Rival Heat Make Offer to Charlie Bell

J.J. Redick has a broken hand.

That's the only Magic news that's come out since the death of Jameer Nelson's father two weeks ago. Given the dearth of Magic news, I'm forced to scan the internet for rumblings from the camps of our division rivals: the Hawks, Bobcats, Heat, and Wizards. Today, as Ira Winderman reports (thanks, TrueHoop), the Heat signed 28-year-old swingman Charlie Bell to a five-year, $18.5 million offer sheet. Because he is a restricted free-agent, the Milwaukee Bucks, the team for which he's played the last two seasons, have the right to match the Heat's offer and retain Bell.

The Bucks' Charlie Bell and the Magic's Hedo Turkoglu battle for a loose ball in a game from last season. Bell and Turkoglu will be seeing a lot of each other this season, as Bell will likely leave the Bucks to join Orlando's rival, the Miami Heat.
Photo by Darren Hauck, the Associated Press

It's hard to see why the Bucks would want to match the Heat's offer, given the contract's length Bell's explicit statement that he doesn't want to play in Milwaukee. So what does the Heat's acquisition of Bell mean for us? Charlie Bell is not a great player, but he's not a bad one, either. He'll exceed the departed Eddie Jones' scoring (9.5 points per game last season) and will probably soak up plenty of minutes at shooting guard. That means less playing time for Daequan Cook, the Heat's first-round draft choice this year; and for Penny Hardaway, whom we know well, the aging veteran with shaky knees attempting to make a comeback. I think it's safe to say that the Heat are better off when those two players aren't on the floor.

Will this move vault the Heat back into true title contention? Probably not, but it does bring them that much closer to catching Washington and -- ahem -- Orlando in the wide-open Southeast Division.

Fun With Rotations: 2007/2008 Starting Lineup Possibilities, Part One

There are only three givens for this year's Magic starting lineup: Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard will be there. After that, it's anyone's guess as to who else will be there, and which position they'll play. 3QC breaks down the possibilities.

The All-Firepower Lineup

1. Jameer Nelson
2. J.J. Redick
3. Hedo Turkoglu
   
4. Rashard Lewis
5. Dwight Howard

As evidenced by the title, this lineup puts the Magic's most prolific scorers at each position on the floor to start the game. Nelson sets up the offense; Redick, Turkoglu, and Lewis spread the defense with their long-range shooting skills; and Howard clogs the lane on defense and posts-up on offense. Sounds great... at first.

There's a real drawback to putting this lineup on the floor to start the game: depth. Just ask four-time NBA champion coach Gregg Popovich why he keeps Manu Ginobili on his bench while he starts veteran Michael Finley. It's not a great idea to have your second-unit be comprised of -- and perhaps this term is too harsh -- scrubs. Where would the offense come from once the first-unit is off the floor? Carlos Arroyo? Keyon Dooling? Tony Battie? Yuck.

There's also a problem on the defensive end; Nelson, Redick, Turkoglu, and Lewis are regarded as below-average in that facet of the game. Further, Lewis is naturally a small forward, so he is unaccustomed to guarding power forwards. While he could certainly handle the more modern perimeter-oriented fours, the traditional, back-to-the-basket ones would give him fits. Rashard is needed for his offense, and he needs to keep his legs fresh. We can't have him spending all his energy on defense.

So although this starting lineup certainly would pack a punch, some games are won and lost based on reserve play, which eliminates this lineup from serious consideration.

Look for more lineup entries later in the week. Until then, discuss this one's viability in the comments section. Hope you enjoyed your Labor Day, everyone.

UPDATED - Who's Under Contract: A Tentative 2007/2008 Orlando Magic Roster

The following is a list of players the Magic have under contract for at least the 2007/2008 season. It will be updated as the summer progresses. The timestamp will be changed with each update, which will move the post back to the top of the page.

	No.	Player	Pos.	Contract Expires
	1	Trevor Ariza	SF	2008/2009 1
	30	Carlos Arroyo	PG	2007/2008
	40	James Augustine	PF	2007/2008
	4	Tony Battie	PF	2009/2010
	10	Keith Bogans	SG	2008/2009
	5	Keyon Dooling	PG	2007/2008
	31	Adonal Foyle	PF	2008/2009
	8	Pat Garrity	PF	2007/2008
	13	Marcin Gortat	C	2008/2009
	12	Dwight Howard	C	2013/20142
	9	Rashard Lewis	SF	2012/20133
	14	Jameer Nelson	PG	2007/20084
	7	J.J. Redick	SG	2009/20105
	15	Hedo Turkoglu	SF	2009/20106
--	--	Empty roster spot 1	--	--

Notes:
¹: Can opt-out at the end of the 2007/2008 season.
²: Signed five-year, $85.9 million contract extension, which will come into effect following the 2007/2008 season.
³: Signed six-year, $127.2 million contract with Seattle, then was traded to Magic.
⁴: Agent and team in negotiations for contract extension.
⁵: 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons are team options.
⁶: Can opt-out at the end of the 2008/2009 season.

Are the Magic a Playoff Team? Discussion From Around the Web

• Unsilent Majority: "Tough break [sic] Orlando"
  
• Ballhype: The Magic are a team "Expecting to make playoffs but probably won't"
• Basketbawful: The Bucks and Magic will fight a losing battle for the final playoff spot.

(Kudos to Henry Abbott of TrueHoop for publishing this wrapup, from which the above quotes came)

Yes, the Trade To End All Trades has occurred, prompting every NBA fan with a pulse and a keyboard to make their playoff picks for next season. Nevermind the fact that the playoffs are eight-and-a-half months away.

