Poll Results, New and Old

From time to time, I post a poll in the right sidebar of 3QC. In looking over some of my notes, I realized that I had taken some polls down without posting their results. With the exception of the top-most chart, which details the results of last week's question, these charts represent data collected well over a month ago. My bad.

So, in the interests of completeness and of full disclosure, here are the results, along with links to the entries to which they correspond:

Who do you want the Magic to sign as their 15th man?

• Kevin Kruger, 10 votes
• Torrell Martin, 5 votes
• Bo Outlaw, 2 votes
• Somebody else, 0 votes

Was signing Adonal Foyle a good move?

• Yes, 8 votes
• Kinda, 6 votes
• Are you kidding? 0 votes
• What's an Adonal? 1 vote

Would you trade Keyon Dooling and Pat Garrity to Denver for Reggie Evans and J.R. Smith?

• Absolutely, 9 votes
• Probably, 1 vote
• I don't know, 3 votes
• Probably not, 1 vote
• Absolutely not, 0 votes

Sentinel: Magic invite Outlaw, Kruger, and Martin to Training Camp

Tim Povtak reported in this morning's Orlando Sentinel that Bo Outlaw, who was told earlier this summer that he didn't fit into the Magic's future plans, will join the team in training camp and will have a chance to compete for the team's fifteenth and final roster spot. Said GM Otis Smith, "It's just hard to say no to Bo." I just wish someone had shouted "No, Bo!" before Andrea Bargnani went and did this to him last season:



Joining Bo as non-roster invitees will be point guard Kevin Kruger and shooting guard Torrell Martin. Those two players averaged 8.8 points per game and 3.2 points per game, respectively, on the Magic's summer-league team. Complete statistics for that team can be downloaded in a PDF file by clicking here.

Given the Magic's cache of average-at-best big-men (Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle, Pat Garrity, James Augustine, Marcin Gortat), I think Outlaw's chances of making the team are slim. Of all the players, I think Kruger has the best odds. Sure, he'd be a third-string point guard, but his presence would allow the Magic to unload the expiring contracts of either Carlos Arroyo or Keyon Dooling in a trade. Torrell Martin has to be all but ruled-out; the Magic are thin at shooting guard, but not thin enough to warrant taking a flyer on him.

We'll see shortly how it all shakes out; camp begins on September 26th.

On Second Thought...: Using Statistics to Re-do the All-Defense Lineup

One week ago today, I made a post in which I wrote that Keyon Dooling should start at point guard for the Magic if the team went with a defense-oriented starting lineup. My reasoning came from objectively watching Dooling play; he's the best defender the Magic have under 6'6" tall. He also played minutes at point guard down the stretch last season as Carlos Arroyo fell out of favor with Brian Hill.

All the recent discussion about the validity of statistics in the basketblogosphere got me thinking, "How would that defensive-oriented lineup change if I were to use statistics instead of my own knowledge about the players?" I’ll go into two possibilities in that regard momentarily.

The statistics discussion began over at Plissken at the Buzzer, where Carter Blanchard poo-pooed John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) because it rated the likes of Brent Barry and Earl Boykins more highly than it rated Lamar Odom. Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty responded in this post on Ballhype, and the discussion has spun-off into so many posts on so many blogs that it’s hard to keep them straight.

I personally put a fair amount of trust in PER because it

• Compiles a player's offensive and defensive statistics into one number,
• Adjusts that number for playing-time and league pace, and
• Normalizes that number to 15 each season; that is, a marginal player will have a PER below 15 and a good player will have a PER above 15.

Using data from the incomparable 82games, here is what the Magic's best defensive lineup would be, derived from subtracting the PER a player allows opponents he is guarding from a player’s own PER:

1. Carlos Arroyo (15.6 own, 14.3 allowed, +1.3)
2. Keyon Dooling (11.2 own, 13.4 allowed -2.2)
3. Rashard Lewis (21.6 own, 15.5 allowed, +6.1)
4. Tony Battie (10.3 own, 15.2 allowed, -4.9)
5. Dwight Howard (23 own, 12.9 allowed +10.1)

Notice that Dooling and Battie allow better PERs than they post themselves. What’s sad is that those two players were, by this measure, the best at their respective positions last season even with those negative differences.

However, this lineup only works if you trust PER and 82games' assessment of each player's position; according to that site, for instance, Dooling was on the floor for 35% of the Magic's total minutes last season, and he spent 88.5% of that time at shooting guard. The table, available here, is reproduced in image form below:


But a statistical system in which Lamar Odom (15.9 points per game, 9.8 rebounds per game, 4.8 assists per game in 2006/2007; 16.1 PER) is rated lower than Brent Barry (8.5 points per game, 2.1 rebounds per game, 1.8 assists per game in 2006/2007; 16.6 PER) surely must be flawed, right? After all, players who rarely get off the bench do not have a fair amount of data from which to draw their PERs, which is why our very own James Augustine (a total of 7 minutes played in two games last season) posted a PER of 16.6, which also exceeds Lamar Odom's showing.

Perhaps a better indicator of a player's defensive effectiveness is his plus/minus rating, adjusted on a per-100 possessions basis. For instance, the Magic allowed 106.1 points per 100 possessions when Dwight Howard was on the floor, but just 105.4 points per 100 possessions when he was off it. Using this information, we can see that, at least last season, the Magic were actually a slightly better defensive team when Howard was not in the game.

