More Boring Than The Finals: An Orlando Magic Draft Recap

I don't think Magic fans expected much out of last night's draft. Hell, all I wanted was

• The Magic to draft a backup power forward, such as Marc Gasol or Herbert Hill, to eventually take over for Tony Battie.
  
• The whole event not to bore me as much as the Finals did.

I was let down on both counts.

Before the draft even began, the Magic sold one of their picks to the Houston Rockets, leaving Orlando with only the 44th overall selection. Their first-round pick belonged to Detroit as part of the Carlos Arroyo/Darko Milicic trade from February 2006, and Detroit used it on shooting guard Rodney Stuckey.

With the 44th pick, the Magic selected Reyshawn Terry from North Carolina. I'm not a college basketball fan in the slightest, but I was able to gather that Terry was a decent mid-range scorer who needed to work on his defense and maturity. Chad Ford of ESPN.com wrote that Terry was a "very good value pick". I was hoping that Terry could be brought in as a possible replacement for Grant Hill, who still hasn't decided if he wants to return to Orlando next season. He could also be used to replace Hedo Turkoglu if he is traded to clear up salary-cap room. Overall, I was moderately pleased with the Magic's selection.

The Magic selected Reyshawn Terry of North Carolina with the 44th-overall pick. However, he wasn't with the team for long.
Photo by the Associated Press

That changed when I learned this morning that Terry was traded to the Dallas Mavericks for cash and their second-round selection, Milovan Rakovic, who was taken with the last overall pick. I suppose it's nice to have the cash, but what do we need Rakovic for? He'll stay in Serbia for the next several years. We already have the rights to Fran Vazquez and Marcin Gortat, two big-men who are still playing overseas and who may not play for the Magic for several seasons. The Department of Redundancy Department strikes again.

Overall, draft night was ominous. The Magic did nothing to improve themselves, whereas two bottom-dwelling teams in the Southeast Division did: the Atlanta Hawks took Al Horford and Acie Law, both of whom figure to be NBA-ready; and the Charlotte Bobcats traded with Golden State for explosive scorer Jason Richardson. Moreover, the Miami Heat have made known their interest in Rashard Lewis, whom the Magic have at the top of their free-agent wishlist.

The division-rival Charlotte Bobcats acquired Jason Richardson from Golden State in exchange for Brandan Wright, whom Charlotte selected with the 8th pick in the draft.

Photo by Brian Bahr, Getty Images

The only team that did Orlando a favor last night was Washington, which inexplicably drafted Dominic McGuire, a small forward, despite already having Caron Butler, an All-Star, at the position. Nevermind the fact that their best center is Etan Thomas, who is a better writer than he is a basketball player.

The entire Southeast Division landscape has shifted over the course of one night. Its standings could get turned on its head next season, which would -- perhaps appropriately, given the franchise's history -- leave the Magic in third place, where they finished last season.

I hope, for our sakes, that free-agency is kind to us. Given the way our divisional opponents improved, we need it now more than ever.

The Orlando Magic Free-Agency Countdown, Part Five: Rashard Lewis

As the July 1 start of NBA's free-agency period comes closer, 3QC is taking a look at the free agents who may be able to help the Magic the most by counting down from the 5th-best option to the best option. Today's post concerns the player who should be the Magic's first choice: Rashard Lewis.

Throughout this week's countdown, I've stressed that the Magic need to sign a guy this summer who keeps the so-called "window of opportunity" open for several years. We have a young team that isn't ready to contend immediately and still needs to develop further; thus, it does us no good to sign an established, on-the-decline superstar. Vince Carter and Chauncey Billups are in their thirties, so their long-term value to the Magic is minimal. Mo Williams may be the right age, but he wouldn't generate enough buzz around the team, nor would he improve it single-handedly. Gerald Wallace fits the bill in terms of age and skills, but he's an injury risk. That leaves us Rashard Lewis, the Seattle SuperSonic and All-Star who opted out of his contract and will become an unrestricted free agent.

The Magic's Trevor Ariza and Dwight Howard used to worry about containing Rashard Lewis. If they're lucky, they'll get to play alongside him next season.
Photo by Kevin P. Casey, Associated Press

It's hard to find a negative in Lewis' game, at least as far as the Magic are concerned. Lewis would provide some much-needed scoring -- his 22.4 per-game average last season was a career-best. He also rebounds well. As a bonus, Lewis is remarkably durable; Even counting the time he missed last season with a dislocated finger, Lewis has appeared in 87% of the Sonics' games in his nine-year career. Further, he's just 27 and has improved his scoring in each of the past four seasons. Essentially, Rashard Lewis is the Magic's best bet on the free-agent market. He's young enough to produce consistently as the younger players around him develop their games, he can score, and he rarely gets injured.

