Friday afternoon, John Denton of Florida Today reported on the newspaper's forum that the Magic have contacted the agents of P.J. Brown and Chris Webber to gauge their interest in joining the team for the veteran's minimum salary of $1.2 million. Tim Povtak of the Orlando Sentinel later reported the same story in Saturday's edition.
I covered both of these players in my big-men free-agent post a few weeks ago, and my opinions of them haven't changed: that is, Brown would be a decent addition if he could play for two seasons and Webber should be avoided because of his attitude. GM Otis Smith told Povtak that he was only looking for a guy who could play for 12-15 minutes a night, and both those players seem to fit the bill. It's hard to muster enthusiasm for spending $1.2 million on an over-the-hill role player, but it was good enough for Phoenix.
Photo by Leigh Shelle Robertus, the East Valley Tribune
Was that too harsh?
I see nothing to get excited about regarding P.J. Brown. In his prime, he could be relied upon for a double-double each night. Now? He's another Tony Battie. We already have two Hedo Turkoglus; we don't need two Tony Batties. What, are we building a team of duplicates here? Jeez.
It gets more interesting with Webber, and that's only because I'm a uniform freak. The Magic have never had a player who wore a uniform number higher than 55. Chris Webber wore no. 84 last year with Detroit; his customary no. 4 is retired to honor Joe Dumars. Here, Tony Battie has staked his claim for that number. With that in mind, might this jersey be for sale at the Amway Arena next year? And if so, would you buy it?
Photo manipulation with images from the NBA.com store
The bottom line is as follows: The Magic have a long-term need at power forward that nobody left on the market can fill.
John Denton of Florida Today has learned that the Magic will offer center Marcin Gortat a contract to play for the team this season. He has also learned that the Magic are undecided on power-forward James Augustine, last year's second-round draft pick who made Second-Team All-League in last week's Pepsi Pro Summer League. Augustine's salary of roughly $600,000 will be guaranteed of he is on the roster on July 31.
Meanwhile, the Tim Povtak of the Orlando Sentinel reports that Magic General Manager Otis Smith flew to Philadelphia to meet with Steve Mountain, Jameer Nelson's agent, in hopes of negotiating a contract extension for the three-year veteran point guard. Smith told Povtak that the discussions "went well" and that both sides will "continue to talk."
The Jameer business is interesting to me. In the Gortat story to which I linked, Denton speculates the following:
Nelson could be looking for a deal similar to the one T.J. Ford signed with the Toronto Raptors last summer. Ford signed a five-year extension worth $33 million. Whereas Nelson averaged 13 points, 4.3 rebounds and 0.9 steals a game, Ford averaged 14 points, 7.9 assists and 1.4 steals a game.
Jameer must be wearing some rose-colored glasses when he looks into the mirror. There's no way that he'll get T.J. Ford-like money. Hell, if Nelson played for Ford's team, he'd be the third point guard; backup Jose Calderon is good enough to start for nearly any team in the NBA.
That said, I like Jameer. I overreacted to his bad season when I wrote that I wouldn't be surprised if he were traded for a draft pick. Yes, his numbers were bad, but he's also a young guy who played in a bad offense with mediocre teammates. One bad year early in a career can't be looked at as a sign of impending doom. That said, if Nelson does not strongly pick up his play this season, he'll be looking at a career of coming off the bench, and quite possibly in a city other than Orlando.
Finally, the results of last week's poll question:
This week's question: "Which player's departure will most hurt the Magic?" I look forward to seeing those answers and to discussing them next week.
Magic General Manager Otis Smith, Rashard Lewis, and coach Stan Van Gundy pose together at the press conference announcing Lewis' arrival. Photo by Jacob Langston, Orlando Sentinel
The Magic made official what had been known for over a week by signing Rashard Lewis to a six-year deal believed to be worth $118 million. To be technical, he actually signed with the Seattle SuperSonics, his former team, which enabled him to get the maximum dollar and year amounts on his deal. Nonetheless, Rashard Lewis is now a part of the Magic.
Expectations for the Magic this coming season will undoubtedly be high. Lewis' deal is, by far, the largest in franchise history. Lewis will be paired with All-Star center Dwight Howard to form what we can only hope will be a deadly inside/out combination. Appearing on 'The Finish Line' on 740 AM, Otis Smith called his team "contenders." We'll certainly find out if he's right in the coming months.