Kevin Garnett's arrival in Boston may have knocked the Magic out of playoff contention.
Photo by Charles Krupa, the Associated Press

I should note that not all bloggers are taking a negative view of us. J.E. Skeets writes:

Who makes the playoffs? Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto, and Boston are locks. Miami, though they'll still sneak into the playoffs, won't even be the best team in Florida. Simply put: '06-07 Magic + Rashard Lewis - Brian Hill (!) = approximately 10 more wins. Yes, I think Orlando will win 50 games this year. Book it.

Brendan Sonnone of Believing in Magic also, uh, believes in us. Homerism? Perhaps. Worth reading? Yes.

So, with rare exception, most bloggers aren't giving us a chance. But ESPN's experts are a little kinder:

Does the addition of Rashard Lewis make the Magic a postseason lock?

Abbott: Like Boston, I feel the Magic need a top-flight point guard before they can be considered a reliable top Eastern team. And again, I'm feeling that barring a surprise there aren't a lot of Eastern spots up for grabs.

Hollinger: Again, not so fast. The Magic lost nearly as much as they gained between Hill, Darko and Diener, and their neighborhood just got tougher.

Stein: A lock, yes. Just because Lewis is way -- W-A-Y -- overpaid doesn't mean I don't like the idea of pairing Rashard with Dwight Howard. As long as we're only talking about finishing in the top eight, sure. Howard and Lewis aren't enough to lift Orlando to contender status, but those two get you in the playoffs in spite of some obvious holes around them.

Thorpe: Barring injury, probably yes. Especially with the new coach. They can play big or small effectively, and Dwight Howard should only keep growing as a player. Jameer Nelson is obviously a key, as is getting production from J.J. Redick. I like both to have better seasons this year.

Bucher: No lock, but I like their chances, as much because they hired Stan Van Gundy as having added Lewis to a team that squeaked into the playoffs last year. Boston is the only certifiable lottery team from last year joining the playoff mix and with the Wizards still a mixed bag and huge question marks about Miami, the Magic have as good a shot as they did last year. Which was good enough.

So they aren't singing our praises, but they aren't hanging us out to dry, either. But I get the feeling that it won't matter what we do when the season starts; we'll be disrespected no matter what. Let me explain: last year, we got off to a scorching 13-4 start, beating the Western-leading Jazz in Utah along the way. We were the toast of the league. Seriously.

Our season unraveled soon thereafter and we just squeaked into the playoffs, where we were summarily pounded by Detroit. We won a combined 10 games in December and January; to put that misery into perspective, we got our 10th overall victory three-and-a-half weeks into the season. The bottom dropped out. We were laughingstocks.

Dwight Howard couldn't have been satisfied with the way last season played out.
Photo by Gary W. Green, the Orlando Sentinel

So, even if we get off to a hot start this season, everyone will say we won't keep it up, pointing to last season as evidence. If we get off to a cold start, everyone will say we're paying the price for overpaying Rashard Lewis. And if we get off to a lukewarm start... it's still lukewarm. We won't get any respect.

All that lead me to write this entry. I'm playing the disrespect card and I'm not afraid to do so. The stuff the bloggers at the top wrote? That's bulletin-board material. We know that all too well. Remember when T-Mac said "now that we're in the second round" after going up 3-1 on the Pistons, only to lose out the rest of the way? You think that quote wasn't plastered all over the Pistons' locker room?

I don't claim to be read by anyone remotely connected with the Magic, so this entry won't motivate the team. What it should do is motivate its fans to stand and cheer, loudly and proudly, for their team. Let them talk smack about us. Let them write us off. We'll show 'em.

It worked for Golden State.

Photo by Ben Margot, the Associated Press

It can work for us.

So, what do you think? Are we a playoff team next year? I posed this question in a poll, but Blogger is goofing-up on me and it won't work, so it's stuck at the bottom of the page below my picture until further notice.

Pepsi Pro Summer League Wrapup -- Free Marcin!

This year's Pepsi Pro Summer League has drawn to a close and awards have been passed out. Our very own Marcin Gortat, who finished third in blocked shots per game, and J.J. Redick, who lead the league in scoring, each received First Team All-Summer League honors. James Augustine made the Second Team, and Kevin Kruger was an honorable mention. Nice job to all involved. The league ended on a sour note, though, as the Magic were handed a 63-57 loss by the Miami Heat earlier today.

J.J. Redick fires a pass around the tough defense of the Miami Heat, who finished today's contest on a 12-0 run to win the game.
Photo by Fernando Medina, Getty Images

I apologize for not covering the league more in-depth. I was able to catch Monday's game because I had the day off, but my work schedule prevented me from taking in any other games. If you're interested, you can check out game recaps and box scores from this page on the Magic's website. A warning on the box scores - they are downloadable PDF files; that is, you can't just click on a page and see the box score. Unfortunate.

My summer-league game-ball goes to Marcin Gortat, whose performance this week has all but assured him a spot on the team's roster. The seven-footer posted per-game averages of 10 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 3.2 blocked shots. The loss of Darko left us with only one shot-blocker, Dwight Howard, and he can't play the whole game. If Gortat can play 10-15 minutes a night and protect the rim, I'll be happy.

Marcin Gortat attempts a layup against the Chicago Bulls during a summer-league game. Gortat's strong showing throughout the league has strengthened his case for inclusion on the Magic's roster.

Photo by Fernando Medina, Getty Images

Another player who turned heads was Kevin Kruger of UNLV. The departure of Travis Diener leaves the Magic in need of a third point guard. Kruger played competently and unselfishly, although his 2.6 assists per-game average doesn't show it. Like Diener, he's deadly from three-point territory, as he shot 10-of-22, or 46%, from that distance. Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo would absolutely get the nod over him, and Keyon Dooling figures to see time running the point as well, but the Magic could do worse than have Kevin Kruger as their last option at the point.

With whose summer-league performance are you most impressed? Vote in the sidebar on the right-hand side. If anything big happens this weekend, I'll chime in. If not, I'll enjoy a respite from the internet... by working at my "actual job" for 12 hours this weekend.