Here's how the all-defense lineup looks when using on-court/off-court defensive performance as the criterion. Note that a negative differential is good because it means the team allows fewer points per 100 possessions when the player is on the floor:

1. Carlos Arroyo (103.8 on, 106.9 off, -3.1)
   
2. Keith Bogans (105.7 on, 106.0 off, -0.3)
   
3. Trevor Ariza (103.1 on, 107.2 off, -4.1)
   
4. Tony Battie (103.4 on, 107.5 off, -4.1)
   
5. Dwight Howard (106.1 on, 105.4 off, +0.7)
   

Interesting how Keith Bogans and Trevor Ariza show up here, but not in the previous list. This indicates, at least to me, that Bogans and Ariza are better team defenders than they are individual defenders.

Even more interesting: Dooling’s per-100 possession defensive differential isn’t so great; when he is on the floor, the Magic allow 108.1 points per 100 possessions. But when he’s off the floor, the Magic’s defense is better, allowing 104.6 points per 100 possessions. I have no idea how to explain that. Even more puzzling is Jameer Nelson’s numbers. When he’s on the floor, the Magic allow 107.1 points per 100 possessions. Does that mean that Jameer is a better defender than Keyon is? It seems to indicate that fact is true, although we, as Magic fans, know it not to be.

I now pose the question to you: if you had to select a defensive-oriented starting lineup for the Magic, whom would you choose?

This discussion of statistics has left me tired; I need to shut my brain off, and perhaps you do too. For you, then, I present Hedo Turkoglu getting dunked on by Marco Belinelli in Eurobasket competition. No wonder Turk doesn't appear on any of these defensive lineups, although, in fairness, he was the weak-side defender on the play and was not responsible for Belinelli getting into the lane.

Thanks to Tom Ziller for originally posting that clip over at AOL Fanhouse.

Fun With Rotations: 2007/2008 Starting Lineup Possibilities, Part Two

There are only three givens for this year's Magic starting lineup: Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard will be there. After that, it's anyone's guess as to who else will be there, and which position they'll play. 3QC breaks down the possibilities.

Tuesday's entry covered the All-Firepower lineup. This one features its philosophical opposite...

The All-Defense Lineup

1. Keyon Dooling
   
2. Trevor Ariza
3. Rashard Lewis
4. Tony Battie
5. Dwight Howard

This lineup surrounds the Lewis/Howard core with Dooling, Ariza, and Battie, three blue-collar defenders. It relegates Jameer to the bench, which frees him up to come into games and immediately look to score rather than look to set-up his teammates. There's no way that Jameer won't be the opening-night starter, but I'm willing to put that aside just for the sake of argument. Starting Keyon ensures that the opposition's starter will be worn down offensively. What we'd then have to bank on is that Jameer is able to run that starter ragged once he enters the game, forcing the opposition to go to its backup. In other words, this lineup trades early offense for later offense. Make of that what you will.

The major flaw in this configuration, however, is the opposite problem the All-Firepower one has: there are too few offensive weapons on the floor to start the game. Dooling has never been known for his scoring abilities nor for his ability to run an offense; Tony Battie has only one reliable offensive option: the 18-foot jumper; and Trevor Ariza feeds off of offensive rebounds and transition buckets rather than off of having plays called for him. Further, Dwight struggles with creating shots for himself, leaving Rashard as the only true playmaker. I suspect there would be plenty of standing-around going on in this lineup, which works well only when playing with elite talents like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan.

Basically, this lineup wouldn't be a bad one to use for small stretches, but it's not one that would be effective to start a game; it's not balanced enough. Relegating Jameer, Hedo Turkoglu, and J.J. Redick to the bench is just too risky because any of those players, when given starter's minutes, could go for 25 points on any given night.

As always, the comments section is open for discussion. There will be more entries in this series in the coming days.

UPDATED - Who's Under Contract: A Tentative 2007/2008 Orlando Magic Roster

The following is a list of players the Magic have under contract for at least the 2007/2008 season. It will be updated as the summer progresses. The timestamp will be changed with each update, which will move the post back to the top of the page.

	No.	Player	Pos.	Contract Expires
	1	Trevor Ariza	SF	2008/2009 1
	30	Carlos Arroyo	PG	2007/2008
	40	James Augustine	PF	2007/2008
	4	Tony Battie	PF	2009/2010
	10	Keith Bogans	SG	2008/2009
	5	Keyon Dooling	PG	2007/2008
	31	Adonal Foyle	PF	2008/2009
	8	Pat Garrity	PF	2007/2008
	13	Marcin Gortat	C	2008/2009
	12	Dwight Howard	C	2013/20142
	9	Rashard Lewis	SF	2012/20133
	14	Jameer Nelson	PG	2007/20084
	7	J.J. Redick	SG	2009/20105
	15	Hedo Turkoglu	SF	2009/20106
--	--	Empty roster spot 1	--	--

Notes:
¹: Can opt-out at the end of the 2007/2008 season.
²: Signed five-year, $85.9 million contract extension, which will come into effect following the 2007/2008 season.
³: Signed six-year, $127.2 million contract with Seattle, then was traded to Magic.
⁴: Agent and team in negotiations for contract extension.
⁵: 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons are team options.
⁶: Can opt-out at the end of the 2008/2009 season.

