Hold On For Dear Life: Magic 88, Celtics 86

If there's a textbook definition of "backing in to the playoffs", I imagine that tonight's white-knuckle victory over Boston matches it almost exactly. After pummeling the Celtics 30-19 in the third quarter to take a 19-point lead into the fourth, the Celtics stormed back and nearly stole one from us.

Well, maybe I should check that. The Celtics didn't so much as storm back as much as we gave them an engraved invitation to beat us. We didn't hit any shots over the last 6:44 of the period, only mustering three free throws over that span. Meanwhile, we messed around with the ball so badly that it nearly cost us the game. The full play-by-play is available here, but a summary of our miscues in that stretch is shown in this chart:


If there's a better case for why the Magic need a go-to scorer, I'd like to see it. Jameer Nelson, who has made himself our top clutch option this season, committed the most actions that resulted in a Boston possession. He had an otherwise good game before melting down here, which is exactly what he needs to AVOID if he is going to carry this team for the future.


It also occurs to me that Grant Hill is conspicuous in his absence from that chart; he didn't even take a shot. As the veteran leader, you'd think that he'd be getting the ball in these tight situations. I put some of the blame for Hill's lack of usage on Jameer; after all, it's his job to GIVE TEAMMATES THE BALL when they need it. At this point, I'm about 85% sure that Carlos Arroyo should be playing more minutes. He has more experience. The entire population of Puerto Rico has been saying this for the past month.

I know I sound angry and bitter, but I assure you that I'm glad we made the playoffs. It's been entirely too long, and it'll be good for the youngsters to get some postseason experience. We're virtually locked in to the 8th seed, which means a first-round matchup with Detroit, which means a fairly early trip home. Nonetheless, It's good that we'll be playing more than 82 games this season.

What I'm most concerned about now is momentum. The bottom dropped out tonight, and I can only hope that we're able to duplicate our otherwise solid play this month. Look at it like this: we were two last-second Hedo Turkoglu blocked shots away from going into overtime with the Celtics in a game we lead by 19 points. OMINOUS.


Anyway, we visit Washington on Tuesday, which got thumped badly by Chicago earlier today, so the Wizards will certainly be pumped up for that game. We can't afford to let up now that we've clinched because there's still a chance, however slim, that we could leapfrog them in the standings and thus draw a more favorable first-round playoff opponent. So, sadly, it appears as though we've seen the last of James Augustine and Travis Diener.

Shine On Me: Magic 104, 76ers 87

Grant Hill has plenty to clap about. Although he didn't have a great game, one of his teammates sure did, and it could not have come at a better time for the Magic.

I'll let Dwight Howard's linescore speak for itself:
35 points, 14-15 field goals, 7-10 free throws, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals in 43 minutes.

Shaq who?

The Magic went into Philadelphia today and made a huge statement by blowing out the 76ers and ending that team's remote playoff hopes. The Magic themselves increased their lead over Indiana for the 8th playoff spot in the East to two games.

It's one thing to pick up a win after a heartbreaking loss. It's quite another to go into another team's home floor and lead wire-to-wire in a double-digit victory. For me, the most pleasing numbers in this game's box score aren't those next to Dwight's name. In fact, the numbers to which I am alluding don't come next to any player's name. No, they're the quarter-by-quarter scores. We outscored Philly in each quarter, refusing to let up even when it became apparent that they didn't have a chance.


Really, it's hard to think of anything that went wrong for us today, except for Darko Milicic's embarrassing missed dunk.

On an individual level, there was Dwight's incredible performance, which included an improbable 13-foot bank shot from the left wing. Darko scored 14, including back-to-back 19-footers from the top of the key. Even Keith Bogans played well, scoring 5 points and grabbing 3 rebounds in only 8 minutes of action, which he probably would not have seen if J.J. Redick had not been deactivated due to a sore quad muscle.