Redick Scores 30 in Summer-League Debut; Magic Beat Nets 85-74

NEWSFLASH: J.J. Redick can score.

Unable to compete in last year's Pepsi Pro Summer League due to injury, the Magic's second-year guard made up for lost time by scoring 30 points on 7-of-18 shooting from the field, including 4-of-6 from three-point range. His team came away with the victory, as the Orlando Magic held off the New Jersey Nets by a final margin of 85-74.

I'll say this about J.J.: I had him all wrong. I figured him to be fairly one-dimensional on offense. It's true that he relies upon the three-point shot, but he also drives to the basket quicker and harder than one might think. Most of his three-pointers tonight were set up by screens on the low-block, which J.J. would curl around before catching the pass and shooting. The skeptic in me points out that those shots are easier to make in summer-league play because they are not defended as well, but the realist in me counters that the basket is the same height in the regular-season and that the screens will be coming from Dwight Howard and Tony Battie rather than non-roster invitees. A promising offensive display from the Magic's two-guard of the future, to be sure.

But Redick was not the only Magic player who impressed: Marcin Gortat, a second-round draft choice in 2005 who has spent the past few seasons in Poland, posted 10 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists; James Augustine, the Magic's second-round draft choice in 2006, added 11 points and 5 rebounds; Kevin Kruger, an undrafted point guard out of UNLV, filled up the stat line with 11 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal; and Steven Smith made a strong case for his inclusion on the Magic's 15-man roster with 13 points on 6-of-11 shooting.

Marcin Gortat played well for the Magic in the first of five summer-league games. The seven-foot center lead all players with 6 assists to go along with 10 points and 12 rebounds.
Photo by John Raoux, the Associated Press

There were some rough patches, however. The Magic's defense, and Marcin Gortat in particular, was sometimes late in rotating, leading to open Nets shots. The Magic also turned the ball over 22 times, which can be expected of a team composed of mostly strangers. The team should be worried, though, if its players are still committing turnovers at that rate as this week's games progress.

Of the non-roster players who made an impact tonight, I'd say Kevin Kruger was the strongest. We already have three point guards -- Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling, and Jameer Nelson -- under contract for next year, and that doesn't even include free-agent Travis Diener. However, Arroyo and Dooling are mentioned as pieces of a sign-and-trade deal that would send them and Pat Garrity to Seattle for Rashard Lewis and Earl Watson. Diener's potential departure would leave the Magic with only Nelson and Watson to bring the ball up. Kruger would fit in nicely as the third point guard. He had three assists tonight, and made plenty more great passes that didn't lead to buckets. He also has three-point range. The Magic should keep their eye on him, especially if they are still in discussions to make that trade with Seattle.

The Magic take the floor again tomorrow to face the Indiana Pacers. The game will start approximately 20 minutes after the completion of the Heat/Nets contest, which starts at 3:00 PM. Each game in this week's League is streamed live and free of charge on this page of the Magic's website.

ESPN: Grant Hill to Sign with Phoenix Suns

Just a day after withdrawing their offer to Darko Milicic, the Orlando Magic lost another free-agent on Thursday when Grant Hill agreed to a two-year deal with the Phoenix Suns. ESPN.com has the story, as does the Orlando Sentinel.

Grant Hill is leaving the Magic for Phoenix Suns, with whom he will attempt to rock 'n' sock the West's best teams next season.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

I made the case for keeping Grant Hill a month ago, and I stand by all my statements. I would have loved to see Grant in a Magic uniform for another season, at least long enough to let J.J. Redick prove himself as a starter. Alas, that won't happen, and Grant's departure leaves a huge void at the two-guard.

With Grant Hill's departure, Keith Bogans, Keyon Dooling, and J.J. Redick all figure to play more minutes at shooting guard next season.
Bogans photo by Bill Koshroun, the Associated Press; Dooling photo by Jacob Langston, the Orlando Sentinel; Redick photo by Phelan M. Ebanhack, the Associated Press

That said, I'm happy for Grant. He made the decision that was best for him, and I can't fault him for it. Not only will he play for a title contender, but he may even get the chance to start for one; the ESPN article to which I linked mentions that either Hill or Boris Diaw will get the starting nod for Mike D'Antoni's team next season. Grant's choice speaks volumes about his character. He's not content with riding someone else's coattails on the way to a title, as Mitch Richmond did with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2002; he wants to contribute and to earn his money, which will be $3 million over two seasons.

I'll close with some ammunition for those of you who do not share my admiration for Grant Hill. We paid Grant $93 M over the course of his contract, which translates into approximately:

• $455,882.35 per game, or
• $27,844.31 per point, or
• $14110.15 per minute.

Grant Hill may be a great basketball player, but if NBA-ers were rated in Consumer Reports, Hill would certainly not be a 'Best Buy'.

Magic Release Summer Roster, Hope to Address Frontcourt Needs

It's been a slow news day, at least as far as free agency is concerned, but the Magic did make some news by releasing their roster for the Pepsi Pro Summer League, which runs at the RDV Sportsplex from July 9th to July 13th.

Headlining the Magic's roster is J.J. Redick, who was unable to compete in last summer's league due to injury. Redick will likely be the Magic's starting two-guard if Grant Hill does not re-sign with the team. More noteworthy, at least to me, is the presence of 6'10" power forward Milovan Rakovic on the roster. Rakovic was the last overall selection in last Thursday's draft, acquired from Dallas in exchange for the rights for Reyshawn Terry.

Like many, I certainly don't expect Rakovic to make the Magic's 15-man roster for the 2007/2008 season, but I also didn't expect that he'd even be in the United States at this point. It'll be nice to get a look at what he can do, but in all likelihood he won't play in the NBA for several seasons.