Today, Magic Get Foyle; Tomorrow, Magic Fans Can Get Tickets

It's been so slow around the NBA that the news of Samuel Dalembert obtaining Canadian citizenship made the front-page of ESPN's NBA page last week. The Magic news has also slowed down a bit now that the Dooling/Garrity for Smith/Evans trade talk has died. Black and Blue has seen "insiders" post that the team will sign Adonal Foyle, but that hasn't been reported anywhere yet. That didn't stop Brendan over at Believing in Magic from posting his take on Foyle's potential signing and its impact on the rotation.

...would you look at that? As I was writing this post, word leaked that the Magic had agreed to terms with Adonal Foyle. Thanks to Black and Blue for the heads-up and to the Orlando Sentinel for getting the story.

Today, there is actual more news to report: Ticketmaster alerted me that single-game tickets for the Magic's upcoming 2007/2008 NBA season will go on-sale tomorrow at 10:00 AM. You can click here to browse the schedule and here to browse special multi-game ticket packages. Previously, only season-ticket packages were available to the public. As a Magic Insider, I was able to purchase the 10-game weekend package last week. Which games are you most looking forward to seeing? Let's discuss it in the comments.

On the whole, it hasn't been a bad day for the Magic. They shored up their frontcourt rotation and let their fans know that tickets will be available soon. Life is good. We'll see how it works out in October.

Don't Free Keyon

Keyon Dooling wants you to keep him in Orlando. Also, he wears his sunglasses at night.

The Nuggets/Magic trade rumors heated up yesterday when John Denton reported that Denver may ask for both Pat Garrity and Keyon Dooling in exchange for Reggie Evans and J.R. Smith. Two days ago, I supported the idea of obtaining Evans. Now that Keyon's name has been brought up as bait, I've done a 180. Or, as Tracy McGrady might say, I've done a 360.

I concede that Keyon is not a great player, and I believe many would argue that he isn't even a good player. So as an individual player, he may not have much value. But as part of the Magic team, he has it in spades.

The Magic had good defensive numbers last season, although they may be more a reflection of slow pace than of actual ability. Keyon is an outstanding perimeter defender, capable of keeping pace with opposing point guards and forcing them into making bad decisions. True, the Magic have Dwight Howard and Tony Battie, two well-regarded defensive anchors, guarding the low blocks. But they're the last line of defense against an opponent's penetration. Keyon lowers the opponent's ability to get into the paint, saving Dwight and Tony some energy that they can later spend on the offensive end... okay, maybe just Dwight.

Dooling's ability to defend Kobe Bryant and the league's other premier guards would be sorely missed if he is traded.
Photo by Mark J. Terrill, the Associated Press

By including Dooling in a trade for Reggie Evans, the Magic would break-even at best; that is, they'd shore-up a need for rebounding while creating another need for perimeter defense. Consider also the Magic's other wing players: Trevor Ariza, Carlos Arroyo, Keith Bogans, Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, and Hedo Turkoglu. Of those, only Ariza and Bogans are above-average defensively, and Bogans wasn't a rotation player last season and doesn't figure to be one this season. We can't expect Trevor Ariza to guard every opposing shooting guard or small forward. If the Magic trade Dooling and don't get a good defender in return, there would be no way for the Magic to contain the more potent backcourts in the East: Billups and Hamilton of Detroit; Hinrich and Gordon of Chicago; and Kidd and Carter of New Jersey. Why bother?

Keyon's familiarity with Stan Van Gundy's system should also be considered when determining whether or not to trade him. Whereas Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo will need time to adjust to running Stan the Man's offense, Dooling will not, as he played under Van Gundy in Miami for one season. His numbers were not spectacular -- per-game averages of 5.2 points and 1.8 assists -- but they did indicate efficiency; Keyon averaged fewer than one turnover per game. His assist ratio -- the likelihood that his touching the ball would lead to an assist -- was 22.4, the second-highest mark of his career. Additionally, his Player Efficiency Rating of 12.6 that season matches his previous career-high, which came during his rookie season with the Clippers.

It's easy to see why the Magic want Reggie Evans, but it should be even easier to see why they need Keyon Dooling. The Nuggets are smart to have an interest in him as well. Not only does his style fit-in with coach George Karl's run-and-gun system, but he's torched the Nuggets before, averaging 19.5 points per game on 61% shooting in the teams' two meetings last season.

Like all clichés, the phrase "you don't know what you have until it's gone" became so because it's so frequently true. Magic fans may experience that feeling next season if the team trades Keyon Dooling.

Pepsi Pro Summer League Wrapup -- Free Marcin!

This year's Pepsi Pro Summer League has drawn to a close and awards have been passed out. Our very own Marcin Gortat, who finished third in blocked shots per game, and J.J. Redick, who lead the league in scoring, each received First Team All-Summer League honors. James Augustine made the Second Team, and Kevin Kruger was an honorable mention. Nice job to all involved. The league ended on a sour note, though, as the Magic were handed a 63-57 loss by the Miami Heat earlier today.

J.J. Redick fires a pass around the tough defense of the Miami Heat, who finished today's contest on a 12-0 run to win the game.
Photo by Fernando Medina, Getty Images

I apologize for not covering the league more in-depth. I was able to catch Monday's game because I had the day off, but my work schedule prevented me from taking in any other games. If you're interested, you can check out game recaps and box scores from this page on the Magic's website. A warning on the box scores - they are downloadable PDF files; that is, you can't just click on a page and see the box score. Unfortunate.