The collective numbers are also good. We shot 53% while holding the 76ers to just 39%. We scored 104 points, the fifth time in this month's six games that we've exceeded 100 -- and the exception was against Detroit, against which we scored 99. Impressively, we had 25 assists on 43 field goals, and five players recorded at least three assists. In my recap for the Pistons game, I wrote that the Magic played as individuals rather than as a team, and that proved to be their undoing. Credit Brian Hill and the rest of the coaching staff for stressing ball movement and unselfish play in practice this week.

I can only hope that today's high level of play can carry over until tomorrow's game with Boston, which has shut down Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson, its two best players, for the rest of the season. The Celtics have guaranteed the league's second-worst record and, as such, their draft lottery position is assured. In other words, they're just playing out the season and waiting for the draft. If the Magic win -- and they should, barring a letdown of colossal proportions -- and the Pacers lose their game with the Nets, we'd clinch a playoff berth. So, as counterintuitive as it seems, we actually become Net fans tomorrow; after that, we can curse them all they want, as we want to steal the 7th playoff spot from them.

Summarily, we've played better in April than our 3-3 record indicates, even considering that our 3 wins came against some dreadful teams. If we keep playing this way for the rest of the season, we'll have a great deal of confidence heading into the playoffs. In an earlier entry, I wrote that the Magic needed to make a fourth quarter surge. Well, they've done that. Now all they have to do is keep it up.

Your Pretty Face Is Going to Hell: Pistons 104, Magic 99

"If we don't put ourselves in a hole against an elite team, then we would have given ourselves a better chance."

So said Brian Hill after his team's loss to the East powerhouse Detroit Pistons, who secured the conference's best record with their victory. I've defended Brian Hill in the past, but it's difficult to do so here. I'm not upset with his strategy as I am with his propensity to state the obvious. Yes, Brian, when you let one of the best teams in the league open up and 18-point lead on you, it's hard to win. Thank you for that insight.

Looking at the Magic's side of the box score, it's hard to figure how we lost. The Magic shot 50% from the field, 57% from three-point territory, outrebounded Detroit by a 37-31 margin, and committed just 10 turnovers. Those are remarkable numbers, especially when considering how abysmally we played in the first half. Here's a statistical breakdown:


Grant Hill single-handedly carried us in the first half. But his production dropped off precipitously in the second. Here's a comparison of second half statistics:


The team heated up from the field in the second half, but Grant Hill wasn't able to get involved. Couple that with dreadful free throw shooting, and the reason we lost becomes clearer: a lack of offensive balance. As illustrated in the above tables, Grant Hill took 9 shots in the first half, but just 3 in the second. Dwight Howard struggled from the field and from the foul line, but was continuously fed the ball on offense even though it was clear he was having an off night. The Magic seemed to be playing as individuals rather than as a team.



The irony of that? There's an NBA commercial in which Grant Hill voices over a video clip from last season that shows the Magic working the ball around the perimeter in a game against the Knicks. A final pass is made to an open Magic player, who makes the shot as Hill says "When we play as one, we'll beat any five." Well, the Magic didn't play as one on Wednesday night, and it showed in the result.

Perhaps no incident better illustrates that point than what took place at the end of the game. The Pistons had a two-point lead after Tayshaun Prince hit a hook shot to break a 95-95 tie. On the ensuing possession, Detroit's defense broke down and left Dwight Howard all alone under the basket. Despite his bad shooting night, Dwight aggressively called for the ball. Jameer Nelson somehow manged not to see him. Howard never got the ball; Nelson launched a terrible three-pointer that missed. Detroit gathered the rebound, and Chauncey "Mr. Big Shot" Billups put the nail in the Magic's coffin by draining a three-pointer to push Detroit's lead to 5 with :24 to play. Game over.

The loss moves our record to 36-42 and assures us our fourth straight losing season. I refuse to give up on this team, however; the playoffs are still in sight. Cleveland clobbered New Jersey last night to reduce the Nets' lead over us to one game. A strong finish to our season, coupled with a collapse by either New Jersey or Washington, should assure us a playoff berth. As long as we avoid the 8th seed, which would match us up with Detroit in the first round, we have a shot at pulling an upset and validating our existence.

