I Hope You Haven't Bought your Magic/Blazers tickets yet...

... because Greg Oden's rookie season is over before it really began due to microfracture surgery performed today. The 2007/2008 NBA season just got a whole lot less interesting.

What does this news mean for the Magic? Nothing, really. But it should be relevant to Magic fans. The night of the draft lottery, I wrote that Greg Oden and Brandon Roy could team-up to form an inside-out combination to rival the Shaq-and-Penny tandem the Magic had in the 1990s. Now that scenario is even more likely, as Tom Ziller pointed out. Given that the Blazers didn't improve by much this offseason, there's a great chance they'll be in the lottery again next season, which would (presumably) give them three cornerstone-caliber players under the age of 24 headed into the 2008/2009 season. Voltron connected.

On Second Thought...: Using Statistics to Re-do the All-Defense Lineup

One week ago today, I made a post in which I wrote that Keyon Dooling should start at point guard for the Magic if the team went with a defense-oriented starting lineup. My reasoning came from objectively watching Dooling play; he's the best defender the Magic have under 6'6" tall. He also played minutes at point guard down the stretch last season as Carlos Arroyo fell out of favor with Brian Hill.

All the recent discussion about the validity of statistics in the basketblogosphere got me thinking, "How would that defensive-oriented lineup change if I were to use statistics instead of my own knowledge about the players?" I’ll go into two possibilities in that regard momentarily.

The statistics discussion began over at Plissken at the Buzzer, where Carter Blanchard poo-pooed John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) because it rated the likes of Brent Barry and Earl Boykins more highly than it rated Lamar Odom. Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty responded in this post on Ballhype, and the discussion has spun-off into so many posts on so many blogs that it’s hard to keep them straight.

I personally put a fair amount of trust in PER because it

• Compiles a player's offensive and defensive statistics into one number,
• Adjusts that number for playing-time and league pace, and
• Normalizes that number to 15 each season; that is, a marginal player will have a PER below 15 and a good player will have a PER above 15.

Using data from the incomparable 82games, here is what the Magic's best defensive lineup would be, derived from subtracting the PER a player allows opponents he is guarding from a player’s own PER:

1. Carlos Arroyo (15.6 own, 14.3 allowed, +1.3)
2. Keyon Dooling (11.2 own, 13.4 allowed -2.2)
3. Rashard Lewis (21.6 own, 15.5 allowed, +6.1)
4. Tony Battie (10.3 own, 15.2 allowed, -4.9)
5. Dwight Howard (23 own, 12.9 allowed +10.1)

Notice that Dooling and Battie allow better PERs than they post themselves. What’s sad is that those two players were, by this measure, the best at their respective positions last season even with those negative differences.

However, this lineup only works if you trust PER and 82games' assessment of each player's position; according to that site, for instance, Dooling was on the floor for 35% of the Magic's total minutes last season, and he spent 88.5% of that time at shooting guard. The table, available here, is reproduced in image form below:


But a statistical system in which Lamar Odom (15.9 points per game, 9.8 rebounds per game, 4.8 assists per game in 2006/2007; 16.1 PER) is rated lower than Brent Barry (8.5 points per game, 2.1 rebounds per game, 1.8 assists per game in 2006/2007; 16.6 PER) surely must be flawed, right? After all, players who rarely get off the bench do not have a fair amount of data from which to draw their PERs, which is why our very own James Augustine (a total of 7 minutes played in two games last season) posted a PER of 16.6, which also exceeds Lamar Odom's showing.

Perhaps a better indicator of a player's defensive effectiveness is his plus/minus rating, adjusted on a per-100 possessions basis. For instance, the Magic allowed 106.1 points per 100 possessions when Dwight Howard was on the floor, but just 105.4 points per 100 possessions when he was off it. Using this information, we can see that, at least last season, the Magic were actually a slightly better defensive team when Howard was not in the game.