My summer-league game-ball goes to Marcin Gortat, whose performance this week has all but assured him a spot on the team's roster. The seven-footer posted per-game averages of 10 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 3.2 blocked shots. The loss of Darko left us with only one shot-blocker, Dwight Howard, and he can't play the whole game. If Gortat can play 10-15 minutes a night and protect the rim, I'll be happy.

Marcin Gortat attempts a layup against the Chicago Bulls during a summer-league game. Gortat's strong showing throughout the league has strengthened his case for inclusion on the Magic's roster.

Photo by Fernando Medina, Getty Images

Another player who turned heads was Kevin Kruger of UNLV. The departure of Travis Diener leaves the Magic in need of a third point guard. Kruger played competently and unselfishly, although his 2.6 assists per-game average doesn't show it. Like Diener, he's deadly from three-point territory, as he shot 10-of-22, or 46%, from that distance. Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo would absolutely get the nod over him, and Keyon Dooling figures to see time running the point as well, but the Magic could do worse than have Kevin Kruger as their last option at the point.

With whose summer-league performance are you most impressed? Vote in the sidebar on the right-hand side. If anything big happens this weekend, I'll chime in. If not, I'll enjoy a respite from the internet... by working at my "actual job" for 12 hours this weekend.

Redick Scores 30 in Summer-League Debut; Magic Beat Nets 85-74

NEWSFLASH: J.J. Redick can score.

Unable to compete in last year's Pepsi Pro Summer League due to injury, the Magic's second-year guard made up for lost time by scoring 30 points on 7-of-18 shooting from the field, including 4-of-6 from three-point range. His team came away with the victory, as the Orlando Magic held off the New Jersey Nets by a final margin of 85-74.

I'll say this about J.J.: I had him all wrong. I figured him to be fairly one-dimensional on offense. It's true that he relies upon the three-point shot, but he also drives to the basket quicker and harder than one might think. Most of his three-pointers tonight were set up by screens on the low-block, which J.J. would curl around before catching the pass and shooting. The skeptic in me points out that those shots are easier to make in summer-league play because they are not defended as well, but the realist in me counters that the basket is the same height in the regular-season and that the screens will be coming from Dwight Howard and Tony Battie rather than non-roster invitees. A promising offensive display from the Magic's two-guard of the future, to be sure.

But Redick was not the only Magic player who impressed: Marcin Gortat, a second-round draft choice in 2005 who has spent the past few seasons in Poland, posted 10 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists; James Augustine, the Magic's second-round draft choice in 2006, added 11 points and 5 rebounds; Kevin Kruger, an undrafted point guard out of UNLV, filled up the stat line with 11 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal; and Steven Smith made a strong case for his inclusion on the Magic's 15-man roster with 13 points on 6-of-11 shooting.

Marcin Gortat played well for the Magic in the first of five summer-league games. The seven-foot center lead all players with 6 assists to go along with 10 points and 12 rebounds.
Photo by John Raoux, the Associated Press

There were some rough patches, however. The Magic's defense, and Marcin Gortat in particular, was sometimes late in rotating, leading to open Nets shots. The Magic also turned the ball over 22 times, which can be expected of a team composed of mostly strangers. The team should be worried, though, if its players are still committing turnovers at that rate as this week's games progress.

Of the non-roster players who made an impact tonight, I'd say Kevin Kruger was the strongest. We already have three point guards -- Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling, and Jameer Nelson -- under contract for next year, and that doesn't even include free-agent Travis Diener. However, Arroyo and Dooling are mentioned as pieces of a sign-and-trade deal that would send them and Pat Garrity to Seattle for Rashard Lewis and Earl Watson. Diener's potential departure would leave the Magic with only Nelson and Watson to bring the ball up. Kruger would fit in nicely as the third point guard. He had three assists tonight, and made plenty more great passes that didn't lead to buckets. He also has three-point range. The Magic should keep their eye on him, especially if they are still in discussions to make that trade with Seattle.

The Magic take the floor again tomorrow to face the Indiana Pacers. The game will start approximately 20 minutes after the completion of the Heat/Nets contest, which starts at 3:00 PM. Each game in this week's League is streamed live and free of charge on this page of the Magic's website.

ESPN: Grant Hill to Sign with Phoenix Suns

Just a day after withdrawing their offer to Darko Milicic, the Orlando Magic lost another free-agent on Thursday when Grant Hill agreed to a two-year deal with the Phoenix Suns. ESPN.com has the story, as does the Orlando Sentinel.

Grant Hill is leaving the Magic for Phoenix Suns, with whom he will attempt to rock 'n' sock the West's best teams next season.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

I made the case for keeping Grant Hill a month ago, and I stand by all my statements. I would have loved to see Grant in a Magic uniform for another season, at least long enough to let J.J. Redick prove himself as a starter. Alas, that won't happen, and Grant's departure leaves a huge void at the two-guard.