The Magic enjoy a day off today before facing a gauntlet of four games in five nights. Go make The City Beautiful proud, fellas. It needs you.

Blood in the Water: Magic 117, Bucks 94

As any longtime Magic fan can attest, there are just some things the Magic can't do: get out of the first round of the playoffs, draft well, hang on to the ball, and beat the Lakers. And although I wasn't aware of it before yesterday, there's another thing the Magic have difficulty with: winning in Milwaukee. Prior to last night's stomping of the Bucks in the Bradley Center, the Magic had lost 15 of their last 16 in that building and had not won there since 2002. They even lost there earlier this season when the Bucks were without Michael Redd, their best player. Talk about your house of horrors.


The Bucks offered little resistance to the Magic last night. I have to admit, however, that I was worried when Milwaukee made 7 of its first 8 shots to open the game, but that worry soon vanished when the Bucks got cold, failing to score a field goal for nearly the entire final 3:46 of the period until Lynn Greer (who?) made a jumper at the buzzer. Orlando, on the other hand, never seemed to cool off, tying a season-best for accuracy by shooting 62.5% from the floor for the game.

I'm sure cynics will try to downplay the impact of this win because Milwaukee was without three of its starters (Redd, Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villanueva) and only had one player taller than 6'5", but at the risk of stating the obvious, a win is a win. The Magic are still in the thick of the playoff hunt, holding a 1.5 game advantage over Indiana for the 8th playoff spot in the East and trailing New Jersey by just .5 a game for the 7th spot. The playoffs are still very much possible for this team. Also consider that the Magic's only two losses this month game by a combined 4 points and you'll see that they have been playing much better lately. The Magic are playing well when it counts? You've got to be kidding.


Am I surprised that the Magic won? Moderately. I'm more encouraged than I am anything else. The Magic have dropped games to some pretty miserable teams this year, so seeing them come out and play hard against crappy competition was encouraging. They knew they had to win this game, which Brian Schmitz called a "must-win". And they did it without a great effort from veteran leader Grant Hill, who scored 7 points on just 3-of-8 from the field. Instead, Hedo Turkoglu continued his hot streak by scoring 25 points on a sizzling 10-of-15 from the floor. Darko Milicic, who had been playing in a fog, scored 11 points on a perfect 5-of-5 shooting performance to go along with 9 rebounds and 4 assists. Jameer Nelson, whom I have criticized heavily in this blog, put together a fine game by scoring 12 points on 50% shooting, just the third time he has made over half his shots in a game since March 3rd. He also added a season-high 9 assists to raise his April average to 5.2 assists per game. Maybe this stretch will teach him that he doesn't need to shoot the ball for the Magic to be successful.

I think the following statistic sums up just how the Magic dominated last night: of the Magic's 50 made field goals, 12 of them were dunks. Milwaukee made 34 shots, only one of which was a dunk, and that came with under two minutes to play and both teams playing lackadaisically. Orlando now has 26 dunks in its past two games, a remarkably high total. Although I doubt that they'll be able to pick apart Detroit's defense on Wednesday night the way they've dismantled Milwaukee's and Memphis', they should have a great deal of confidence. Just look at Keyon Dooling here:


The intensity with which Dooling dunked in that photo is the sort of emotion everyone on this team needs to maintain if they are going to beat Detroit on Wednesday. The Pistons don't play soft.

Just ask Shaquille.

Bill Walton Would Be So Proud: Magic 116, Grizzles 89

Anyone who has watched a nationally televised NBA game in the past 15 years has heard color commentator and former NBA player Bill Walton say his catchphrase at least 28 times: Throw it down, big fella!

The Magic sure heeded Walton's advice last night in a big victory over the Grizzlies. Dwight Howard, who leads the league in dunks, got 9 slam opportunities against a team not interested in boxing out, defense, or anything else in particular. But it wasn't just Dwight getting in on the action; Trevor Ariza threw down a pretty reverse on a fast break after a great steal, Darko Milicic dropped a tomahawk after getting a beautiful pass from Hedo Turkoglu, Grant Hill wound back the clock and slammed a tomahawk down, and Tony Battie managed a nice two-handed stuff in traffic. Simply put, the Magic were scoring at will. Granted, it was against the league's worst team, but let me repeat: the Magic were scoring at will.