Here's how the all-defense lineup looks when using on-court/off-court defensive performance as the criterion. Note that a negative differential is good because it means the team allows fewer points per 100 possessions when the player is on the floor:

1. Carlos Arroyo (103.8 on, 106.9 off, -3.1)
   
2. Keith Bogans (105.7 on, 106.0 off, -0.3)
   
3. Trevor Ariza (103.1 on, 107.2 off, -4.1)
   
4. Tony Battie (103.4 on, 107.5 off, -4.1)
   
5. Dwight Howard (106.1 on, 105.4 off, +0.7)
   

Interesting how Keith Bogans and Trevor Ariza show up here, but not in the previous list. This indicates, at least to me, that Bogans and Ariza are better team defenders than they are individual defenders.

Even more interesting: Dooling’s per-100 possession defensive differential isn’t so great; when he is on the floor, the Magic allow 108.1 points per 100 possessions. But when he’s off the floor, the Magic’s defense is better, allowing 104.6 points per 100 possessions. I have no idea how to explain that. Even more puzzling is Jameer Nelson’s numbers. When he’s on the floor, the Magic allow 107.1 points per 100 possessions. Does that mean that Jameer is a better defender than Keyon is? It seems to indicate that fact is true, although we, as Magic fans, know it not to be.

I now pose the question to you: if you had to select a defensive-oriented starting lineup for the Magic, whom would you choose?

This discussion of statistics has left me tired; I need to shut my brain off, and perhaps you do too. For you, then, I present Hedo Turkoglu getting dunked on by Marco Belinelli in Eurobasket competition. No wonder Turk doesn't appear on any of these defensive lineups, although, in fairness, he was the weak-side defender on the play and was not responsible for Belinelli getting into the lane.

Thanks to Tom Ziller for originally posting that clip over at AOL Fanhouse.

Trips Down Memory Lane: ESPN Remembers Two Magic/Bulls Playoff Games

I've come to accept that, even with Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard, the Magic aren't on most sports fans' radar, and haven't been for quite some time. That's why I was delighted to see these two items on ESPN.com recently.

First, and rather depressingly, is Kelly Dwyer's look back at Game 1 of the Magic's Eastern Conference Finals series against Chicago. The Bulls crushed us by 38 points, we went on to lose the series, Shaquille O'Neal left us that summer, and we still haven't fully recovered. Still, Magic fans can look forward to reading Dwyer's shots at Brian Hill. This one was my favorite:

3Q, 11:50: Things are about to fall apart for Orlando. Pippen grabs an offensive rebound after a Jordan miss, stops on the baseline (with a live dribble) some eight feet away from the hoop, and every Magic defender runs away from him. Pippen gets an uncontested layup. Hardaway throws it away on the next possession - the Magic were trying to post up Dennis Scott on Ron Harper. That's Brian Hill's answer. More post-ups for Dennis Scott.

But the Worldwide Leader did have some good news for Magic fans. The ever-loathsome Bill Simmons has selected the Magic's Game 6 victory over Chicago from 1995 as the last of seven games to replayed on ESPN Classic on Wednesday nights leading up to the 2007/2008 NBA season. The series starts this Wednesday with a Cavs/Celtics game from 1992 and runs through the Magic/Bulls game on October 24th. Get your DVRs ready!

But Simmons wouldn't be Simmons if he weren't disparaging cities for no real reason. In his NFL picks this week, he details why fans in Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Miami hate him before writing this nugget of joy about the City Beautiful:

(Next up: Orlando! If you ever wanted to know why the terrorists hate us, just spend a week there and it will all make sense. I've been there twice and there won't be a third time. No wonder Shaq fled for L.A.)

Feel free to send him a nasty email. I have better things to do than to personally respond to the musings of a hack writer with unwarranted grudges.

A final note of mild relevance: the Nuggets have agreed to trade Reggie Evans and the draft rights to Ricky Sanchez to Philadelphia for Steven Hunter (remember him?) and Bobby Jones. This move ensures the Magic won't be acquiring Evans, one of the league's premier rebounders, despite rumors that they had been talking to Denver about a possible trade.

Floyd Nelson Remembered and 2007/2008 Promotions Announced

First, I apologize for the delay between posts. I took a spontaneous vacation this weekend, which (mercifully) kept me away from my computer. Now that it's over, I'll be able to post regularly again, and continue the series of posts on possible starting lineups for next year.