Lewis' arrival creates a logjam at the small-forward position -- the Magic already have Hedo Turkoglu and Trevor Ariza -- but Smith didn't seem concerned. He dismissed the idea that Turkoglu, who started last year, is now expendable: "We'll play two forwards, two guards, and a center. We don't worry about power-forward versus small-forward," is the equivalent of what he said -- I have to paraphrase; I heard the program in the car and had no recording equipment.
Otis' stance indicates that he believes the Magic should play Turkoglu and Lewis at the same time, despite their similar builds and skill-sets. That's all well and good, but the Magic have to be concerned about rebounding with that unit, as both players do not perform well on the boards for someone their size.
Otis also alluded to Trevor Ariza's versatility: "Having Trevor Ariza play more than one position for us, that's important." If Otis is implying that Trevor Ariza will play shooting-guard, Magic fans should be concerned. Ariza lacks the outside shot that shooting-guards require, and playing in the backcourt neutralizes the impact of his athleticism.
Based on Smith's comments, the opening-day depth chart could look like this:
Position
Player
Depth
PG
Jameer Nelson
1
--
Keyon Dooling
2
--
Carlos Arroyo
3
SG
Trevor Ariza
1
--
J.J. Redick
2
--
Keith Bogans
3
SF
Rashard Lewis
1
--
Hedo Turkoglu
2
PF
Tony Battie
1
--
Pat Garrity
2
--
James Augustine
3
C
Dwight Howard
1
Magic fans, does that roster make us contenders? I don't think so, but it should move us up the ladder in the East. Is a marginal improvement worth $118 million? Decidedly not. If the core of Lewis and Howard does not win a championship, then Otis Smith deserves all the criticismhe's received.
On Thursday afternoon, Otis Smith told the Orlando Sentinel's Brian Schmitz that there was no truth to the rumor that the Magic were in talks with the Sacramento Kings about swapping Hedo Turkoglu for Ron Artest. Mark Stevens, Artest's agent, corroborated what Smith said: "I haven't heard anything like that. As far as I'm concerned, Ron is still with the Sacramento Kings."
Case closed, right?
Not so fast.
CGM of the MagicMadness forums posted a link to this interview with Arroyo conducted by Raúl Álzaga Sánchez-Bretón for the Spanish-language site Primera Ahora. I am not a Spanish expert -- it's been over a year since I took a Spanish class -- but I did my best to translate the juciest part of the article:
“Rashard Lewis es un fichaje de impacto, un anotador consistente que no teníamos en el equipo y nos va a ayudar mucho. Pero esa no es la única movida que hará Orlando. Hay otro 'caballo' que viene por ahí”, indicó Arroyo haciendo alusión a los rumores de que los Magic están cerca de adquirir al delantero Ron Artest proveniente de los Kings de Sacramento en cambio por el alero turco Hydayet 'Hedo” Turkoglu.“Artest es tremendo jugador y es un veterano probado. Ese nos cuadraría la línea frontal.”
In English (roughly):
"Rashard Lewis is an impact signing, a consistent shooter who we did not have last season. He will help a lot. But that is not the only move the Magic will make. There will be another 'horse*' coming this way", indicated Arroyo referencing the rumors that the Magic are close to acquiring forward Ron Artest from the Sacramento Kings for Hedo Turkoglu. "Artest is a tremendous player and a proven veteran. He firms up the front line."
A rough translation, to be sure, but it sure appears as though Carlos knows something we don't. Earlier in the interview, Arroyo mentions that he's met with Stan Van Gundy recently, which gives this story a bit more weight. If not, Sánchez-Bretón may just be trying to make waves. That'd be somewhat appropriate, considering that "Arroyo" translates into "stream."
*UPDATE: MAGICmanSAM of MagicMadness writes "In Puerto Rico, the word 'caballo' or 'horse' is used to describe someone that is really good at something. So when Arroyo said that, he was pretty much using Puerto Rican slang." Thanks for clearing that up, Sam.
This picture of Darko from the final game of last season's playoffs may depict the last time Darko wears a Magic uniform. Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel
Continuing the flurry of news today, ESPN.com reports that the Magic have withdrawn their offer to their own restricted free-agent, Darko Milicic. The move makes Darko an unrestricted free agent, meaning the Magic do not have the right to match any offer another team makes. Marc Cornstein, Darko's agent, minced no words when discussing the withdrawal:
"I think it is unfortunate how dishonest and deceitful Otis Smith and the Orlando Magic have been in the process. However, I think it can be a good thing for Darko. I believe Darko is the most coveted free agent in the market now. We are excited to get a fresh start with a team that truly believes in him."