With Grant Hill's departure, Keith Bogans, Keyon Dooling, and J.J. Redick all figure to play more minutes at shooting guard next season.
Bogans photo by Bill Koshroun, the Associated Press; Dooling photo by Jacob Langston, the Orlando Sentinel; Redick photo by Phelan M. Ebanhack, the Associated Press

That said, I'm happy for Grant. He made the decision that was best for him, and I can't fault him for it. Not only will he play for a title contender, but he may even get the chance to start for one; the ESPN article to which I linked mentions that either Hill or Boris Diaw will get the starting nod for Mike D'Antoni's team next season. Grant's choice speaks volumes about his character. He's not content with riding someone else's coattails on the way to a title, as Mitch Richmond did with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2002; he wants to contribute and to earn his money, which will be $3 million over two seasons.

I'll close with some ammunition for those of you who do not share my admiration for Grant Hill. We paid Grant $93 M over the course of his contract, which translates into approximately:

• $455,882.35 per game, or
• $27,844.31 per point, or
• $14110.15 per minute.

Grant Hill may be a great basketball player, but if NBA-ers were rated in Consumer Reports, Hill would certainly not be a 'Best Buy'.

Garrity Exercises Player Option and Dwight Gets Richer

The Magic's website reported yesterday that Pat Garrity has exercised his player option and will play for the Magic next season. It will be his ninth year in the franchise.

Pat Garrity attempts a shot over Emeka Okafor of the Charlotte Bobcats. Magic fans don't need game footage to be able to accurately guess the result of this play.

Photo by Chuck Burton, the Associated Press

This news shouldn't surprise anyone. Garrity is no longer an NBA-level talent, and he knows it. He won't ever again get the opportunity to earn such a ridiculous salary, so exercising his option adds another $3 M to his bank account and gives him another year to mull post-basketball career choices. Considering his tenure with the team, and his overall likability, I imagine he'll at least be offered a community relations position like the one Nick Anderson has now.

I hate to report old news, but the Sentinel didn't have anything about it in its write-up about Keyon Dooling yesterday. Earlier today, Sentinel writer Tim Povtak incorrectly reported Dwight Howard's draft year, engendering a wave of mean-spirited comments in the article's feedback section. In case you're wondering, the article reports that Dwight Howard fits big into the Magic's future plans (SHOCKING!) and will eventually command 25% of the team's total salary. If that doesn't boggle the mind enough, consider this: the average salary on his five-year, $85 M extension is $16.94 M, which Povtak reports is the highest in franchise history. Keep in mind that all-stars Shaquille O'Neal, Penny Hardaway, Tracy McGrady, and Grant Hill have all played here and Dwight's big payday seems that much bigger. Wow.

What a slow news week its been. I'm sure everything'll heat up next week, as free agency begins just a week from Sunday. Rumors will be flying and I'll be here to humbly offer my take on them. Stay tuned.

Keyon Dooling Picks Up Option, Will Play for Magic

Keyon Dooling may not be built like a tank, but he sure plays like one.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

The headline to this Sentinel article, published today, informs readers that former Magic coach Brian Hill will likely take a coaching position with the New Jersey Nets, rejecting the Magic's offer of a front-office position. Hill apparently has no interest in remaining with the team that's fired him twice over the course of his career. Big whoop.

Buried at the bottom of that item is this lovely news:

Earlier this week, Magic guard Keyon Dooling picked up the option on his original three-year contract, bypassing the chance to become a free agent next month. Dooling will be making an estimated $3.5 million.
[....]
"I learned more from one year with Stan [Van Gundy] than I did in my first four years in the league,"' said Dooling, who started his career with the Los Angeles Clippers. "He'll be a great asset to the team. [His hiring] only made me more excited about coming back."

I'm not bashful in proclaiming my love for Keyon. He was one of the six players in my 'Top of the Class' category for last season's evaluations; his intensity and defense make him one of the most valuable players on this team, and his familiarity with Stan Van Gundy only makes him more valuable. Add to that his relatively low salary and you have a great NBA role-player.

When I make the following point, other Magic fans begin to question my sanity:

Keyon Dooling should start for this team.

He'll never be a great shooter, and I know that. I also know that there are few other teams in the league for which he would start. However, the same could be said for the other point guards on our roster: Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo, and Travis Diener. Nelson, the current starter, brings youth, energy, and scoring. However, he's woefully inconsistent and a sieve on defense. By starting Keyon, Van Gundy would give the Magic a chance to set up the offense and get into a rhythm at the start of the game. I don't see the harm in that.

The youth and energy that some fans cite as evidence that Nelson should start is actually evidence to the contrary: why not bring Jameer into the game at about the six-minute mark of the first quarter? The other team's starters will likely be a bit winded, and he can use his speed to blow right by them on his way to the basket for an easy layup.

There are few players in the league who can keep pace with Jameer Nelson.
Photo by Roberto Gonzalez, Orlando Sentinel

I understand that this argument is a slippery slope; after all, Jameer just finished his third season, during which he saw a decline in field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage, points per game, and assists per game. I'm willing to attribute some of that decline to bad coaching, but after such a season, Jameer's viability as a starter must be called into question. The Magic can depend on Keyon to provide nine points and six assists if he's given the chance to start. Jameer would certainly score more frequently, but his assist totals would be lower than Keyon's. Steve Nash, the two-time MVP and the best point guard in the NBA, summarized the job description for point guards in this way:

My goal is to increase the odds of success for each player on the floor, but without negating the odds of success for everyone else in the process.

In other words, point guards should look to pass before he should look to shoot. If Nelson is to start, he's going to have to get his priorities straight.