Money, as always, is an issue. Lewis is believed to be seeking a deal in the $13-15 M range. If he won't settle for less, the Magic would likely have to reluctantly jettison Darko Milicic, whom they hoped to re-sign. The only scenario that would allow for both Milicic and Lewis to play in Orlando next season involves trading away a player with an average-sized contract. The player who makes the most sense in that regard is Hedo Turkoglu, who makes $5 M a season and plays Lewis' position of small forward.

Magic fans shouldn't be bowled over if Hedo Turkoglu is traded to clear salary-cap space for Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

Although Lewis clearly wants to play for a winner, it won't be easy to pry him from Seattle. Last night, the Sonics traded Ray Allen, their other All-Star, to the Boston Celtics for Jeff Green, whom they selected with the fifth overall pick, and some other players. With Allen gone, the Sonics are left with Green and Kevin Durant, whom they drafted second, to lead the team. Seattle's ownership can be pretty inept, but I don't think they would let go of two of their All-Stars in the same summer. Lewis declined a two-year, $25 M extension from the Sonics before opting out, but he might be more inclined to listen to them knowing that he would play alongside Durant and Green. Additionally, Seattle can offer him a six-year deal, whereas other teams can offer him five years. Because NBA contracts are guaranteed, an extra year makes a world of difference financially, and Lewis may indeed be enticed to stay.

The chance to share the floor with the electrifying Kevin Durant may persuade Rashard Lewis to stay with the Sonics.
Photo by Jason DeCrow, Associated Press

All that said, I think Lewis would be foolish to stay in Seattle. I mean no disrespect to the Sonics, because they're actually one of my favorite teams, but Orlando is the better destination for Lewis. The Sonics will likely relocate within the next few years, and Lewis would eventually lose playing time to Durant. Further, Lewis has never had the opportunity to play alongside a dominant center like Dwight Howard. If LeBron James can single-handedly take the Cleveland Cavaliers to the NBA Finals, how far could the inside-out combination of Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis take the Magic, especially in arguably the worst conference in North American professional sports? Another consideration: the last time the Magic had a great center/wing player combination, it was Shaquille O'Neal and Penny Hardaway, and the Magic rode that combination into the NBA Finals in 1995.

We Magic fans should hope lightning strikes twice.

Monday: Part One in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Vince Carter.
Tuesday: Part Two in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Mo Williams.
Wednesday: Part Three in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Chauncey Billups.
Yesterday: Part Four in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Gerald Wallace.
Today: Part Five in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Rashard Lewis.

The Orlando Magic Free-Agency Countdown, Part Four: Gerald Wallace

As the July 1 start of NBA's free-agency period comes closer, 3QC is taking a look at the free agents who may be able to help the Magic the most by counting down from the 5th-best option to the best option. Today's post concerns the player who should be the Magic's second resort: Gerald Wallace.

Earlier this summer, high-flying swingman Gerald Wallace was my top choice for the Magic. Admittedly, I'm biased; I have an inexplicable fondness for the Charlotte Bobcats, the team with which he spent the past three seasons. He also provides highlight-reel footage each night, mostly featuring his own acrobatic dunks, but occasionally involving ridiculous defensive plays, like this blocked dunk of Golden State's Al Harrington:



There's more to Wallace than what shows up in SportsCenter's Top 10. His freakish athleticism makes him very versatile: although naturally a small forward, he's quick enough to defend shooting guards, but long and strong enough to defend power forwards. He can also jump out of the gym. Those qualities apply on the offensive end as well. Gerald Wallace is not a Jack-of-all-trades in the manner Magic Johnson was, but he's a Jack-of-three-positions, and that's valuable.

Free-agent-to-be Gerald Wallace has become a star by combining incredible athleticism with strong fundamentals, like the jump shot shown in this photo. If he played in a bigger market, he'd be a household name by now.