While I was at the beach, Jameer Nelson gathered with family and friends in Chester, PA at a memorial service for his father, Floyd Nelson, who was found dead in the Delaware River last week after disappearing from his job as a tugboat repairman. The Philadelphia Inquirer's story, which I found via a post by Deanna Gugel in Brian Schmitz's Magic blog, can be read here.

Gugel also reported over the weekend that people who want to send Jameer their condolences can do so by mailing their card to the Magic's team office. Donations can be sent to the Nelson family care of Cornerstone Management, 944 County Line Road, Bryn Mawr, PA 19013.

On a much lighter note, I've updated the sidebar with a link to the Magic's 2007/2008 promotions page. You'll DEFINITELY want to get tickets for the December 7th game against the Indiana Pacers. Why? The giveaway is a super-cool Dwight Howard action figure, which shows D12 performing his infamous sticker dunk. You'll also get the added bonus of seeing former Magic player Travis Diener start for the Pacers, as Jamaal Tinsley will surely be jailed/injured by then.

Fun With Rotations: 2007/2008 Starting Lineup Possibilities, Part Two

There are only three givens for this year's Magic starting lineup: Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard will be there. After that, it's anyone's guess as to who else will be there, and which position they'll play. 3QC breaks down the possibilities.

Tuesday's entry covered the All-Firepower lineup. This one features its philosophical opposite...

The All-Defense Lineup

1. Keyon Dooling
   
2. Trevor Ariza
3. Rashard Lewis
4. Tony Battie
5. Dwight Howard

This lineup surrounds the Lewis/Howard core with Dooling, Ariza, and Battie, three blue-collar defenders. It relegates Jameer to the bench, which frees him up to come into games and immediately look to score rather than look to set-up his teammates. There's no way that Jameer won't be the opening-night starter, but I'm willing to put that aside just for the sake of argument. Starting Keyon ensures that the opposition's starter will be worn down offensively. What we'd then have to bank on is that Jameer is able to run that starter ragged once he enters the game, forcing the opposition to go to its backup. In other words, this lineup trades early offense for later offense. Make of that what you will.

The major flaw in this configuration, however, is the opposite problem the All-Firepower one has: there are too few offensive weapons on the floor to start the game. Dooling has never been known for his scoring abilities nor for his ability to run an offense; Tony Battie has only one reliable offensive option: the 18-foot jumper; and Trevor Ariza feeds off of offensive rebounds and transition buckets rather than off of having plays called for him. Further, Dwight struggles with creating shots for himself, leaving Rashard as the only true playmaker. I suspect there would be plenty of standing-around going on in this lineup, which works well only when playing with elite talents like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan.

Basically, this lineup wouldn't be a bad one to use for small stretches, but it's not one that would be effective to start a game; it's not balanced enough. Relegating Jameer, Hedo Turkoglu, and J.J. Redick to the bench is just too risky because any of those players, when given starter's minutes, could go for 25 points on any given night.

As always, the comments section is open for discussion. There will be more entries in this series in the coming days.

Darko Will Do Horrible Things to You

I'm not sure if Darko Milicic news is still relevant to this site, but this nugget bears passing along. Darko, displeased with the refs in Serbia's loss to Greece in FIBA competition, said the following after the game:

"I will find the referees, murder them and then f--- their daughters"

Like wow, Scoob. If only he played as hard as he cursed; then he might actually live up to the hype.

You can watch the Serbian Gangster's blast on YouTube by clicking here. Don't worry about getting called into your boss' office later; it's in a foreign language.

And if you're in the mood for more Darko temper-tantrums, there's this YouTube gem, complete with homerriffic commentary by the Raptors' announcers:

In more Magic-related news, another rotation post should be up later this evening.

Thanks to Bethlethem Shoals for first posting this story over at FanHouse.

Fun With Rotations: 2007/2008 Starting Lineup Possibilities, Part One

There are only three givens for this year's Magic starting lineup: Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard will be there. After that, it's anyone's guess as to who else will be there, and which position they'll play. 3QC breaks down the possibilities.