For a lively debate about Jameer Nelson and his value, read this thread on the MagicMadnees forums. And thanks to Black and Blue for pointing me in the direction of the Sentinel article to which I linked above.

Stan's Whiteboard Provides Entire Minutes of Speculation

Ugh! The past week has been interminable, what with the worst NBA Finals in the history of history and all. Perhaps that is why I am so amused by this story on the Orlando Sentinel's website, which briefly discusses Stan Van Gundy's search for assistant coaches. The best bit of information is that Van Gundy is putting a lot of thought into finding an assistant to work specifically with Dwight Howard:

"I do think with big guys, they are a little predisposed to listen to guys who played that position," Van Gundy said. "I can teach low-post stuff, but he'd be looking at me like 'what?'"

Maybe he should ask Shaquille what his plans are.

I was more entertained by the following photo of Stan's whiteboard, which he uses to keep track of meetings with Magic players.

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

The players appear to be ordered by position, then by depth. The first four are point guards, the next three are shooting guards, and the next two are small forwards. After that, the reasoning as to the order is anyone's guess. Maybe Stan thinks of every player listed after Trevor Ariza as a power forward?

Whatever. It's a great picture because so much can be gleaned from so little:

• Darko Milicic, Hedo Turkoglu, and Travis Diener have absolutely nothing next to their names, which seems to indicate they haven't been in touch at all. I guess it's hard to contact people in the far-off lands of Serbia, Turkey, and Wisconsin.
• Keyon Dooling is lumped in with the point guards, which is great news to me because he's more effective at the point and should be given a chance to start.
• The best part about the whole whiteboard is the question mark next to Keith Bogans' name. Why is it there? Perhaps Stan is wondering, along with the rest of Magic Nation, what the hell Keith Bogans is doing on the roster.

So, when's that draft again? Oh, and we don't have any first-round picks?

Damn.

Well, if you find yourself bored during the wait for Magic news, I humbly suggest the following diversions:

• Black and Blue's blog, which has made rating Magic cheerleaders a regular Friday thing.
• HarpringSucks, a Utah Jazz-themed blog with a questionable name. The Jazz players/Star Wars characters comparison was particularly hilarious. Busting on Gordan Giricek never gets old.

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

I sincerely hope we're able to make it through the next week alive. Until then...

Warner Independent Pictures

Grading the Magic, Part One - Top of the Class

We Magic fans are in a period of limbo: the Magic have been eliminated from the playoffs, yet the draft and free agency are still a month away. As such, I thought I'd now would be as good a time as ever to submit individual grades for each Magic player. I've decided to split the players into three different groups: Top of the Class, or the players who had above-average seasons; Middle of the Road, or the players who did about as well as expected; and Better Luck Next Year, or players who either underperformed or did not play frequently enough to be evaluated fairly .

Today's post concerns the Top of the Class. I welcome your comments and criticisms.

Trevor Ariza, Forward				#1
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	8.9	4.4	.539	B
	Last season's move to acquire Trevor from the Knicks in exchange for Steve Francis is paying off. His numbers aren't astounding, but Trevor is almost as important to this team as Dwight is. Case in point: The Magic went 5-15 after Ariza injured his knee against Golden State in January, derailing the team's season. I want to give him higher marks, but his pitiful postseason play (2.8 ppg, .313 FG%) won't allow me to.

Carlos Arroyo, Guard				#30
	Points Per Game	Assists Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	7.7	2.8	.425	B -
	Despite what Brian Hill thinks, Carlos Arroyo is a quality point guard. He was dropped out of the rotation in mid-April after a string of games in which he shot just .388 from the field. Poor shooting aside, Carlos is a purer point guard than starter Jameer Nelson is, as he averages 7.4 assists per 48 minutes -- 0.6 more than Nelson -- and commits fewer turnovers. The Magic committed more turnovers than any other team this season, and Arroyo's efficiency could correct that. I'd like to see him compete for the starting job next season.

Keyon Dooling, Guard				#5
	Points Per Game	Assists Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	7.9	1.7	.410	B
	Make no mistake -- Keyon Dooling needs work on the offensive end. In a loss at Dallas on March 3rd, Dooling turned in the worst offensive performance of any Magic player this season, making none of his seven shots. Why did he get high marks from me? Well, you can't spell 'Dooling' without 'D'. Data from 82games.com show that Keyon held opposing point guards to a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of just 11.5, which is 3.5 below the league average. He gets added commendation for his versatility, as he can play either guard position. If he improves his shot, he should challenge Carlos Arroyo and Jameer Nelson for the staring point guard job.

Grant Hill, Guard				#33
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	14.4	3.6	.518	B +
	It's been a rough seven years for Grant Hill. He's had numerous surgeries on his troublesome left ankle and, consequently, has played in just 200 of a possible 592 games since he's been with the Magic. This year was his best with the team, as he managed to play into April for the first time. He also keyed the Magic's playoff run, averaging 15.9 points per game on .596 shooting from the field in that month. I wonder how well this team would have played if Hill had not missed 17 games with various injuries. His contract expires this off-season. It'd be a shame to see him go, because veteran leadership is hard to come by.