Rakovic won't be the only big-man battling for his NBA life for the Magic this summer. In fact, the Magic's summer roster is loaded with players who could see significant backup minutes at the power-forward and center positions during the regular season. Apart from Dwight Howard, Tony Battie, and Darko Milicic, the Magic have no NBA-caliber talent at power forward and center. The need for a backup is particularly apparent now, as Milicic might leave via free-agency. Former Magic second-round picks Marcin Gortat (7'0", 240 lbs) and James Augustine (6'10", 235 lbs) are on this summer's team, as is former D-League standout Anthony Fuqua (6'11", 225 lbs). And although he isn't on the summer team and hasn't played in the NBA since the 2005/2006 season, former Magic forward Mario Kasun received a qualifying offer from the team last Friday, making him a restricted free agent.

Marcin Gortat, whose favorite actor is Will Smith, may finally get the chance to prove that he belongs in the NBA.

If it seems like the Magic are scraping the bottom of the barrel for big-men, it's because they are. However, the Magic have to be happier with whichever stiff they sign from the summer team than they are with current backup power forward Pat Garrity, a veteran who saw limited minutes last season. Bo Outlaw also plays the position, but he is an unrestricted free-agent and his status with the Magic for next season is uncertain. The next-best option is Hedo Turkoglu, who is a natural small-forward and a sub-par rebounder, especially given his height of 6'10".

Hedo Turkoglu will have to improve his rebounding if he is to start at power forward, which he might be forced to do if Darko Milicic leaves via free agency.
Photo by Max Whittaker, the Associated Press

Rounding out next season's frontcourt would have been the Magic's highest priority this summer, but their dreadful offense last season made the need for perimeter scoring more pressing. Remember how freaked-out I was when Darko sprained his ankle at the end of last season and it looked like he might miss the start of the playoffs? Well, I'm well beyond that level now. Last season, the most Darko would have missed was two games. Given the way free agency is playing out, Darko might miss 82 games in 2007/2008.

The prospect of signing Rashard Lewis this summer is exciting; the prospect of watching Hedo Turkoglu trying to box out Emeka Okafor is not.

Tim Povtak: Magic Should Wait for Arenas in 2008

Gilbert Arenas takes a bow at center court after scoring 60 points in a win against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Photo by the Associated Press

Tim Povtak, the Orlando Sentinel's NBA reporter, wrote in yesterday's paper that the Magic should not spend any of their salary-cap this summer so they will have enough room to attract All-Star point guard Gilbert Arenas when he becomes a free agent in 2008:

The Magic plan to pursue 27-year-old forward Rashard Lewis of Seattle, but so will 20 other teams looking to improve in a very shallow free-agent class, all willing to take drastic steps to make it happen. Lewis would help the Magic significantly next season.

Yet Gilbert Arenas could help them even more -- if they can be patient.

Arenas, 25, is the do-everything guard from Washington who will be a free agent in 2008, an all-star the past three seasons and already one of the game's finest players.

Lewis is good, but he is not close to Arenas-good.

[....]

By the summer of 2008, Arenas will be tired of playing on a team without a decent center, and beating his head against the wall with little hope of going deep in the playoffs with the Wizards.

It seems like a crazy idea; why pass on a sure shot at signing Lewis, Gerald Wallace, or Vince Carter and take a chance that we can outbid Arenas' other suitors next summer?

It gets even tricker: Arenas wrote on his NBA.com blog that he's sure he's staying in Washington; his opting out has everything to do with money and nothing to do with wanting to leave the team:

When I signed my original deal, I believed that I would become a max player so I had a player’s option. So, I make 11 and 12 million the next two years and then the extension would put me at 12.5, 13, 14 in the three years of the extension. The part that I got frustrated about the extension was that I have to play next year at that figure no matter what and then if I extend, all I’m getting is four years guaranteed. But, if I opt out after next year, I’ll have six years guaranteed because I’ll sign a whole new six year contract.

So at the end of the day, it will be a six-year deal instead of a four-year deal and instead of starting at 12.5 or 13 million, I’ll be starting at 14 or 15 million and I’ll be a max player.

This has nothing to do with me leaving or trying to look for other teams. I have to do it:

1. To get more years and
2. To increase my pay.

The risk doesn't end there. Arenas is notoriously eccentric, as documented here in a New York Times article by Chuck Klosterman. One of his quirks in particular stands out as relevant to this situation. From Gilbertology.net:

Fans began noticing his quirky antics when Gilbert said he decided between the Wizards and Clippers by flipping a coin 10 times. When the Clippers’ side came up eight times, Arenas says he knew what he had to do: go “against the odds”, although he later said he made up the story for “fun and entertainment.”

Assume that Povtak's right and Arenas indeed gets sick of not having any help down low. Would Arenas go "against the odds" -- turning down the chance of playing alongside two dominant big men and making Orlando a contender -- and stick with the Wizards? Would he throw logic out the window again and base his decision on another coin flip? There's no way to tell at this point, and that's worrisome.

Illustration by Lee Bermejo for Batman-On-Film

We Magic fans know what it's like to gamble in free-agency. We watched as the Magic signed an injured Grant Hill to a max deal seven years ago, and he's played in only 40% of the Magic's games over that span. Perhaps more infamously, we watched as the Magic lowballed Shaquille O'Neal in their bid to re-sign him eleven years ago, and he decided to bolt for the L.A. Lakers.

I've weighed the pros and cons of waiting to sign Arenas several times and I still can't come up with a conclusive answer. If we don't wait, we'll almost certainly have Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, or Gerald Wallace in a Magic uniform next season, which will give us some much-needed perimeter scoring and firepower. If we wait, we'll trot out the same team we had last season, which went 40-42 and finished 8th in a mediocre conference, and likely won't improve that standing unless Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick have breakout seasons. Can we take another year of mediocrity in hopes of landing one of the NBA's premier scorers?

I don't claim to speak for all Magic fans, which is why I'm leaving this question up to the 3QC readership.