It looks like we've seen the last of Darko here in Orlando, at least if Cornstein has his way. But there aren't too many teams that can offer Darko the money he wants, meaning he still might return to the Magic:
Only three teams, the Bobcats, Grizzlies and Bucks, have the cap room available to offer more than the mid-level exception. A fourth team, the Chicago Bulls, might be able to clear enough room if they were to renounce their rights to free agent Andres Nocioni.
UPDATE: The Orlando Sentinel has late-breaking news on this story: Marc Cornstein told the Sentinel that Darko Milicic will not play for the Magic as long as Otis Smith is the team's GM. Barring a bold executive decision to fire Smith by team owner Rich DeVos, the Magic have indeed seen the last of Darko. My take? Otis Smith genuinely wants to keep Darko, but is pissed at the games Cornstein has played in the media trying to drive up Darko's value, which is why he's been slow to negotiate a new deal. What a mess this has become.
This move is puzzling to me, as it means the Magic traded away an expiring contract (Kelvin Cato) and a valuable first-round draft pick for a net of a backup point guard, Carlos Arroyo. The ESPN article to which I linked quotes an unidentified team's general manager as saying Otis Smith has not returned phone calls regarding trades for Darko. Complicating the matter, Otis remains on record as saying that re-signing Darko is a top priority. Whom do you believe?
The last time we let a 7-footer leave in free-agency, he went on to dominate the league and win three straight titles.
Photo by the Associated Press
While I'm not saying Darko will ever replicate that success, I am saying there is a bad precedent here. Ominous.
Rashard Lewis shoots over fellow free-agent Gerald Wallace in a game from the 2006/2007 season. If Orlando's WKMG-TV can be believed, Lewis will be targeting baskets in Orlando next season. Photo by Robert Padgett, Reuters
None of the major news outlets have reported this news yet, but it's a doozy:
Rashard Lewis is coming to Orlando.
RealGM.com quotes WKMG, a news station based here in Orlando, as reporting that Lewis will sign with the Magic on July 11th. His deal is reportedly worth $75 M over five seasons. The item also says that the Magic will allow Darko Milicic to become an unrestricted free agent.
UPDATE: Although the RealGM link is still active, there's nothing to be found about the Lewis signing on WKMG's website, which certainly calls into question the legitimacy of the report.
If this news is indeed true, I have to say I'm disappointed. How can I be so let down when the top player on my free-agency wishlist is apparently coming to Orlando? Because Otis Smith has been telling Magic fans for months that re-signing Darko would be the Magic's top priority. Now, it appears as though that wasn't the truth after all. If the Magic were truly intent on retaining Darko, they would have tried to find a way to clear more salary-cap room, which would have enabled them to both re-sign Darko and sign a big-name free agent. Would it really have been that difficult to find a suitor for Hedo Turkoglu? Trading him would have cleared an additional $5 M in cap space, which certainly would have helped keep the Dwight/Darko/Free-Agent-to-be-Named-Later vision of the future intact.
Again, this news is not official by any means, but if it is, I'm not exactly thrilled. I feel like I've been lied to, and that's not something I take to kindly.
Considering that the Magic have yet to contact Darko Milicic, it's not a slam-dunk guarantee that he will return to Orlando next season. Photo by Joe Kaleita, Orlando Sentinel
In a rather shocking development, the Magic have still not contacted restricted free-agent Darko Milicic about re-signing with the team, the Orlando Sentinel reports. Marc Cornstein, Darko's agent, told the Sentinel's Brian Schmitz that more than 10 teams had contacted him to ask about Darko, and some had even made offers. Cornstein went on to say that he has been in contact with Darko, who is at home in Serbia, and told him about the latest development.
This news should shock Magic Nation. Consider this chat, which deals primarily with Darko's status, conducted with Orlando GM Otis Smith just a few days after the Magic's season ended:
On if signing Milicic is first on the timeline for the summer… “Yeah, I think you have to. Darko’s important to us so we’d like to get Darko done as soon as we possibly can, before we can move on anyplace else. Having Darko, as a part of our franchise, playing alongside Dwight [Howard] is big for us. I don’t think we can afford to lose a young big guy. Now, with that said, we still have to go through the process of getting the contract done and we necessarily can’t do that until July 1. But, we want him on our team. But that has to be the first thing, the first piece coming in. As you well know, there’s a cap hold there that kind of prevents you from doing anything else. Unless you renounce. And if you renounce you can’t sign him for another 60 days, so that’s a little sticky too.” [....] On Milicic being the first priority… “That’s the first thing you have to concern yourself with. I know it, Cornstein knows it – which may slow it down by the way. But that’s the first thing to take care of.”