For all his strengths, this potential Magic free-agent signee is -- and stop me if you've heard this before -- an injury risk. Bethlehem Shoals of FreeDarko, writing about Gilbert Arenas' season-ending injury after a collision with Wallace, imparted this wisdom about Gerald:

Wallace is a force of nature whose productivity depends on how out of control he can get. And he's a former football enthusiast who still looks like one.

Indeed, Wallace's health has to be a big concern for teams interested in signing him. As frustrating as it sounds, the Magic may actually have to decline Wallace and his services, or at least put them lower on their wishlist, because there's no telling if he'll be able to play an entire season. Make no mistake, though: If Wallace were capable of playing 75 games and post last season's per-game averages of 18 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block, the Magic would have to prefer him over everyone else available. However, Wallace has played in just 197 of a possible 246 games, or 80%. If that sounds low, it should. Amazingly, 80% is exactly double the rate of games in which Grant Hill has played with the Magic in his tenure here, so go figure.

Injuries aside, there's another reason not to sign Wallace: it'd be a Department of Redundancy Department move. Why? The Magic already have one long, versatile, athletic small forward who lights up the highlight reels: Trevor Ariza. If he's is as good as the Magic believe he is, then Ariza will be posting Wallace-like numbers within three years anyway. What good does it do the Magic to have two players with the same skill-set and who play the same position on their roster? None, really.

That aside, however, the Magic need to consider Gerald Wallace a top priority even ahead of proven players Vince Carter and Chauncey Billups, both of whom are a bit too old to make the Magic a contending team. I can understand, begrudgingly, why the Magic would be hesitant to rate him so highly. It wasn't too long ago when we spent big bucks on a free agent with a history of injuries, and that didn't turn out so well.

Magic fans know the sight of Grant Hill, the team's last big free-agent acquisition, in street clothes all too well: he has appeared in only 40% of the games the Magic have played over the past six seasons.
Photo by Fernando Medina, Getty Images

If the Magic are interested, Wallace will be available. Yesterday, he declined an extension with the Bobcats and will be an unrestricted free agent on July 1st. If the Bobcats get involved in a bidding war for Wallace, they'll likely lose, as they are notoriously stingy. Will the Magic roll the dice on the high-risk/high-reward free agent with the Presidential-sounding name? There's no telling either way right now, but they sure as heck could do worse.

Monday: Part One in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Vince Carter.
Tuesday: Part Two in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Mo Williams.
Yesterday: Part Three in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Chauncey Billups.
Tomorrow: Part Five in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown.

The Orlando Magic Free-Agency Countdown, Part Three: Chauncey Billups

As the July 1 start of NBA's free-agency period comes closer, 3QC is taking a look at the free agents who may be able to help the Magic the most by counting down from the 5th-best option to the best option. Today's post concerns the player who should be the Magic's third resort: Chauncey Billups.

One could argue that Chauncey Billups is the fifth-most-hated NBA personality to Magic fans, ranking just after Shaquille O'Neal, Tracy McGrady, John Weisbrod, and Brian Hill. Billups has torched the Magic throughout his career, and especially in the playoffs. For whatever reason, he has it out for us, and he lets it show on the basketball court.

Yet it shouldn't come as a surprise that most Magic fans would welcome Chauncey back to Orlando*. He's a two-time All-Star and an NBA Finals MVP. He's also a big, physical point guard with great passing skills. Oh, and his nickname is "Mr. Big Shot," because he's as clutch as they come. The Magic, a team that looked confused during close games last season due in large part to their lack of a "go-to guy", would certainly welcome Billups' cajones in the clutch.

"Everybody on their feet. Perhaps the final possession of OT. Billups and Duhon... Duhon back out there... Chauncey rises ... GOT IT! 8.2 to go! He does it for the ten-billionth time with the game on the line! Unbelievable! This guy is fearless!"

Efficiency is also a plus with Billups. He posted 3.6 assists per turnover last season, which is above average, especially for a guy who has the ball all the time. And it's been repeated a thousand times by now, but it's still important: the Magic were second-to-last in turnovers per game last season. Contrast that with the Pistons, who were first. Taking Billups and his basketball IQ from Detroit and putting it on our team would certainly ease the disparity between the two teams. His free-throw shooting is also impressive, which makes him even more valuable down the stretch. When the Magic are leading with just a few minutes to play and the other team is forced to foul, Billups would be able to single-handedly close-out games. Hell, he did this number on us at the end of Game 4 in last season's playoffs.