Should the Magic save their free-agency money this summer so they can sign Gilbert Arenas next summer?
	Yes
	No
pollcode.com free polls

The future is in your hands.

The Case For Keeping Grant Hill

With apologies to Shawn Kemp, no superstar of the early 1990s has seen his career tail off as quickly as Grant Hill did. Whereas Kemp was done in by his hedonism, Hill was done in by his passion for basketball. He played through excruciating pain in his last season in Detroit, limping around the court in the playoffs as a mere shadow of himself. He didn't know his ankle was broken, and consequently he didn't know that he'd never again dominate a game with Oscar Robertson-like averages of 21 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists as he did in the 1996/1997 season. It's easy to forget how great Hill was, and it's even easier to dismiss him as a has-been. The Magic have played 511 combined regular-season and postseason games since Hill signed with the team. Of those, he has played in 204, or a mere 39.9%.

Grant Hill, in obvious pain, leaves the second game of the Detroit Pistons' first-round playoff series with the Miami Heat in 2000. His career would never be the same.
Photo by Angela Peterson, Orlando Sentinel

In spite of all that, I'm here today to campaign openly for the Magic to re-sign Grant Hill. It won't be an easy task: unless Hill is willing to sign for the veteran's minimum of $1.5 M, the Magic would likely have to trade someone like Keith Bogans or Carlos Arroyo to free up cap room because most -- if not all -- of it will go toward re-signing Darko Milicic and signing a perimeter scorer. The fact that other teams are interested in Hill further complicates the matter. And last Thursday, USA Today reported that Grant Hill will listen to what those other suitors will say:

With his ankle now stabilized, the 12-year veteran says he hasn't closed the door on a return to the Magic but is listening to all offers. Could a return to Detroit be in his future? "I'm keeping myself open," Hill says.

"I'm going to see what Orlando's doing but if people come knocking, I'm going to listen. I'm still trying to figure it all out."

Contrary to what detractors would have you believe, Grant Hill is still talented and well worth a roster spot. I don't buy the argument that Hill is a cancer to this team, or that he swindled us out of $93 M and set us back seven years. It is not as though Grant sat on his duff, content to receive his paycheck every two weeks. He worked hard to rehabilitate his oft-maligned left ankle, even after six surgeries. He showed a commitment to this team by not quitting when it would have been easy for him to do so.

Showing incredible dedication, Grant Hill went through the difficult process of getting himself ready to play after suffering numerous ankle injuries.

Photo by Gary Bogdon, Orlando Sentinel

No, he won't ever again post the Robertson-like averages to which I alluded earlier, but he doesn't have to do that to be effective. Last season, he was second on the team in scoring, averaging 14.4 points per game. On top of that, he shot an efficient 52.8%, good for 20th-best in the entire league. That's a remarkable percentage, especially considering that only two other guards shot better than that last season: two-time MVP Steve Nash and two-time NBA championship winner Tony Parker, both of whom are All-Stars.

Even at 34, Grant Hill can still get to the rim.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

His defense hasn't fallen off, either. He held opposing shooting guards to a Player Efficiency Rating of 14.5, which is below the league average of 15. No, he isn't a world-class defender like Shawn Marion, but he's not a sieve like Gilbert Arenas either.

But Grant's value to this team can't be measured in numbers alone. He's a leader, both in the locker room and in the community. On a team loaded with young players -- Trevor Ariza, Dwight Howard, Darko Milicic, and J.J. Redick are all under 25 years old -- the importance of a guiding presence in the locker room cannot be overstated. Tony Battie, Pat Garrity, and Bo Outlaw are all veterans, but none of them are veteran All-Stars; they don't command as much respect as Grant does.

Grant Hill doesn't have to be on the court to be an asset to his team.

Photo by Rusty Kennedy, Associated Press

Imagine this scenario: The Magic start Jameer, JJ, a free-agent small forward, Darko, and Dwight. Grant Hill comes off the bench and averages 12 points on 55% shooting in 20 minutes a game. He'd share sixth-man duties with Trevor Ariza and the Magic would at least get into the second round of the playoffs. It's not that hard to fathom; Stan Van Gundy took the Heat, who won only 42 games in the regular season, into the second round in 2003/2004.

The Magic should bring Hill back for his intangibles alone. The fact that he's still a top-100 talent in this league only makes the decision that much easier. Would I call it a slam dunk?

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

Yes, I would.

Grading the Magic, Part Two - Middle of the Road

We Magic fans are in a period of limbo: the Magic have been eliminated from the playoffs, yet the draft and free agency are still a month away. As such, I thought I'd now would be as good a time as ever to submit individual grades for each Magic player. I've decided to split the players into three different groups: Top of the Class, or the players who had above-average seasons; Middle of the Road, or the players who did about as well as expected; and Better Luck Next Year, or players who either underperformed or did not play frequently enough to be evaluated fairly .

Today's post concerns the Middle of the Road. I welcome your comments and criticisms.

Tony Battie, Forward				#4
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	6.1	5.2	.489	C
	I like Tony a lot, but has more to do with his steadiness than anything else. He's what some people might refer to as a "lunchpail guy" because he's always in the game, playing hard, and doing the dirty work. I can't count the number of times various broadcasters have said something like, "Tony's a guy who you does things that won't show up in the box score," which is a polite way of saying, "he isn't that good." And as great as consistency is, I'd like to see more than a steady 6 points and 5 boards a night from a veteran player making $22 M over the next four years. Talk about out-of-control spending.

Bo Outlaw, Forward				#45
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	2.0	2.6	.667	C
	Like Tony Battie, Bo Outlaw provide veteran leadership on a young team. He's rarely used, and with good reason; his skills have eroded to the point at which it becomes apparent that he is no longer an NBA-level talent. Why does he get a C from me, as opposed to a lower grade? Well, no one expected much of him anyway. And say what you will about his skills, but his preparation is impeccable; he comes into games ready to play and with tremendous energy. He's also a big hit with the community. If only he weren't relegated to waving towels and pumping fists from the bench each night.