One can point to any number of reasons for tonight's offensive outburst: defensive disinterestedness on the part of the Grizzlies, several players just "feeling it" from the field, etc. But what interests me most is that the Magic were running hard and playing well in transition. I have to wonder how well this team would have fared this season if they adopted a run-and-gun style earlier, which would minimize the its deficiency at point guard because it wouldn't be working out of a set halfcourt offense. That said, some teams are able to dictate the pace of games and would be able to prevent the Magic from running: Miami, in particular, can force even the high-octane Suns into an ugly, grind-it-out defensive struggle. But with just six games left, it seems like it'd be as good a time as any to experiment with a more free-flowing style of play. What do the Magic have to lose? A playoff berth?

Oops.

Yeah... about that. Despite the win, the Magic were unable to gain any ground on the New Jersey Nets for the 7th seed in the East, nor were they able to create any separation from the 9th-place Indiana Pacers. Both of those teams won their games last night and thus the playoff picture remains unchanged. Does that fact minimize the meaning of this game somehow?

The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, no. The Magic's past 3 losses were all soul-crushing: a double-OT loss to Boston, an OT loss to Minnesota, and a loss to Toronto in which the Magic lead by 13 after the first period. A game such as last night's can lift a team's spirits. It's not just that they won; it's that everything went their way. The easy dunks were not the only things that went right for Orlando: Dwight Howard banked in a free throw, Keyon Dooling hit jump shots at the closing seconds of both the first and third quarters, Grant Hill's dunk came during the waning seconds of the first half, and all twelve players scored.

What does the past tell us about how the Magic might perform tonight? Admittedly, not much. The Magic are 4-4 in games played subsequent to victories in which the margin of victory was 15 or greater. In the most recent case, the Magic lost at home to Chicago by 24 points after beating Milwaukee by 18, a turnaround of 42 points. As I documented in an earlier entry, the only constant in this Magic season has been consistent inconsistency.


Tonight's game against Milwaukee is of the utmost importance. Win big, big fellas.

Eponymous Minds: Raptors 111, Magic 108

If you had told me yesterday afternoon that the Magic would score 37 points in the first quarter of their game against Toronto, I would have laughed. The Magic's offense has been, well, offensive throughout the season, ranking 29th out of 30 teams in terms of points scored per game. Further, if you had told me that their 37-point first quarter would establish a 13-point lead on Toronto, I would have laughed harder.

But if you had told me that the Magic would end up losing the game because they couldn't hang on to the basketball and they couldn't defend the three-point line, I would have no trouble believing it. Those were the storylines in recent losses to Boston and Minnesota, and they were the storyline in last night's game as well. Say what you will about the questionable loose-ball foul called on Grant Hill after scrapping for a rebound with Raptors All-Star Chris Bosh, which lead to two made free throws and established the final margin, that didn't lose us the game. No, what cost us the game were turnovers and poor three-point defense. Again.

See the short guy on the left? That's Jameer Nelson watching as the man he is supposed to be guarding, T.J. Ford, blows by him and passes the ball out to the wing for a likely three-point attempt. Great D, Jameer.

The Magic committed 23 turnovers -- six more than their league-leading season average of 17 -- which lead to 31 Toronto points. More than half of those turnovers can be attributed to the tandem of Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu, both of whom had otherwise good games; Howard broke out of an offensive slump for 18 points and also grabbed 15 rebounds, and Turkoglu scored a career-high 37 points to go with 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals. What's astonishing about these turnovers is just how good this club would be if it could cut down on them. Imagine briefly that the Magic committed their season average of 17 turnovers. That's a high total, yes, and certainly far from ideal. However, when consider that the Raptors scored 1.37 points off each turnover, then multiply that figure by 17 and subtract the difference from the actual total, you'll see that the Raptors would have scored 8 fewer points and thus would have lost the game.