Dwight Howard, Center				#12
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	17.6	12.3	.603	A
	Making the All-Star team at midseason and the All-NBA third team at season’s end were great milestones for Howard, who asserted himself as a star in just his third pro season. Proof that Dwight’s future is blindingly bright: the month of February, in which he shot 70.7% from the field and averaged 22.8 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. Proof that Dwight is still a work-in-progress: dreadful free throw shooting (.586%) and ballhandling (3.87 turnovers per game).

Darko Milicic, Forward				#31
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Blocks Per Game	GRADE
	8.0	5.5	1.8	B
	It was nice to see Darko's hook shot improve from "line-drive thrown into the rim hapazardly" to "softly released ball arcing beautifully into the hoop." It was also disconcerting to see the big fella get down on himself early in games, then play halfheartedly through the rest of them, as though missing his first few shots caused the death of a cat somewhere. However, a down-in-the-dumps Darko Milicic is still better than any Tony Battie, and there's no reason why Darko shouldn't start next year... unless he signs with another team in the offseason.

Next in the series: Middle of the Road.

Code Blue, Indeed: Pistons 93, Magic 77

Our first home playoff game in four years featured the promotion "Code Blue." It makes sense, given our team's color palette, but it also rates about a 9 on the Unintentional Comedy Scale. Code Blue is used in hospitals to indicate that a patient's heart has stopped beating - it signals "a real or suspected imminent loss of life," according to You Know Who.

"Real imminent loss of life" seems to describe our predicament now that we're down 3-0 in a best-of-seven series. Including the regular season, we're 0-7 against Detroit in 2006/2007. If that isn't an indication of which team is better, I don't know what is.

The most frustrating thing about this whole series has been the fact that we've played well throughout. The missed free throws and turnovers that plagued us in Game 1 seem to have been corrected. Detroit just has an answer for everything we throw at them. They're like BoBo dolls or something.


The point at which the season flashed before my eyes came just before halftime. With the Magic down by one after a Jameer Nelson jumper, Tayshaun Prince responded for Detroit with a jumper of his own with :02 to play in the half. ALL THE MAGIC HAD TO DO WAS INBOUND THE BALL. Hedo Turkoglu threw the inbounds pass too far for a streaking Jameer Nelson to catch up with it. Prince stole the ball, then chucked it to Chauncey Billups, who coolly nailed a three-pointer as the buzzer sounded. The Pistons scored 5 points in the span of two seconds to take a 6-point lead, not to mention TONS of momentum, into the locker room.

We were just picked apart tonight. We played hard, but the Pistons played harder. They outrebounded us, forced us into more turnovers, and had icewater in their veins the whole night. There isn't much left for us to try. Were Jameer to have a crappy game tonight, I'd expect to see Keyon Dooling start for him in Game 4. However, Jameer came out of nowhere to score 27 points on 10-of-19 shooting, so it doesn't make much sense to bench him after that performance.

So do we bench Hedo Turkoglu and Grant Hill, who both played miserably tonight? Not a chance. They both had bad nights, but they aren't the reason we lost the game. While it's true that tonight's game would have been much closer had those maintained their high level of play from the first two games of the series, there's no way to determine for sure if that would have lead to a win.

Not everything was bad, though. Jameer broke out of his slump, Darko played hard and well, and we executed our offense effectively. We were just outplayed by a better team. That's what it comes down to.

At this point, Magic fans, we have nothing to lose except the series. I hope we play passionate, inspired basketball on Saturday in Game 4, which Brian Hill called "a pride game" for us. Speaking of pride, it disgusts me that some fans left with 5:59 to play and the Magic down 11. It sends the message to the team that it's more important for the "fans" to get home early so they can catch C.S.I. on their TiVo than it is for them to support their team. I could almost understand leaving if the Magic were down 20, or were shooting 28%, or had not played competitively the whole night. But this team was still in the game. Indefensible.


I hope the O-Rena sells out for Game 4, and I hope we stay alive to force a Game 5 in Auburn Hills. For now, I suppose, the Magic are just happy to be in the playoffs, although they can't be happy with their current standing.

The Art of Divination

The season may not be over, but already rumors are swirling about the Magic's future, particularly as it pertains to the point guard position. Here's the two pieces of information I found to be most interesting:

• According to Brian Schmitz, Magic free-agent-to-be Travis Diener doesn't think he fits in with the team's long-term plans.
• According to Tim Povtak, former Magic player and current Memphis Grizzly Chucky Atkins, also a free-agent-to-be, wouldn't mind returning to Orlando this offseason.

Well, you might as well put it on the board, right? Diener wants a chance to play and Atkins wants to finish his career where he grew up -- he used to play for Evans High in Orlando. I think it's a near certainty that the Magic will let Diener go -- heck, they offered him to Charlotte for Melvin Ely a few months ago -- and the odds are great that the Magic will at least consider signing Atkins. But would that be a wise move? To check, I decided to examine the numbers.
I took each player's season totals and adjusted them equal to 40 minutes of playing time so a fair comparison could be made. Because it appears as though Jameer Nelson is, for better or for worse, the Magic's starting point guard of the future, it's unlikely that either player would see 40 minutes of action in an actual game, but I digress. The numbers favor Atkins, but the only statistical category in which he completely outperforms Diener is scoring. Although the Magic have had trouble scoring this season, they can look to one of the big-name free agents this summer -- Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, and Gerald Wallace among them -- to fix that area of their game. Further, when Atkins' age and proneness to injury are taken into account, the two players are essentially equal.