J.J. Redick, Guard				#7
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	3-pt Field Goal %	GRADE
	6.0	1.2	.388	C+
	I didn't really expect J.J. to make a big splash in his rookie season. Brian Hill is notorious for playing veterans over rookies, and it showed this season, as J.J. appeared in only 42 contests. He got off to a slow start because he missed training camp due to injury, yet he showed flashes of brilliance. In the miracle 106-104 win over San Antonio this season, the game won on Dwight Howard's alley-oop slam, J.J. posted 16 points on 6-of-11 from the field. I doubt he'll ever be an All-Star, but he should carve out a nice role as a 12-to-15 point scorer eventually. And his defense isn't as bad as advertised, as he allowed opposing shooting guards a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 16.2, just 1.2 points above the league average.

Next in the series: Better Luck Next Year.

Notes From Halftime of Game 4

Well, there goes the wind out of our sails. Again.

It's bad enough that we blew a 37-27 lead with 7:22 left in the half. But then we had to let Detroit make yet another buzzer-beating shot at the end of a quarter. They've done that countless times throughout this series, and they did it again here. Grant Hill made two free throws to put the Magic ahead by 46-45 with :03 remaining in the half. The Pistons were prepared, having called a 20-second timeout in between Hill's free throws to set up a play. Rasheed Wallace threw a long bomb to Rip Hamilton, who caught the ball at halfcourt, took a few steps toward the basket, and laid the ball in as the buzzer sounded.

If this were the first time the Pistons had made that sort of shot in this series, I'd say "Incredible. Unbelievable." But at this point, with this team, I've come to expect end-of-quarter meltdowns.

But the meltdown didn't start there. As I mentioned, we held a 10-point lead with 7:22 remaining. Here's how the rest of the quarter played out.

• ORL - Trevor Ariza misses jumper
• DET - Carlos Delfino makes jumper (29-37)
• ORL - Darko Milicic bad pass turnover
  
• DET - Carlos Delfino makes two free throws (31-37)
• ORL - J.J. Redick lost ball turnover
  
• DET - Chris Webber makes layup (33-37)
• ORL - Darko Milicic misses jumper
• ORL - Trevor Ariza misses layup
• DET - Carlos Delfino makes jumper (35-37)

At this point, Brian Hill called a timeout; I guess he was displeased with his team giving up 8 straight points, 6 of which were scored by a mediocre role player. The Magic didn't fare much better after the timeout, though.

• ORL - Hedo Turkoglu misses jumper
• DET - Flip Murray makes a free throw (36-37)
• ORL - Grant Hill bad pass turnover
• ORL - Hedo Turkoglu bad pass turnover
• DET - Carlos Delfino makes layup (38-37)
• ORL - Darko Milicic makes two free throws (38-39)
• ORL - Grant Hill lost ball turnover
• DET - Chris Webber makes dunk (40-39)
• ORL - Dwight Howard misses layup
• DET - Chauncey Billups makes three-point jumper (43-39)
• ORL - Hedo Turkoglu misses jumper
• ORL - Darko Milicic misses tip-in
• ORL - Dwight Howard makes layup (43-41)
• ORL - Grant Hill makes layup (43-43)
• DET - Rasheed Wallace makes dunk (45-43)
• ORL - Grant Hill makes a free throw (45-44)

At this point, Grant Hill made the two free throws to which I alluded earlier, then Hamilton countered with his backbreaking layup.

I'm encouraged because we were up so large on Detroit early, but I'm discouraged because the Pistons played terribly and still hold a one-point lead.

I hope those brooms are put away.

Brave New World

Don't look now, but the Magic closed out their season on a four-game winning streak to finish at 40-42 (.488). We played well down the stretch, which is encouraging, but this streak leaves me feeling like there's a cloud above our heads.

Why the feeling of impending doom?

The last time the Magic won five straight was from December 30th to January 12th. Not bad, right? Well, no, but what happened next was: they dropped their next six games and never really recovered. To be fair, that downward spiral began when Trevor Ariza injured his knee against Golden State, which was the last game in that winning streak. Well, not to put too fine a point on it, but Darko Milicic went down with a sprained foot against Washington two nights ago. Luckily, we managed to win both that game and last night's contest against Miami, which didn't play its stars at all. What I'm getting at is as follows: We've gone on streaks like this before, then lost a player due to injury, then spiraled out of control.


We really need Darko against Detroit. I don't know how else to say it. Power forward is a really weak spot on our team. As much as I bust on Jameer for being mediocre, at least he's young and has a capable veteran, Carlos Arroyo, backing him up. Milicic is our only true talent at power forward. Consider our other options:

• Tony Battie may start games, but he rarely finishes them. He has no offensive game and provides only marginal help on the glass.
  
• Bo Outlaw can't do anything like he used to because he's aged.
  
• Pat Garrity has lost his shooting touch and couldn't guard a chair if he had to. He also can't rebound.
  
• James Augustine is a rookie who has played in 7 minutes this entire season.

Darko's absence -- he won't be available until next week at the earliest -- is going to force Brian Hill to get creative in his rotation. He might have to play "small ball" and we saw some of it last night against Miami. At one point, Hill had both Battie and Hedo Turkoglu out of position, with Battie at center and Turkoglu at power forward. I'm all in favor of limiting Pat Garrity's minutes as much as possible. I love Pat, he's great for the community and everything, but he can't be expected to guard Rasheed Wallace or Chris Webber for any length of time. He's just too slow.

