing for four tickets to a Florida basketball game in Gainesville this upcoming season. We guarantee Billy Donovan will be there!

Fort Myers own Billy Donovan [not THE Billy Donovan; BQR] will throw out the first pitch and waffles will be available at the concession stand.

You can buy tickets by clicking here.

I wish I could be at that game, but I have to work that afternoon and couldn't possibly make it down to Fort Myers in time. Are there any 3QC readers out there who are interested in attending? If so, let me know. I'd love to post your pictures and/or your account of the event!

The Case For Keeping Grant Hill

With apologies to Shawn Kemp, no superstar of the early 1990s has seen his career tail off as quickly as Grant Hill did. Whereas Kemp was done in by his hedonism, Hill was done in by his passion for basketball. He played through excruciating pain in his last season in Detroit, limping around the court in the playoffs as a mere shadow of himself. He didn't know his ankle was broken, and consequently he didn't know that he'd never again dominate a game with Oscar Robertson-like averages of 21 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists as he did in the 1996/1997 season. It's easy to forget how great Hill was, and it's even easier to dismiss him as a has-been. The Magic have played 511 combined regular-season and postseason games since Hill signed with the team. Of those, he has played in 204, or a mere 39.9%.

Grant Hill, in obvious pain, leaves the second game of the Detroit Pistons' first-round playoff series with the Miami Heat in 2000. His career would never be the same.
Photo by Angela Peterson, Orlando Sentinel

In spite of all that, I'm here today to campaign openly for the Magic to re-sign Grant Hill. It won't be an easy task: unless Hill is willing to sign for the veteran's minimum of $1.5 M, the Magic would likely have to trade someone like Keith Bogans or Carlos Arroyo to free up cap room because most -- if not all -- of it will go toward re-signing Darko Milicic and signing a perimeter scorer. The fact that other teams are interested in Hill further complicates the matter. And last Thursday, USA Today reported that Grant Hill will listen to what those other suitors will say:

With his ankle now stabilized, the 12-year veteran says he hasn't closed the door on a return to the Magic but is listening to all offers. Could a return to Detroit be in his future? "I'm keeping myself open," Hill says.

"I'm going to see what Orlando's doing but if people come knocking, I'm going to listen. I'm still trying to figure it all out."

Contrary to what detractors would have you believe, Grant Hill is still talented and well worth a roster spot. I don't buy the argument that Hill is a cancer to this team, or that he swindled us out of $93 M and set us back seven years. It is not as though Grant sat on his duff, content to receive his paycheck every two weeks. He worked hard to rehabilitate his oft-maligned left ankle, even after six surgeries. He showed a commitment to this team by not quitting when it would have been easy for him to do so.

Showing incredible dedication, Grant Hill went through the difficult process of getting himself ready to play after suffering numerous ankle injuries.

Photo by Gary Bogdon, Orlando Sentinel

No, he won't ever again post the Robertson-like averages to which I alluded earlier, but he doesn't have to do that to be effective. Last season, he was second on the team in scoring, averaging 14.4 points per game. On top of that, he shot an efficient 52.8%, good for 20th-best in the entire league. That's a remarkable percentage, especially considering that only two other guards shot better than that last season: two-time MVP Steve Nash and two-time NBA championship winner Tony Parker, both of whom are All-Stars.

Even at 34, Grant Hill can still get to the rim.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

His defense hasn't fallen off, either. He held opposing shooting guards to a Player Efficiency Rating of 14.5, which is below the league average of 15. No, he isn't a world-class defender like Shawn Marion, but he's not a sieve like Gilbert Arenas either.

But Grant's value to this team can't be measured in numbers alone. He's a leader, both in the locker room and in the community. On a team loaded with young players -- Trevor Ariza, Dwight Howard, Darko Milicic, and J.J. Redick are all under 25 years old -- the importance of a guiding presence in the locker room cannot be overstated. Tony Battie, Pat Garrity, and Bo Outlaw are all veterans, but none of them are veteran All-Stars; they don't command as much respect as Grant does.

Grant Hill doesn't have to be on the court to be an asset to his team.

Photo by Rusty Kennedy, Associated Press

Imagine this scenario: The Magic start Jameer, JJ, a free-agent small forward, Darko, and Dwight. Grant Hill comes off the bench and averages 12 points on 55% shooting in 20 minutes a game. He'd share sixth-man duties with Trevor Ariza and the Magic would at least get into the second round of the playoffs. It's not that hard to fathom; Stan Van Gundy took the Heat, who won only 42 games in the regular season, into the second round in 2003/2004.

The Magic should bring Hill back for his intangibles alone. The fact that he's still a top-100 talent in this league only makes the decision that much easier. Would I call it a slam dunk?

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

Yes, I would.