The three-point shot also felled the Magic. They allowed Toronto to shoot 9-of-19 (47.4%) from downtown. The Magic shot a better from long range at 50%, but that number is deceptive because the Magic made and attempted fewer three-pointers, going 6-of-12. Thus, the Magic were -9 on three-pointers in a game they only lost by three points.

So the Magic waste another precious home game; a career night from Hedo Turkoglu; a 52% team field-goal shooting performance; and a strong effort on the glass, outrebounding Toronto by a 41-27 margin. What does this game mean for the playoffs? The Nets' thumping of the Hawks solidified their lead over the Magic for the 7th playoff spot in the East and a likely first-round matchup with either Cleveland or Chicago, both of which the Magic have beaten so far this season. As it stands, the Magic have the 8th and final seed and would face Detroit, a team they have failed to beat this season. And as Brian Schmitz pointed out in his game recap, the Nets effectively have an extra game on the Magic because they own the tiebreaker.

Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out the eerie accuracy of this blog's name as it pertains to last night's game. The Magic finished the first quarter with a 13-point lead, then watched as it dwindled to 5 points at the end of the first half, then watched as Toronto outscored them 32-22 in the third quarter to take the lead for good. The Magic shot well in the 3rd, going 7-of-13 for 53.8%. However, they also had 8 turnovers in the quarter, which lead to 11 Toronto points.
Third quarter collapse, indeed.
Postscript - As if Brian Schmitz's blog entry about Darko's unhappiness didn't tell us enough, the erstwhile Human Victory Cigar further demonstrated his displeasure by picking up two technical fouls for arguing a dubious foul call and thus earning himself an ejection. All three of Darko's technicals this year have come against the Raptors, and last night's ejection was the first of his career. He finished the game with no points (0-0 field goals), two rebounds, and three personal fouls in 7 minutes.

Two-For-One Special: Magic 95, Pacers 87 and Timberwolves 105, Magic 104

I hope you can forgive me for not updating at all this weekend. I spent some time with family and was away from the Magic, at least for a bit.

Owning It

The most encouraging part about beating the Pacers on Friday wasn't the playoff implications; rather, it was the fact that we actually beat someone we were supposed to beat. We needed that win, especially after the debacle in Boston, and we did a good job of getting it.
There are two key stories coming out of this game. First, Grant Hill can still play. More importantly, his style of play is well suited to this struggling team. Facing an offensive drought in the third quarter, Hill repeatedly took the ball to the basket and got fouled. All too often, our young players are content to take jump shots when the team is winning, even if the shots aren't falling. Hill set an example by playing aggressively, but not being overly aggressive and sloppy. Perhaps the best way to describe Hill at his best is 'efficient': he scored 22 points while only taking 10 shots for an incredible 2.2 points-per-shot ratio. He also only turned the ball over once. In short, when Hill plays the way he did against the Pacers, the Magic are usually in good shape.
The second story is the following: Trevor Ariza is more important than anyone on this team not named Dwight Howard. Yes, Grant Hill played better than Ariza did in this game and is the better player overall, but he's also 13 years older and well past his prime. Defensively, Ariza is polished and only getting better. He averages about one steal per game, but that doesn't tell the whole story. He frustrates the hell out of opposing players and forces them to use all their energy trying to escape him, then he attacks them on the offensive end and blows right by them, often resulting in a thunderous slam. The way he changes games is remarkable and I'm not being facetious when I say that he could be a future all-star, or at least a dunk contest participant. Why not? With a consistent jump shot and more playing time, he's at least Gerald Wallace. No joke.