Chauncey Billups celebrates with the NBA Finals MVP trophy after winning the 2003/2004 NBA title with the Detroit Pistons. His experience and passing skills would make him a good fit in Orlando.
Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein, Getty Images

However, there are a few downsides to Billups, at least as far as the Magic are concerned. He doesn't address the Magic's biggest need: perimeter scoring. Sure, he averaged 17 points per game last season for Detroit, but that was a decline from his 18.5 average the season before. One reason he was able to even score that much is because the Pistons started three great back-to-the-basket players in the frontcourt: Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace, and Chris Webber. If any of those players were double-teamed, Billups could get a wide-open look. The only Magic player who commands a double-team is Dwight Howard, and he's turnover-prone; he can't be counted on to swing the ball back out to Billups for the wide-open three. As such, his scoring figures to drop in Orlando.

For one thing, he's no spring chicken: he'll be 31 by the time the season starts, which gives the Magic only a few years to develop their young talent into a title-contending team. Speaking metaphorically, why hire the ace pilot if you haven't finished building his plane yet?

The Orlando Sentinel reported yesterday that the Magic expect Billups to re-sign with Detroit, but they will "gauge his interest" in playing here. I applaud Otis Smith and his staff for taking this step, as it's another indication that the team is committed to winning**. However, the Magic have to ask themselves just when they want to win. Billups would certainly upgrade the team in the short-term, but he is not a long-term solution. The Magic could win 45+ games next season with Billups at the helm, but I wouldn't be surprised if that number dwindled as he aged. I know Magic fans want to win right away, but I prefer delayed gratification; that is, I prefer that we sign a younger guy who may not make us better immediately, but who could slowly make us great over the course of the next several seasons until we become legitimate title contenders.

I'd be more than happy to see Chauncey play for the Magic next season. I just wish he had more years left in him.

Monday: Part One in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Vince Carter.
Yesterday: Part Two in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Mo Williams.
Tomorrow: Part Four in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown.

NOTES:
*I say "back to" instead of just "to" because he was on the Magic's roster for part of the 1999/2000 season. He, along with Ron Mercer and Johnny Taylor, were acquired from Denver in exchange for Tariq Abdul-Wahad, Chris Gatling, and a draft pick. Billups spent his entire Magic career on the injured list and only appeared in-uniform once: for the team photo, which was taken at the end of the season. In August of 2000, the Magic renounced Billups' rights to make salary cap room to sign -- are you ready for this? -- Grant Hill.

**If the Billy Donovan Saga proved anything, it's that Otis is not afraid of going after the big names; he wants to win at any cost.

The Orlando Magic Free-Agency Countdown, Part Two: Mo Williams

As the July 1 start of NBA's free-agency period comes closer, 3QC is taking a look at the free agents who may be able to help the Magic the most by counting down from the 5th-best option to the best option. Today's post concerns the player who should be the Magic's fourth resort: Mo Williams.

"Mo who?!"

That's the reaction most people have whenever Mo Williams' name comes up. Playing for the small-market Milwaukee Bucks can damage one's name recognition. Don't let his relative anonymity fool you, though: Mo Williams is a point guard who is capable of bringing stability to the Magic's backcourt.

The Milwaukee Bucks' Mo Williams looks to pass the ball to teammate Dan Gadzuric against the Indiana Pacers. Though he's far from a household name, Williams possesses the skills necessary to take the Magic to the next level.
Photo by the Associated Press

By no means is Williams a superstar, and that has its advantages. He won't command a maximum salary; in fact, the New York Daily News reports Williams is asking for $9 M a year, which is a bargain. The Magic would not have to clear much cap space, if any, to sign Williams and retain Darko Milicic, another one of the team's priorities. Williams also won't face very high expectations in Orlando if he chooses to come here. The same can't be said about any of the other top free agents, who will be under intense scrutiny to succeed.

But there's a major downside to not signing a household name in free agency: Mo Williams will not put fans in the seats of the Orlando Arena, not by a longshot. Ultimately, the NBA is in the entertainment industry. Like everything else, it all comes down to the bottom line. Would the Magic invest $9 M a year in a free agent who would not make the big splash that another, higher-priced free agent would? I don't know the team's ownership well enough to tell either way, but the fact that it's even a question has to raise concerns.