CNBC: Magic Offer Refunds to Ticket Buyers after Donovan Fiasco

Earlier today, Henry Abbott of TrueHoop linked to this article by CNBC's Darren Rovell, who writes that the Magic have decided to offer refunds to people who bought season tickets after Billy Donovan was hired as coach, then asked to be let out of his contract after he decided he'd rather stay at the University of Florida. An excerpt from Rovell:

Kudos to the Orlando Magic who told me today that they are willing to refund the money paid by any of the 200 season ticket holders, who bought seats after Billy Donovan was hired as head coach. Orlando Magic spokesman Joel Glass said that the team was in the process of contacting each of the new season ticket holders one by one. "So far we've had some people who said they are going to stick with us and others have said they will wait until free agency," said Glass, who noted that he didn't know of anyone who elected to cancel.

I have to echo Rovell's praise here. This move is a classy one by the Magic, especially considering that they are under no obligation to offer any refund at all. Hopefully this news will serve as positive PR for us.

ESPN's Marc Stein: Duncan Almost Signed With Magic

Photo by Tony Dejak, Associate Press

As if the events of the past two weeks haven't been tumultuous enough, ESPN.com's Marc Stein reports in today's Daily Dime (scroll down to the 9th box) that Tim Duncan's decision to choose San Antonio over Orlando during the 2000 free agency period was, in Duncan's words, "probably a lot closer decision than people even think or even know."

More from Stein:

Orlando's nine-figure contract offer to Shaquille O'Neal wasn't enough to convince Shaq to stay in 1996 ... and Duncan was apparently more serious about joining Grant Hill four summers later than the basketball world ever realized ... and Billy Donovan just set a land-speed record for backing out of the lucrative coaching agreement that had folks in Central Florida believing that their string of free-agent miseries -- Shaq, Duncan, Hill and Tracy McGrady are the most prominent four -- had finally been broken.

The full article is available for ESPN Insiders here. If anyone with an Insider account wants to share a summary of the piece, please do.

Okay, I still don't agree with Jemele Hill when she writes that we're "perhaps the most disrespected franchise in sports", but I'd have to now concede that Orlando's had worse luck than anyone knew previously. As loathsome as Duncan's lack of style is, it would have been nice to have him in Orlando. This conference doesn't have a truly dominant center, and hasn't had one in years. Even with an injured Grant Hill, the Magic still would have been in contention with Duncan in the lineup.

If you'll excuse me, I have to stab myself in the hand for the next 20 minutes. It'd make me feel better.

The Man: Magic Hire Stan Van Gundy

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

This news isn't really news anymore -- it broke late last night -- but it would be irresponsible of me to not acknowledge the hiring of the Magic's new head coach, Stan Van Gundy. AWESOME. Too bad they didn't hire my favorite Stan.


The Orlando Sentinel has a pretty great article here about all the hoops the Magic had to jump through to get Billy Donovan out; to get Stan Van Gundy in; and to appease the Miami Heat, who wanted compensation for letting Van Gundy, a Heat consultant, out of his contract. Otis Smith and the rest of the Magic brass can catch up on some much-needed rest now.

I think Stan is a great choice as coach. He isn't as "big-time" as Billy Donovan, but he's a proven pro coach. Here's what I wrote about Stan on May 28th:

My take: Stan Van Gundy is another solid candidate. He compiled a record of 112-73 (.605) in two-plus seasons in Miami before Pat Riley forced him out. Like Iavaroni, Van Gundy is offensively minded, as the Heat improved their scoring average from 90.3 points per game to 101.5 points per game from his first year to his second. That increase in team scoring coincided with Dwyane Wade's individual scoring, which jumped from 16.2 to 24.1 in the same period. It seems to me that Van Gundy would be a good fit for the Magic, as he might be able to hone the offensive skills of Jameer Nelson and Trevor Ariza.

I stand by all those words.

More words from a while ago: Bethlehem Shoals' short piece from May 25th entitled "Why Orlando needs Stan Van Gundy." When I originally linked to that article, Shoals commented here and explained that hiring Van Gundy would establish "[Pat] Riley/SVG narrative tension." He makes an excellent point: Riley stripped Van Gundy of his head-coaching duties when it was clear the Heat were a good team, reinstalled himself as coach, then coached them to a championship. Okay, sure, he kept Van Gundy around as a consultant, but the way Van Gundy was kicked out was seriously bush-league. Having these two coach against each other alone is fantastic; the fact that their respective teams have a preexisting rivalry makes it that much sweeter.

Reverse the Curse: Forgive Shaq and Bring Him Back

As the regular season drew to a close, I didn't think I'd have to write too many more rah-rah pieces for this blog. I'm proud of my last one, but I'm disappointed because it didn't seem to get anyone's attention, or if it did, it didn't alter any perceptions about this team. I guess that's to be expected, given the tiny amount of visitors this site had back then.

With Billy Donovan bailing out on the Magic after just three days, many people have expressed that they no longer care about the team, some even going as far to suggest the Magic relocate to Kansas City. Florida Gator fans are having a field day with this news, days after some of their number called us the "Whorelando Tragic" for "stealing" Billy away from them. Evidently, we're still a Mickey Mouse Town, at least in their eyes.

But I am not interested in the thoughts of small-minded people. We, as Magic fans, have two options at this crucial juncture in the franchise's history: we can bemoan our past failures, or we can look for ways to secure a brighter future for this team.