On if he’ll make an offer on July 1 or see what the market is… “I think you can make him an offer right there and let it be done and out of the way or you can sit and let the market dictate. But you may lose a little bit of leverage in that you’re trying to move it fast, you may. But I’m not telling you anything that Marc doesn’t know, we’re not trading industry secrets.”
The writing is on the wall... or internet, as it were: Darko was the Magic's top priority, at least in late April. Perhaps the increased presence of other teams in the Rashard Lewis Sweepstakes has forced Otis to change his plan. If nothing else, someone from the Magic organization should have been on the phone with Cornstein at 12:01 this morning, even if it was just to say "We are very interested in Darko and look forward to discussing a contract with you soon." That's it. A simple phone call. It's good business.
The last news that connected Darko and the Magic, at least as far as I know, was this item posted Friday on the team's website. All it says is that the Magic tendered offers to Darko, Travis Diener, and Mario Kasun, which makes those players restricted free agents. Perhaps the Magic figured that tendering the offer was enough to show their interest in Darko. But that process is just a formality and isn't considered a sincere gesture.
This incident isn't the first time the Magic have slighted Darko: last summer, the Magic offered him a contract extension, only to take it off the table at the last minute. Could this latest show of disrespect turn Darko and Cornstein off to Orlando? It very well might, and that's bad news for the Magic.
As the July 1 start of NBA's free-agency period comes closer, 3QC is taking a look at the free agents who may be able to help the Magic the most by counting down from the 5th-best option to the best option. Today's post concerns the player who should be the Magic's third resort: Chauncey Billups.
One could argue that Chauncey Billups is the fifth-most-hated NBA personality to Magic fans, ranking just after Shaquille O'Neal, Tracy McGrady, John Weisbrod, and Brian Hill. Billups has torched the Magic throughout his career, and especially in the playoffs. For whatever reason, he has it out for us, and he lets it show on the basketball court.
Yet it shouldn't come as a surprise that most Magic fans would welcome Chauncey back to Orlando*. He's a two-time All-Star and an NBA Finals MVP. He's also a big, physical point guard with great passing skills. Oh, and his nickname is "Mr. Big Shot," because he's as clutch as they come. The Magic, a team that looked confused during close games last season due in large part to their lack of a "go-to guy", would certainly welcome Billups' cajones in the clutch.
"Everybody on their feet. Perhaps the final possession of OT. Billups and Duhon... Duhon back out there... Chauncey rises ... GOT IT! 8.2 to go! He does it for the ten-billionth time with the game on the line! Unbelievable! This guy is fearless!"
Efficiency is also a plus with Billups. He posted 3.6 assists per turnover last season, which is above average, especially for a guy who has the ball all the time. And it's been repeated a thousand times by now, but it's still important: the Magic were second-to-last in turnovers per game last season. Contrast that with the Pistons, who were first. Taking Billups and his basketball IQ from Detroit and putting it on our team would certainly ease the disparity between the two teams. His free-throw shooting is also impressive, which makes him even more valuable down the stretch. When the Magic are leading with just a few minutes to play and the other team is forced to foul, Billups would be able to single-handedly close-out games. Hell, he did this number on us at the end of Game 4 in last season's playoffs.
Chauncey Billups celebrates with the NBA Finals MVP trophy after winning the 2003/2004 NBA title with the Detroit Pistons. His experience and passing skills would make him a good fit in Orlando. Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein, Getty Images
However, there are a few downsides to Billups, at least as far as the Magic are concerned. He doesn't address the Magic's biggest need: perimeter scoring. Sure, he averaged 17 points per game last season for Detroit, but that was a decline from his 18.5 average the season before. One reason he was able to even score that much is because the Pistons started three great back-to-the-basket players in the frontcourt: Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace, and Chris Webber. If any of those players were double-teamed, Billups could get a wide-open look. The only Magic player who commands a double-team is Dwight Howard, and he's turnover-prone; he can't be counted on to swing the ball back out to Billups for the wide-open three. As such, his scoring figures to drop in Orlando.
For one thing, he's no spring chicken: he'll be 31 by the time the season starts, which gives the Magic only a few years to develop their young talent into a title-contending team. Speaking metaphorically, why hire the ace pilot if you haven't finished building his plane yet?