Questions about marketability aside, Mo Williams is a solid player. He averaged 17.3 points per game last season, which would have been good for second on the Magic last season. Better yet, he distributes the ball well, averaging 6.1 assists per game. There is a concern about his passing, though: he also averaged 2.97 turnovers a game last season, which is high. The Magic were second-to-last in the league in turnovers last season and ball control is certainly one of Stan Van Gundy's higher priorities heading into 2007/2008. Perhaps Williams' high .845 career free-throw percentage balances out his turnovers. The Magic ranked 28th out of 30 teams in free-throw percentage in 2006/2007, and having a point guard who can "earn it at the line" would increase that woeful percentage.

There's one last problem when it comes to signing Mo Williams, and it has to do with confidence. Bringing in a free-agent starting point guard means benching current starter Jameer Nelson for sure. Jameer struggled in his third year as a pro, his second as a starter, and the Magic aren't sure if they're going to give him a big contract extension like the one teammate Dwight Howard will sign in the coming weeks. Jameer is essentially in a contract year now, and the Magic should want him to have enough opportunities to earn that contract. Replacing Jameer in the starting lineup with an All-Star is one thing; replacing him with a talented unknown is quite another. Essentially, the Magic need to avoid burning any bridges with Jameer, and signing Mo Williams may complicate things.

The Magic's Jameer Nelson, shown here near the end of a playoff loss to the Detroit Pistons, may have his confidence shaken if the Magic sign Mo Williams.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

The whole thing may be moot, though. Yahoo! Sports cites an item in the Journal Times that says the Memphis Grizzlies are interested in Williams and may make a play for him on draft night. The real interesting part, though, is what league sources are saying about the Magic's interest:

The Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, and Charlotte Bobcats will also have salary cap room to pursue Williams, but officials from each of those aforementioned teams said it wasn't likely they'd do so.

So Mo Williams may never wear a Magic uniform, and that may be for the best. However, his reasonable salary and solid skills would make him a welcome addition to a team in need of backcourt consistency.

Yesterday: Part One in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Vince Carter.
Tomorrow: Part Three in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown.

The Orlando Magic Free-Agency Countdown, Part One: Vince Carter

As the July 1 start of NBA's free-agency period comes closer, 3QC is taking a look at the free agents who may be able to help the Magic the most by counting down from the 5th-best option to the best option. Today's post concerns the player who should be the Magic's fifth resort: Vince Carter.

What I'm about to write may make me a blasphemer, at least in the Central Florida area, but I have to write it anyway:

Vince Carter is overrated.

Vince Carter wowed the crowd with this between-the-legs flush during 2000's NBA Slam Dunk contest at All-Star weekend. His performance in the competition put him on the map and increased his star-status.

Sure, he can still score with the best of them; last season, he finished seventh in scoring with 25.2 points per game. But his attitude leaves much to be desired, and his age has to be a concern.

Let's not forget the manner in which he left the Toronto Raptors, the team that traded for him as soon as he was drafted and made him a star. He demanded a trade from them after six-plus seasons, frustrated with management for not providing him with enough talent, a drama eerily similar to the one currently playing out with the Los Angeles Lakers and Kobe Bryant. After getting traded to the Nets, Carter admitted that he did not give his best effort in Toronto:

"In years past, no, [I did not push myself]. I was fortunate to have the talent ... you get spoiled when you're able to do a lot of things. You see that you don't have to work at it."

Once joining the Nets in a trade in December 2004, Carter's scoring, shooting, rebounding, and assists totals increased. Although it's true he played more minutes, the nature of the comments he made makes one question whether he just "flipped a switch" and decided to play hard. That has to trouble Carter's potential suitors because it demonstrates that Carter is capable of holding himself back considerably and to the detriment of the team.

His ability to play well in clutch situations should also be in question, especially after last season's mental lapses in the Nets' playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. In a Game 4 loss, which put the Nets down three games to one, Carter scored 25 points, but made just six of his 23 shots. Worse still, he dribbled the ball out of bounds off his foot with his team down two points with under two seconds to play. A skilled veteran such as Carter should have at least been able to get a shot off in that situation, but he instead choked under pressure and failed to deliver his team the victory.

Vince Carter reacts to being called for a foul during the Nets' season-ending playoff loss to the Cavaliers. Carter's attitude and age should be concerns for the Magic.
Photo by Noah K. Murray, The Star-Ledger

The playoff woes don't end there. In Game 6, with his team down three games to two and needing a win to stay alive, Carter put on Harry Potter's invisibility cloak; he simply did not show up. In 41 minutes, he scored 11 points on just 11 shot attempts, made only three of five free throws, and turned the ball over five times. That lackadaisical performance is indicative of a lack of killer instinct and leadership skills, two psychological components the Magic are in desperate need of.