Blowing It
Brian Schmitz likened Sunday's loss to the Timberwolves to Wednesday's loss to the Celtics. It's hard to argue with that comparison. Both opponents are under .500, both opponents got out to early leads, both opponents were hot from three-point range, both games went into overtime, and both games involved missed shots by Jameer Nelson that could have won them. I want to be a half-full guy and say the Magic can at least be happy that they got back into those games after trailing, but it's impossible to be that way now because IT'S THE END OF THE SEASON. As Brian Hill said after the loss in Dallas, there's no such thing as a moral victory in the NBA. Fact: if the Magic had a killer instinct at all, they'd be 36-38 and riding a 5-game winning streak. Instead, they're 34-40 and demoralized heading into Wednesday's showdown with surging Toronto. Talk about your blown opportunities.

Blowing It Again
The recent run of missed clutch shots by Jameer Nelson piqued my curiosity; just how good is Nelson when it counts? Thank goodness for 82Games, which is slowly becoming my favorite NBA site. Why? It's for total statheads such as myself. As you can see, Jameer isn't as clutch as his game-winner against Sacramento would lead us to believe. He shoots just .327 in what that site calls clutch situations - fewer than 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime, neither team ahead or behind by more than 5 points. Summarily, it's time for Brian Hill to reconsider his clutch strategy of giving Nelson the ball. Brian Schmitz agrees.


The most frustrating thing about the whole situation is that it's no longer a matter of playing well enough to win; we've got that part down. Now, it becomes a matter of showing some killer instinct and putting opponents away when they're down. Grant Hill did it against Indiana by getting to the rim. Let's hope this team can follow his example in a metaphoric sense over the final 8 games of the season and into the playoffs, Rony Seikaly-willing.

That's Gross: Celtics 105, Magic 96 (2OT)

Seriously, boys, what the hell was that?
Here are my observations from last night's embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Conference-worst Boston Celtics:

We Need Carlos Arroyo More Than We Know
Had we won tonight, Carlos would have been the main reason why. Okay, his linescore doesn't pop out at you -- 6 points, 1 rebound, 1 blocked shot on 1-of-2 shooting in 11 minutes -- but just look at what he did when he came in:

• 2:11, 3rd quarter. Enters game for Tony Battie. Magic trail 56-63.
• 0:00, 3rd quarter. Magic trail 63-66.
• 8:12, 4th quarter. Hits 23-foot jumper. Magic trail 69-70
• 7:46, 4th quarter. Blocks Rajon Rondo's layup.
• 7:41, 4th quarter. Grabs a defensive rebound. On the ensuing possession, Trevor Ariza is fouled and makes both free throws. Magic lead 71-70.
• 7:20, 4th quarter. Draws an offensive foul on Ryan Gomes, forcing a turnover.
• 7:00, 4th quarter. Draws a personal foul on Ryan Gomes. With the Magic in the bonus, he hits both free throws. Magic lead 73-70.
• 4:15, 4th quarter. Draws a shooting foul on Rajon Rondo and hits both free throws. Magic lead 77-74.
• 3:16, 4th quarter. Leaves the game and is replaced by Jameer Nelson. Magic lead 77-76.

Okay, so the Magic were trailing by 7 when Arroyo entered the game and were leading by 1 when he left. That's a +/- differential of 8 points, which is fairly solid. This sort of play is what forced some people to believe earlier this season that Arroyo should start in place of Jameer Nelson. While it's true that he played very well last night, it's also true that Arroyo does not have the leadership skills to play 30+ minutes in a starter's role for the Magic. HOWEVER, could he really be much worse than Jameer? Food for thought.

We Might Want To Work On Our Shooting
Even after last night's shoddy performance, the Magic are 5th in the NBA in field goal percentage, making 46.7% of their shots. However, they shot just 41.7% against the Celtics, who are 24th in field goal percentage defense, typically allowing opponents to shoot a robust 46.5%. Why the poor shooting against such a poor team?

Well, it's not like we weren't getting open looks. In the first half, the Magic missed 7 layups, 3 of which were blocked. That trend continued into the second half, in which they made just 4 of 10 layups.