The All-Firepower Lineup

1. Jameer Nelson
2. J.J. Redick
3. Hedo Turkoglu
   
4. Rashard Lewis
5. Dwight Howard

As evidenced by the title, this lineup puts the Magic's most prolific scorers at each position on the floor to start the game. Nelson sets up the offense; Redick, Turkoglu, and Lewis spread the defense with their long-range shooting skills; and Howard clogs the lane on defense and posts-up on offense. Sounds great... at first.

There's a real drawback to putting this lineup on the floor to start the game: depth. Just ask four-time NBA champion coach Gregg Popovich why he keeps Manu Ginobili on his bench while he starts veteran Michael Finley. It's not a great idea to have your second-unit be comprised of -- and perhaps this term is too harsh -- scrubs. Where would the offense come from once the first-unit is off the floor? Carlos Arroyo? Keyon Dooling? Tony Battie? Yuck.

There's also a problem on the defensive end; Nelson, Redick, Turkoglu, and Lewis are regarded as below-average in that facet of the game. Further, Lewis is naturally a small forward, so he is unaccustomed to guarding power forwards. While he could certainly handle the more modern perimeter-oriented fours, the traditional, back-to-the-basket ones would give him fits. Rashard is needed for his offense, and he needs to keep his legs fresh. We can't have him spending all his energy on defense.

So although this starting lineup certainly would pack a punch, some games are won and lost based on reserve play, which eliminates this lineup from serious consideration.

Look for more lineup entries later in the week. Until then, discuss this one's viability in the comments section. Hope you enjoyed your Labor Day, everyone.

Floyd Nelson's Body Likely Found

Rescue workers search the Delaware River for the body of Floyd Nelson on Friday. A body found in the river on Saturday is likely to be his.
Photo by Matt Rourke, the Associated Press

Several news outlets, including ESPN, are reporting that the body pulled from the Delaware River earlier today is likely that of Floyd Nelson, father of Magic guard Jameer Nelson:

Police in Delaware said a boater called 911 on Saturday after spotting the body of a black male floating in the river near Fox Point Park in Wilmington. The body was recovered around 2 p.m.

There was a "strong likelihood" that the body was Floyd Nelson's but police were unable to confirm it, said Delaware State Police spokesman Sgt. Joshua A. Bushweller.

Floyd Nelson was 57 years old and a Vietnam veteran. He worked as a tugboat repairman in Pennsylvania.

I'm saddened by this news and would like to extend my deepest sympathy to the Nelson family. If the Nelson family asks for donations to charitable organizations in Floyd's name, I'll be sure to post the names of those organizations here.

The Southeast Division Outlook, Part Five: Washington Wizards

Before going on with today's preview, I'd like to acknowledge that divers in Pennsylvania are searching the Delaware river for Floyd Nelson, Jameer Nelson's father, who went missing from his tugboat repair shop job yesterday. It doesn't look like much good can come of this, and my thoughts are with Jameer and his family. For what it's worth, Mr. Nelson wrote a book about Jameer, which can be purchased from Amazon.com by clicking here.

And now, the preview, sans introductory text:

Washington Wizards
Last season: 41-41, second in Southeast
Additions:

• Guard Nick Young (via draft)
• Guard Dominic McGuire (via draft)
• Center Oleksiy Pecherov (via 2005 draft)

Losses:

• Forward Jarvis Hayes (via free-agency to Detroit)

The Wizards are a tough team to figure out. When healthy, the trio of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antoine Jamison is one of the best in the league; any one of those guys is capable of scoring 40 points on any given night. Their biggest weakness was their complete lack of an interior presence; Etan Thomas just isn't cutting it.

Naturally, the solution for the Wizards' lack of a pivot-man was for them to spend their two draft picks this year on guards. When I first sat down to write this piece, I was ready to dismiss the Wizards as irrelevant, at least for the coming season. But then I looked at the Eastern standings from last season, and I was astonished at how good the Wizards are when their big three is healthy. In fact, they controlled the Southeast division for an eleven-week span, only yielding to the Heat when Arenas and Butler went down with season-ending injuries.

Washington didn't address its biggest area of need, but it also didn't lose much; only Jarvis Hayes is gone, and he was a marginal player. Essentially, the Wizards are fielding the exact same team that was a conference contender for much of last season. I expect them to maintain that position this year.