I'd be more inclined to look past those failures if Carter were younger. However, he turned 30 in January, and is just slightly past his prime. Ideally, Dwight Howard and whomever the Magic sign this summer would enter their physical peak at the same time, thus giving the Magic enough time to fill out their roster with quality role players in hopes of contending for a title. Thus, Carter's age makes him less than ideal as a free-agent, at least as far as the Magic are concerned.

That said, he would seem to fit in with Orlando. It's no secret that the Magic need scoring, and could use another All-Star to pair with Howard to win games and to bring fans into the Amway Arena. Carter also hails from nearby Daytona Beach, making him that much more marketable in The City Beautiful.

Maybe I'm being too harsh in my assessment of Carter. He has been an All-Star in each of the past eight seasons and is one of the league's premier scorers. But he distinguished himself not with stellar play during games, but with jaw-dropping dunks during one of the league's more memorable All-Star Weekends. And that's not something I can get over.

Luckily for all parties involved, it appears as though Carter and the Nets are close to reaching an agreement on a contract extension, according to the Star-Ledger. It's just as well. The Nets are closer to contending than the Magic are, so his age isn't as much a concern in the Garden State.

Would I be sad to see Vince Carter in a Magic uniform? No, because he's still talented. However, I would be disappointed knowing that the Magic could have done better.

Tomorrow: Part Two in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown.

2008 Free Agency and its Impact on the Magic: Will Trevor Ariza Stay?

I wondered why some articles discussing this year's free agent class -- which includes All-Stars Chauncey Billups and Vince Carter as well as up-and-coming talents Mo Williams and Gerald Wallace -- described it as "weak."

Well, now I know.

This nifty rundown for Insider subscribers (which was available for free yesterday) by ESPN's John Hollinger shows that as many as 10 superstars could be on the free-agent market next summer if they a) don't sign extensions or b) exercise their Early Termination Option (ETO). The top five players listed: Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, and Shawn Marion, all of whom are All-Stars.

The Clippers' Elton Brand is just one of many All-Stars who might be free agents next summer, John Hollinger writes.
Photo by Mark Avery, Associated Press

Hollinger concedes that the possibility of all those players actually being available is slim; it's a lock, for instance, that Duncan will not exercise his ETO. Why? Well, there's no reason for him to want to leave the Spurs; they're perennial championship contenders and they play in a city he loves. Some of that certainty takes away from the fun of the article, but it's still well worth reading, especially considering the implications for the Magic.

John Hollinger thinks Trevor Ariza will attract a lot of attention on the free-agent market next summer. With moves like this dunk over Jermaine O'Neal, it's not hard to imagine why.
Photo by Stephen M. Dowell, Orlando Sentinel

After discussing the superstars with ETOs, Hollinger moves on to discuss lesser-known players with that ability who might attract some attention. He lists Keith Bogans, then writes that the most notable player from that group is our very own Trevor Ariza, whose salary Hollinger describes as "way below market."

It's true that Ariza is underpaid; last season, he earned just $3.1 M, only the ninth-best salary on the team. If he gets the starting small forward position this season and performs well, he'll have made an even stronger case that he's worth more money than he's getting. Thus, I'd expect him to opt-out, but only so he can renegotiate his contract and raise his salary. Barring an unexpected development, the Pistons' Chauncey Billups will do the same thing this summer, and the Wizards' Gilbert Arenas has already said he will do the same thing next summer.

As a Magic fan, the possibility of Trevor opting out scares me. While it seems unlikely that he'd want to go anywhere else, the Magic are notorious for lowballing their own free agents, with the most famous example being Shaquille O'Neal. However, Otis Smith seems committed to Trevor. After re-signing him last summer, Smith had the following to say:

“We are very pleased to bring Trevor back, as he is a key part of our young core. His athleticism and explosiveness will be a great asset to our team on both ends of the floor.”

Amen, Otis. Don't let this future star soar away.

Garrity Exercises Player Option and Dwight Gets Richer

The Magic's website reported yesterday that Pat Garrity has exercised his player option and will play for the Magic next season. It will be his ninth year in the franchise.