This series is really going to be a litmus test for our youngsters. Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and Trevor Ariza are all getting their first tastes of playoff action and it will be interesting to see how they react to the pressure. The core of this Detroit team has won two titles in the past five years, so they know exactly what to do. At this point, all I can ask for is that everyone plays hard and doesn't make any mistakes. If we get outplayed, fine; Detroit is a more talented team anyway. I just don't want to go down without a fight, and that means that everyone plays as hard as he can and as intelligently as he can for as long as he's in the game.

Come out swinging.

Postscript: Over/under on big shots in the series from J.J. Redick: three. Take the over. He looked very confident last night against Miami. He also knows all about playing under pressure; going to college at Duke will do that to you.

Shine On Me: Magic 104, 76ers 87

Grant Hill has plenty to clap about. Although he didn't have a great game, one of his teammates sure did, and it could not have come at a better time for the Magic.

I'll let Dwight Howard's linescore speak for itself:
35 points, 14-15 field goals, 7-10 free throws, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals in 43 minutes.

Shaq who?

The Magic went into Philadelphia today and made a huge statement by blowing out the 76ers and ending that team's remote playoff hopes. The Magic themselves increased their lead over Indiana for the 8th playoff spot in the East to two games.

It's one thing to pick up a win after a heartbreaking loss. It's quite another to go into another team's home floor and lead wire-to-wire in a double-digit victory. For me, the most pleasing numbers in this game's box score aren't those next to Dwight's name. In fact, the numbers to which I am alluding don't come next to any player's name. No, they're the quarter-by-quarter scores. We outscored Philly in each quarter, refusing to let up even when it became apparent that they didn't have a chance.


Really, it's hard to think of anything that went wrong for us today, except for Darko Milicic's embarrassing missed dunk.

On an individual level, there was Dwight's incredible performance, which included an improbable 13-foot bank shot from the left wing. Darko scored 14, including back-to-back 19-footers from the top of the key. Even Keith Bogans played well, scoring 5 points and grabbing 3 rebounds in only 8 minutes of action, which he probably would not have seen if J.J. Redick had not been deactivated due to a sore quad muscle.

The collective numbers are also good. We shot 53% while holding the 76ers to just 39%. We scored 104 points, the fifth time in this month's six games that we've exceeded 100 -- and the exception was against Detroit, against which we scored 99. Impressively, we had 25 assists on 43 field goals, and five players recorded at least three assists. In my recap for the Pistons game, I wrote that the Magic played as individuals rather than as a team, and that proved to be their undoing. Credit Brian Hill and the rest of the coaching staff for stressing ball movement and unselfish play in practice this week.

I can only hope that today's high level of play can carry over until tomorrow's game with Boston, which has shut down Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson, its two best players, for the rest of the season. The Celtics have guaranteed the league's second-worst record and, as such, their draft lottery position is assured. In other words, they're just playing out the season and waiting for the draft. If the Magic win -- and they should, barring a letdown of colossal proportions -- and the Pacers lose their game with the Nets, we'd clinch a playoff berth. So, as counterintuitive as it seems, we actually become Net fans tomorrow; after that, we can curse them all they want, as we want to steal the 7th playoff spot from them.

Summarily, we've played better in April than our 3-3 record indicates, even considering that our 3 wins came against some dreadful teams. If we keep playing this way for the rest of the season, we'll have a great deal of confidence heading into the playoffs. In an earlier entry, I wrote that the Magic needed to make a fourth quarter surge. Well, they've done that. Now all they have to do is keep it up.

The Face on the Milk Carton Series: Pat Garrity

It wasn't too long ago when Pat Garrity was important to the Orlando Magic. He'd come into the game, camp out on the right wing and wait for Tracy McGrady to kick it out to him for a three-point bomb. Garrity -- or, as my friend Jake called him then, "G-Pat" -- was a fan-favorite. You can't help but love unathletic white guys in the NBA who have only one skill, and if you don't believe me, ask Heat fans about Jason Kapono or Knicks fans about David Lee.

But now, just five seasons removed from his best, in which he averaged 11.1 points per game and shot .427 from beyond the three-point arc, Pat Garrity is arguably the least important player on the whole team. He's appeared in just 31 games this season, and in those he's only averaged 8.3 minutes. He has nearly as many field goal attempts (65) as he does points (67). He's hitting just 36.7% of this threes and only 32.3% of his shots overall. And although rookie James Augustine has appeared in just two games so far, Augustine is 7 years younger and appears to be able to rebound the basketball, something Garrity has struggled with throughout his career.

As I alluded to earlier, Pat Garrity made a living by camping out at the three-point line and waiting for the ball. But what happens when a three-point shooter stops making his threes? In most cases, it means getting cut in training camp or spending the season on the inactive list. In Garrity's case, it means sitting at the end of the bench each night, cursing the knee injury he suffered in 2003 that he never fully recovered from.

In Defense of Brian Hill

It's impossible to discuss the Magic's struggles this season without mentioning this man:


When the Magic began their downward spiral this season, fans were quick to call for the firing of head coach Brian Hill. FireBrianHill.Org was established earlier this season to unite fans against the Magic's head coach and to collect signatures for a petition calling for his removal from the organization. He was stubborn, stupid, not playing to his team's strengths, stunting the development of his younger players, etc. Even after the Magic's stunning victory against the Heat on Sunday, fans blasted Hill:

• Jameer, Howard, Turco, Ariza, and Hill are great players but the coach is not to their level. To be a leader you must have a plan and we have seen none, only wish to be lucky. I once heard that " Luck was when oportunity meets PREPAREDNESS" and the Orlando Magic have faced several oportunities, and they showed not being prepared for them. Sure, it is their coach's job, to have them ready. C'mon Brian it is about time. WE ARE FUMING...

• Half of the time Brian Hill looks lost as if he doesnt know what he's even doing. He was a good coach 12 years ago but now its time for him to move on...

I can't help but wonder why these fans are reacting to Hill in this manner. Perhaps he acted too late in the season when he changed the rotation, but I have news for unhappy Magic fans:

It's working.