For me, the key category is assists per turnover. The Magic commit the second-highest amount of turnovers per game while averaging the second-fewest amount of assists. Diener would figure to improve both those categories. Further, Diener is a better shooter than his field goal percentage indicates. Adjusted field goal percentage is a more precise measurement of how well a player is shooting. ESPN explains it this way:

ADJ FG% measures shooting efficiency by taking into account the total points a player produces through his field goal attempts. The intention of this adjustment is largely to evaluate the impact of three-point shooting. For ex: If Shaquille O'Neal has 3-5 FG, all two-point shots for 6 points, then his ADJ FG% = [(6/5)]/2 = .600. Meanwhile, if Ray Allen is 2-5 FG, but his 2 FGM are both three-pointers for 6 points, then his ADJ FG% = [(6/5)]/2 = .600

Thus, Diener is actually the better shooter of the two players. Skeptics might mention that the Orlando doesn't need help in that department because it's 4th in the league in field goal percentage, but that's a lame argument; how can I guy who effectively shoots better than 50% possibly hurt a team if he takes care of the basketball? Okay, Diener is undersized and lacks quickness, making him a defensive liability. So what? Atkins is essentially the same size as Diener is, and he's much older. Plus, the Magic have Dwight Howard guarding the lane on defense; if a Diener, Atkins, or whoever plays the point lets the guy they're supposed to be guarding blow by them, Howard will be in the lane to block the shot, or at least to alter it.

Don't get me wrong, though. I like Chucky Atkins. I attended a few games during the 1999/2000 season when he was with the Magic and admired his effort. However, the Magic have a long-term need at point guard, and Atkins isn't the answer. I'd hate to see his career devolve the way Bo Outlaw's or Pat Garrity's did; those two once-proud players are now essentially being paid to be nice in the locker room and mentor the Magic's young core of players. Chucky deserves better.


My point is this: Travis Diener can be of use to the Magic as a third point guard who can one day become the backup or even start in spot duty. Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling, although they are not much older than Diener, are not the long-term answer at the position. Diener will be a restricted free agent this summer, meaning the Magic have the right to match any offer another team makes. They'd be wise to do so.

Blood in the Water: Magic 117, Bucks 94

As any longtime Magic fan can attest, there are just some things the Magic can't do: get out of the first round of the playoffs, draft well, hang on to the ball, and beat the Lakers. And although I wasn't aware of it before yesterday, there's another thing the Magic have difficulty with: winning in Milwaukee. Prior to last night's stomping of the Bucks in the Bradley Center, the Magic had lost 15 of their last 16 in that building and had not won there since 2002. They even lost there earlier this season when the Bucks were without Michael Redd, their best player. Talk about your house of horrors.


The Bucks offered little resistance to the Magic last night. I have to admit, however, that I was worried when Milwaukee made 7 of its first 8 shots to open the game, but that worry soon vanished when the Bucks got cold, failing to score a field goal for nearly the entire final 3:46 of the period until Lynn Greer (who?) made a jumper at the buzzer. Orlando, on the other hand, never seemed to cool off, tying a season-best for accuracy by shooting 62.5% from the floor for the game.

I'm sure cynics will try to downplay the impact of this win because Milwaukee was without three of its starters (Redd, Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villanueva) and only had one player taller than 6'5", but at the risk of stating the obvious, a win is a win. The Magic are still in the thick of the playoff hunt, holding a 1.5 game advantage over Indiana for the 8th playoff spot in the East and trailing New Jersey by just .5 a game for the 7th spot. The playoffs are still very much possible for this team. Also consider that the Magic's only two losses this month game by a combined 4 points and you'll see that they have been playing much better lately. The Magic are playing well when it counts? You've got to be kidding.


Am I surprised that the Magic won? Moderately. I'm more encouraged than I am anything else. The Magic have dropped games to some pretty miserable teams this year, so seeing them come out and play hard against crappy competition was encouraging. They knew they had to win this game, which Brian Schmitz called a "must-win". And they did it without a great effort from veteran leader Grant Hill, who scored 7 points on just 3-of-8 from the field. Instead, Hedo Turkoglu continued his hot streak by scoring 25 points on a sizzling 10-of-15 from the floor. Darko Milicic, who had been playing in a fog, scored 11 points on a perfect 5-of-5 shooting performance to go along with 9 rebounds and 4 assists. Jameer Nelson, whom I have criticized heavily in this blog, put together a fine game by scoring 12 points on 50% shooting, just the third time he has made over half his shots in a game since March 3rd. He also added a season-high 9 assists to raise his April average to 5.2 assists per game. Maybe this stretch will teach him that he doesn't need to shoot the ball for the Magic to be successful.

I think the following statistic sums up just how the Magic dominated last night: of the Magic's 50 made field goals, 12 of them were dunks. Milwaukee made 34 shots, only one of which was a dunk, and that came with under two minutes to play and both teams playing lackadaisically. Orlando now has 26 dunks in its past two games, a remarkably high total. Although I doubt that they'll be able to pick apart Detroit's defense on Wednesday night the way they've dismantled Milwaukee's and Memphis', they should have a great deal of confidence. Just look at Keyon Dooling here:


The intensity with which Dooling dunked in that photo is the sort of emotion everyone on this team needs to maintain if they are going to beat Detroit on Wednesday. The Pistons don't play soft.

Just ask Shaquille.