Pat Garrity attempts a shot over Emeka Okafor of the Charlotte Bobcats. Magic fans don't need game footage to be able to accurately guess the result of this play.

Photo by Chuck Burton, the Associated Press

This news shouldn't surprise anyone. Garrity is no longer an NBA-level talent, and he knows it. He won't ever again get the opportunity to earn such a ridiculous salary, so exercising his option adds another $3 M to his bank account and gives him another year to mull post-basketball career choices. Considering his tenure with the team, and his overall likability, I imagine he'll at least be offered a community relations position like the one Nick Anderson has now.

I hate to report old news, but the Sentinel didn't have anything about it in its write-up about Keyon Dooling yesterday. Earlier today, Sentinel writer Tim Povtak incorrectly reported Dwight Howard's draft year, engendering a wave of mean-spirited comments in the article's feedback section. In case you're wondering, the article reports that Dwight Howard fits big into the Magic's future plans (SHOCKING!) and will eventually command 25% of the team's total salary. If that doesn't boggle the mind enough, consider this: the average salary on his five-year, $85 M extension is $16.94 M, which Povtak reports is the highest in franchise history. Keep in mind that all-stars Shaquille O'Neal, Penny Hardaway, Tracy McGrady, and Grant Hill have all played here and Dwight's big payday seems that much bigger. Wow.

What a slow news week its been. I'm sure everything'll heat up next week, as free agency begins just a week from Sunday. Rumors will be flying and I'll be here to humbly offer my take on them. Stay tuned.

Keyon Dooling Picks Up Option, Will Play for Magic

Keyon Dooling may not be built like a tank, but he sure plays like one.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

The headline to this Sentinel article, published today, informs readers that former Magic coach Brian Hill will likely take a coaching position with the New Jersey Nets, rejecting the Magic's offer of a front-office position. Hill apparently has no interest in remaining with the team that's fired him twice over the course of his career. Big whoop.

Buried at the bottom of that item is this lovely news:

Earlier this week, Magic guard Keyon Dooling picked up the option on his original three-year contract, bypassing the chance to become a free agent next month. Dooling will be making an estimated $3.5 million.
[....]
"I learned more from one year with Stan [Van Gundy] than I did in my first four years in the league,"' said Dooling, who started his career with the Los Angeles Clippers. "He'll be a great asset to the team. [His hiring] only made me more excited about coming back."

I'm not bashful in proclaiming my love for Keyon. He was one of the six players in my 'Top of the Class' category for last season's evaluations; his intensity and defense make him one of the most valuable players on this team, and his familiarity with Stan Van Gundy only makes him more valuable. Add to that his relatively low salary and you have a great NBA role-player.

When I make the following point, other Magic fans begin to question my sanity:

Keyon Dooling should start for this team.

He'll never be a great shooter, and I know that. I also know that there are few other teams in the league for which he would start. However, the same could be said for the other point guards on our roster: Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo, and Travis Diener. Nelson, the current starter, brings youth, energy, and scoring. However, he's woefully inconsistent and a sieve on defense. By starting Keyon, Van Gundy would give the Magic a chance to set up the offense and get into a rhythm at the start of the game. I don't see the harm in that.

The youth and energy that some fans cite as evidence that Nelson should start is actually evidence to the contrary: why not bring Jameer into the game at about the six-minute mark of the first quarter? The other team's starters will likely be a bit winded, and he can use his speed to blow right by them on his way to the basket for an easy layup.

There are few players in the league who can keep pace with Jameer Nelson.
Photo by Roberto Gonzalez, Orlando Sentinel

I understand that this argument is a slippery slope; after all, Jameer just finished his third season, during which he saw a decline in field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage, points per game, and assists per game. I'm willing to attribute some of that decline to bad coaching, but after such a season, Jameer's viability as a starter must be called into question. The Magic can depend on Keyon to provide nine points and six assists if he's given the chance to start. Jameer would certainly score more frequently, but his assist totals would be lower than Keyon's. Steve Nash, the two-time MVP and the best point guard in the NBA, summarized the job description for point guards in this way:

My goal is to increase the odds of success for each player on the floor, but without negating the odds of success for everyone else in the process.

In other words, point guards should look to pass before he should look to shoot. If Nelson is to start, he's going to have to get his priorities straight.

For a lively debate about Jameer Nelson and his value, read this thread on the MagicMadnees forums. And thanks to Black and Blue for pointing me in the direction of the Sentinel article to which I linked above.