There's one easy choice the Magic can make that I believe will reverse the curse and restore this franchise to glory:

Bring back Shaq.

The Magic have been, at best, mediocre since the Diesel left us in 1996 -- a regular-season record of 442-448 (.485) and a postseason record of 8-20 (.286) including no series wins. During that same time period, he's has won four NBA titles and won three NBA Finals MVP awards. Considering the respective fates of the Magic and Shaq since 1996, it's no wonder that some believe in the Curse of the Shaqino.

Photo by Pier Nicola D'Amico

Is bringing him back really that crazy of an idea? Not to Shaq; take a look at this excerpt from an interview with Lang Whitaker appearing in the July 2007 issue of SLAM Magazine, pictured above:

SLAM: I've heard you talk more and more over the last year or so about wanting to buy an NBA team when you retire. Is that something you're serious about?
SHAQ: Yeah, I would like to either work for this organization [Miami] or work for Orlando.
SLAM: In what capacity?
SHAQ: General manager? President? I don't want no BS job. "Director of SLAM Magazine!" [Laughs]
SLAM: Director of alumni relations?
SHAQ: [Laughing] Exactly! If I'm gonna do this, it'll probably be a real job.

That much is settled: Shaq hasn't ruled out returning to the Magic. Perhaps the best way for him to do that is to join the team in a consultant role once he retires from playing. And is there anyone on Earth more qualified than Shaq to teach Dwight Howard what it takes to dominate the post? Further, could there be a more compelling story in basketball than the once-scorned superstar returning to the city he abandoned to save it from certain death? Talk about redemption.

Former franchise cornerstones returning to mentor future stars isn't unprecedented. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, perhaps the best center in the history of the game, currently works with the Los Angeles Lakers' eighteen-year-old center Andrew Bynum, a potential superstar.

Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein

Shaq's contract with the Heat runs through the 2009/2010 season at a whopping $20 M per year. Assume for a moment that Shaq plays out his contract with the Heat, retires from playing, and joins the Magic to tutor Howard beginning in the 2010/2011 season. Our All-Star center will be 24, in his physical prime, and under the guidance of the most physically dominant player of all-time. I can't think of a better way for this story to play out.

He left us a long time ago, Magic fans. His statement that he was "a big fish in a small pond" in Orlando was hyperbolic. He wants to return here once his playing days are over. For the sake of the franchise, we must forgive him for his past transgressions and embrace Shaquille.

He brought us hope once.

Photo by Don Ryan

He can bring it again.

UPDATE: Just as I posted this piece, I was shown this one by Jemele Hill, the former Orlando Sentinel columnist who has now found a home on ESPN's Page 2. It's a short and enlightening read.

ESPN: It's In the Lawyers' Hands Now

Here today, gone tomorrow.

The ESPN article by Andy Katz is getting updated almost hourly with new information. Apparently, lawyers for the Magic and for Billy Donovan are in discussions regarding a possible financial penalty for Donovan voiding his contract. The following paragraph is the article's last, and essentially says it all:

The prevailing mood among sources close to this situation is that Donovan will remain the head coach at Florida, the recruits and staff will stay intact, and the Magic will then hope to land Stan Van Gundy, possibly by Monday or Tuesday.

The information about Stan Van Gundy isn't shocking if you've been keeping up with the Sentinel's coverage, which states that Van Gundy was the only other coach the Magic interviewed before the Donovan hire.

Regarding the financial aspects: I think the Magic deserve compensation for this disaster. They need enough money to cover the season-ticket refunds that will likely be demanded, especially considering that at least 200 were sold after Donovan's hiring was made official. They also need money to get some creative public relations firm to spin this disaster into something marginally positive. However, I'm not a lawyer, so I don't think there's a lot more I can say on that.

Regarding Van Gundy: I think he would be a good hire. He's good at developing young talent and had success while coaching the Miami Heat. I just hope we're able to make him an offer in time; the Sacramento Kings were also very interested in his services, and if he were to accept that job, the life would officially have been sucked out of this organization. There wouldn't be any attractive candidates left: Larry Brown is too old; P.J. Carlesimo is not creative enough offensively; and Rick Carlisle, although he's had success in Detroit and Indiana, prefers to play at a Brian Hill-like pace.

I still can't bring myself to be angry. The guys at Four Free Throws do not share my misery, or if they do, they show it in a far different fashion. Rated R for pervasive strong language.

I had planned to do this for a long time, so excuse me if it's not entirely appropriate. Anyway, this post is my 52nd on this site, so I want to commemorate the occasion by posting the following picture of everyone's favorite former Magic player to wear #52, Don Reid:

Don Reid was never afraid to do battle with anyone, not even Hall of Fame center David Robinson of San Antonio
Photo by Eric Gay, Associated Press

Reid averaged 3.3 points and 3.1 rebounds in two seasons with the Magic. His hustle, girth, and scowl are sorely missed and fondly remembered. His NBA career ended in 2002/2003, when he appeared in a single game for Detroit.