Since benching Carlos Arroyo and Keith Bogans in favor of Keyon Dooling and J.J. Redick, the Magic have defeated powerhouses Utah and Miami. And although they've also lost to struggling Sacramento and injury-riddled Toronto in the same stretch, it was through no fault of Hill's.

As I documented in this blog's introductory post, the Magic lost to the Kings because they couldn't hit shots when it mattered, nor could they keep Sacramento off the foul line. Brian Hill is not out there hacking Kevin Martin on every play, ladies and gentlemen, nor is he taking the court in a Magic jersey and throwing up bricks like the rest of the team did in Toronto, where they shot just 37.3%. However, in that game, the Keyon Dooling-lead second unit keyed several runs to cut into double-digit leads. It was Orlando's starters in that contest who hurt the team the most. Hedo Turkoglu played his worst game of the season, shooting just 1-for-11 for 4 points. And although Jameer Nelson finished with a late flourish by draining two three-pointers and hitting three free throws after getting fouled on another attempt, he shot just 4-for-12 for the game for 15 points. Further, he struggled on defense, committing 5 fouls.
Although Dooling had a poor shooting game -- he was just 3-of-12 -- he was much more effective at the point than Jameer was. Dooling finished with 6 assists to just 1 turnover in 25 minutes. I have a hard time believing that Arroyo would have been able to post similar numbers.

But that's just taking a micro perspective. When examining the whole season, there isn't a whole lot that's gone wrong that can be directly attributed to Brian Hill. The Magic have suffered through injuries to Grant Hill, Tony Battie, and Trevor Ariza. Hedo Turkoglu has battled a mysterious illness all year. And at the trade deadline, with the Magic in the tailspin, it was GM Otis Smith, not Brian Hill, who decided not to make a move, content with mediocrity.

What I'm asking of Magic fans here -- and maybe it's too much, that's the problem -- is for a bit of patience. I know it's hard, especially this late in the season, especially after so many losses, and especially after the promising 13-4 start devolved, but Brian Hill's lineup adjustments are for the best and the next 13 games will show it.

Introduction

The purpose of this blog is simple: to comment on the past, present, and future of the Orlando Magic. I feel as though I am qualified to comment for the following reasons:

• I have lived in Orlando my entire life.
• I have previously been a Magic season ticketholder.
• I remember Danny Schayes.

Those reasons, more or less, make me just as reputable as, say... Brian Schmitz. But qualifications aren't really necessary; this is, after all, the internet.

The name of this blog should resonate with Magic fans. Although there's no official statistic -- yet -- I'm certain that the Magic have the highest rate of blown third-quarter leagues in the league. If you don't believe me, check the recap of the Magic's loss to the Sacramento Kings on Saturday night. Actually, let me just go through the play-by-play.

The Situation:
The Magic entered the 3rd quarter with a 52-42 advantage on the Kings, who had lost 5 straight games heading into that night's action.

The 3rd quarter:
The Magic and Kings traded baskets for the first 7:10 of the period:

• SAC - Kevin Martin makes two free throws (44-52)
  
• ORL - Grant Hill makes a jumper (44-54)
  
• SAC - Mike Bibby makes a three-pointer (47-54)
  
• ORL - Jameer Nelson makes two free throws (47-56)
  
• SAC - Kevin Martin makes a free throw (48-56)
  
• ORL - Dwight Howard makes a dunk (48-58) -- One of Howard's two field goals on the night!
  
• SAC - Mike Bibby makes a jumper (50-58)
  
• ORL - Darko Milicic makes a dunk (50-60)

Then, finally, one team made a stop and converted on their next possession.

• ORL - Grant Hill makes a jumper (50-62)

Hey, we're up 12! We're really cookin'! Right?
Wrong. I've decided to include the Magic's non-scoring possessions in between the Kings' made baskets in the following sequence:

• SAC - Ron Artest makes a two-pointer (52-62)
• ORL - Jameer Nelson bad pass turnover
• ORL - Jameer Nelson misses a shot
  
• SAC - Mike Bibby makes a three-pointer (55-62)
• ORL - Dwight Howard misses a layup
• ORL - Darko Milicic commits a loose-ball foul
  
• SAC - Corliss Williamson makes two free throws (57-62)
• ORL - Darko Milicic 3-second violation turnover
• SAC - Mike Bibby makes a three-pointer (60-62)

Four possessions turned into two missed shots and two turnovers, and the Kings were able to convert. The Magic's scoring drought finally ended when J.J. Redick hit a two-point basket to bump the Magic lead back up to 4 points. Unfortunately, the scoring drought wasn't all that J.J.'s basket ended; the Magic were finished scoring for the Period. 3:11 had elapsed between baskets and another 1:39 would elapse to finish the quarter with the score of Sacramento 67, Orlando 64. This season, the Magic have a record of 3-30 -- .090 -- when trailing after the third quarter. Magic fans knew that the remaining 12 minutes would be a formality.
The final score was 95-83.
How ugly was this loss? Apart from the fact that it came against a sub-.500 opponent on a losing streak? Here are some fun facts:

• The Kings' Kevin Martin, a candidate for Most Improved Player of the Year, made just one of his eight field goal attempts and still managed to score 20 points. How? The Magic couldn't stop fouling him and he ended up shooting 20 free throws, making 17 of them. To put that number in perspective, the Magic as a team shot only 25 free throws.
• The Magic outshot the Kings 41.9% to 33.8%.
  
• The Magic outrebounded the Kings 41-36.
• Magic All-Star Dwight Howard finished with six points. Six. This from a guy who leads the league in dunking.
• The Kings wore their hideous gold alternate uniforms. Beyoncé called and she wants her Dreamgirls wardrobe back.
  

In a sick way, that loss is what forced me to start this blog. I'm sure that another blown lead down the road would have influenced me as well, but there's no time like the present.
Right?
Right.