And the futility was not only limited to close shot attempts: for the game, the Magic shot 12-of-38 (31.5%) on two-point jump shots and 3-of-11 (27.3%) on three-point jump shots. Even with no one guarding them, the Magic couldn't make a basket, making just 23 of their 37 free throw attempts, or 62.2%. When a team can't hit from point-blank range, and its outside shot isn't falling, and it isn't converting on its free throw attempts, it's in trouble.

Here's a shot chart that only shows the Magic's missed shots for the entire game -- note how many misses there are in the painted area:


We Might Want To Guard Somebody
The Celtics are not the Suns; that is, they don't have the depth to beat you with any single player on any given night. No, for the Celtics to win, Paul Pierce has to carry them to victory. You might say that he did that last night. He hit the game-tying three-pointer to send the game into overtime, then scored all 7 of Boston's points in the first overtime. Note to the Magic coaching staff: Paul Pierce is a 5-time All-Star. He's good.

We Might Want To Take The Ball Out Of Tony Battie's Hands
Tony Battie, who averages just 6.3 points per game this season, scored 13 points last night. "Hey, offensive explosion! Go Tony!" Right?

Wrong.

Tony needed 17 shot attempts to score 13 points -- a terrible ratio. Further, 17 shot attempts tied for the most of any Magic player; Grant Hill was the other. Meanwhile, all-star center Dwight Howard took just 9 shots. Am I missing something here?

Overall, this loss had to be one of the most disappointing all season. Now 9 of the Magic's 39 losses have come against teams with records of .400 or worse. Do playoff-worthy teams play down to their competition so frequently? You tell me.

I was only going to publish the following photo if we won, but fuck it, Dwight Howard is a beast and the world needs to see proof:

Streaky like Supergirl's Cat: Magic 94, Knicks 89

To say that last night's defeat of the Knicks was huge would be like saying the Empire State Building is tall; it'd be a gross understatement. At this point in the season, every game is monumentally important, especially for teams trying to squeeze into the playoffs.

That said, like Friday's win over New Jersey, the game was not pretty. The Orlando Magic got the shots they wanted on offense, shooting 52.1% for the game, but almost literally gave the game way by committing 20 turnovers, which lead to 24 Knicks points. Another similarity to the New Jersey game: Jameer Nelson got it done in the clutch. He scored 12 of his 22 points in the 4th quarter against the Nets and followed that up with the game-tying and go-ahead three-pointers in the 4th quarter against the Knicks.

Here's what worries me about Jameer: he only shows up in the clutch. Now maybe that wouldn't be so bad, but then he went and said this:

"My teammates know that I like to take the big shot in the games, so they found me."

While I admire Jameer's confidence, I think he's missing the point. As the point guard, it is his job to find his teammates and get them the ball in position to score, not the other way around. Hitting big shots makes up for it, but what about the first 45 or so minutes of a game? Nelson has failed to record more than 7 assists in a single game all season, and he's averaging just 4.1 per game. He's also shooting a career-low 43.8% from the field and committing 2.4 turnovers per game. Finally, his 5'10" frame makes it hard for him to defend opposing guards, forcing him to commit 2.8 fouls per game.

To me, those numbers indicate that Jameer Nelson is not fit to be a starting point guard in the NBA. He does not shoot well, nor does he distribute the ball effectively. He's shown that he can score in bunches, most clearly in the Magic's improbable come-from-behind win against the Spurs in January, in which he scored 31 points on 60% shooting. Thus, I have to conclude that Nelson should be brought off the bench and look to score against other teams' second units.

So then we have to wonder whom the Magic should start. Despite playing a key role in the win against New Jersey, Carlos Arroyo seems to have played his way out of the rotation. Keyon Dooling, who had been used primarily as a shooting guard before last week, was a capable distributor and defender, but shot poorly and is not suited as a starting point guard in the NBA. That leaves little-used Travis Diener, who only plays in garbage time and thus never faces top competition.

In other words, we need a point guard. That's a subject I'll address in a future entry.

The inconsistency of the Magic's point guard play mirrors the team's inconsistency, which can be charted like so:

Now take a look at the graph for the NBA's top team, the Dallas Mavericks:
The Mavericks haven't lost more than 4 consecutive games all season -- and those were their first 4 games. Further, since that first week of the season the Mavericks have lost just 5 games and no more than 2 straight. That's a mind-boggling accomplishment.

Understand that I'm not saying that the Magic are capable of winning 17 straight games, as the Mavericks did earlier this season. Rather, I'm saying that good teams play consistently and beat the teams they're supposed to beat, something the Magic haven't done this year. Consider that the Magic have lost to these bottom-feeding teams:

• Thrice to Atlanta (27-45, .375)
• Twice to Charlotte (26-45, .366)
• Memphis (17-54, .239)
• Milwaukee (25-44, .362)
• Philadelphia (28-42, .400)

Yes, eight of the Magic's 38 losses this season have come against teams that are currently at .400 or worse. Do playoff teams lose such games? No.

I'll close with this thought: the Magic should make the playoffs. They have a comfortable remaining schedule and should win just enough games to get in, where they will play either Detroit or Cleveland in the first round. If they draw the Cavaliers, it would be an interesting series given the surprising fact that the Magic won two of the three games played between those teams this season. If they draw the Pistons, it would soon be a good time for the boys to work on their golf swings, because they have failed to beat the Pistons in three tries this season. They'll get another shot on April 11th.

Get Us Some Yellow Five: Magic 90, Nets 82

It's not in my nature to doubt myself -- yes, I am that cocky -- but after last night's game, in which the Orlando Magic pulled even in the third and pulled away in the fourth, I'm thinking I should change this blog's name to 'Fourth Quarter Surge'.
Okay, maybe I'm getting a little crazy; after all, the Magic are still under .500 and their victory came against the Nets, arguably the most disappointing team in the Association this year.

The game wasn't pretty by any measure. The Nets couldn't seem to hit any shot from anywhere on the court: 34.5% from the field, 34.8% from three-point range, and a Magic-like 64% from the free throw line. The Magic fared better shooting the ball, but nearly negated any good that did them by committing 17 turnovers. In short, this game was emblematic of the Magic's entire season: solid defense making up for a sloppy offensive effort.

Speaking of offensive stagnation, I think Brian Hill still has a few kinks to work out. The Magic shot a mediocre 42.3% from the field, but that I can live with. What's troubling to me is Dwight Howard's complete lack of offensive involvement. He took just six shots on the night. He was clearly frustrated by the Nets' constant double-teams, but there's going to come a point when the Magic will need to feed him the ball to create offense. Jameer Nelson came up for the team when it counted, scoring 12 of his 22 points in the final period, but he played his typical inefficient game, shooting just 8-for-19 from the field. Further, no one else scored more than 12 for the Magic. Scoring 90 and beating the Nets is one thing; scoring 90 and beating Detroit or Cleveland, the likely top two seeded playoff teams in the East, is quite another.

After the game, Nets guard and potential free-agent signee Vince Carter said "It's all the same. A loss is a loss right now." That attitude, which lacks the necessary sense of urgency needed to make a playoff run, is one that the Magic desperately need to avoid if they want to reach the postseason for the first time since 2003.

This win would ideally light a fire under the Magic, which has failed to win consecutive games since the end of January. However, last week's convincing victories over contenders Utah and Miami should have done the same thing, but didn't. Putting together a winning streak would certainly toughen up this young team that so far has not displayed much hunger. With Indiana floundering, New York nursing injuries to key players and New Jersey underachieving, it's time for the Magic to make a move.

The Magic have had their third quarter collapse. It's time now for a fourth quarter surge.

ET CETERA:

• The Magic wore their black throwback uniforms at home, a practice of which I do not approve. Wearing throwbacks at home is fine, but they should be the home colors
• Carlos Arroyo got meaningful burn for the first time in over a week and scored 9 points in 8 minutes. Think he wants his backup point guard job back?
• Bo Outlaw, not Pat Garrity, was the past-his-prime power forward on the inactive list for the Magic
• It's hard for me to dislike Vince Carter, given his affinity for headbands and high socks.