The Orlando Sentinel reported yesterday that the Magic expect Billups to re-sign with Detroit, but they will "gauge his interest" in playing here. I applaud Otis Smith and his staff for taking this step, as it's another indication that the team is committed to winning**. However, the Magic have to ask themselves just when they want to win. Billups would certainly upgrade the team in the short-term, but he is not a long-term solution. The Magic could win 45+ games next season with Billups at the helm, but I wouldn't be surprised if that number dwindled as he aged. I know Magic fans want to win right away, but I prefer delayed gratification; that is, I prefer that we sign a younger guy who may not make us better immediately, but who could slowly make us great over the course of the next several seasons until we become legitimate title contenders.
I'd be more than happy to see Chauncey play for the Magic next season. I just wish he had more years left in him.
Monday: Part One in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Vince Carter. Yesterday: Part Two in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Mo Williams. Tomorrow: Part Four in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown.
NOTES: *I say "back to" instead of just "to" because he was on the Magic's roster for part of the 1999/2000 season. He, along with Ron Mercer and Johnny Taylor, were acquired from Denver in exchange for Tariq Abdul-Wahad, Chris Gatling, and a draft pick. Billups spent his entire Magic career on the injured list and only appeared in-uniform once: for the team photo, which was taken at the end of the season. In August of 2000, the Magic renounced Billups' rights to make salary cap room to sign -- are you ready for this? -- Grant Hill.
**If the Billy Donovan Saga proved anything, it's that Otis is not afraid of going after the big names; he wants to win at any cost.
I wondered why some articles discussing this year's free agent class -- which includes All-Stars Chauncey Billups and Vince Carter as well as up-and-coming talents Mo Williams and Gerald Wallace -- described it as "weak."
Well, now I know.
This nifty rundown for Insider subscribers (which was available for free yesterday) by ESPN's John Hollinger shows that as many as 10 superstars could be on the free-agent market next summer if they a) don't sign extensions or b) exercise their Early Termination Option (ETO). The top five players listed: Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, and Shawn Marion, all of whom are All-Stars.
The Clippers' Elton Brand is just one of many All-Stars who might be free agents next summer, John Hollinger writes. Photo by Mark Avery, Associated Press
Hollinger concedes that the possibility of all those players actually being available is slim; it's a lock, for instance, that Duncan will not exercise his ETO. Why? Well, there's no reason for him to want to leave the Spurs; they're perennial championship contenders and they play in a city he loves. Some of that certainty takes away from the fun of the article, but it's still well worth reading, especially considering the implications for the Magic.
John Hollinger thinks Trevor Ariza will attract a lot of attention on the free-agent market next summer. With moves like this dunk over Jermaine O'Neal, it's not hard to imagine why. Photo by Stephen M. Dowell, Orlando Sentinel
After discussing the superstars with ETOs, Hollinger moves on to discuss lesser-known players with that ability who might attract some attention. He lists Keith Bogans, then writes that the most notable player from that group is our very own Trevor Ariza, whose salary Hollinger describes as "way below market."
It's true that Ariza is underpaid; last season, he earned just $3.1 M, only the ninth-best salary on the team. If he gets the starting small forward position this season and performs well, he'll have made an even stronger case that he's worth more money than he's getting. Thus, I'd expect him to opt-out, but only so he can renegotiate his contract and raise his salary. Barring an unexpected development, the Pistons' Chauncey Billups will do the same thing this summer, and the Wizards' Gilbert Arenas has already said he will do the same thing next summer.
As a Magic fan, the possibility of Trevor opting out scares me. While it seems unlikely that he'd want to go anywhere else, the Magic are notorious for lowballing their own free agents, with the most famous example being Shaquille O'Neal. However, Otis Smith seems committed to Trevor. After re-signing him last summer, Smith had the following to say:
“We are very pleased to bring Trevor back, as he is a key part of our young core. His athleticism and explosiveness will be a great asset to our team on both ends of the floor.”
This news isn't really news anymore -- it broke late last night -- but it would be irresponsible of me to not acknowledge the hiring of the Magic's new head coach, Stan Van Gundy. AWESOME. Too bad they didn't hire my favorite Stan.
The Orlando Sentinel has a pretty great article here about all the hoops the Magic had to jump through to get Billy Donovan out; to get Stan Van Gundy in; and to appease the Miami Heat, who wanted compensation for letting Van Gundy, a Heat consultant, out of his contract. Otis Smith and the rest of the Magic brass can catch up on some much-needed rest now.
I think Stan is a great choice as coach. He isn't as "big-time" as Billy Donovan, but he's a proven pro coach. Here's what I wrote about Stan on May 28th:
My take: Stan Van Gundy is another solid candidate. He compiled a record of 112-73 (.605) in two-plus seasons in Miami before Pat Riley forced him out. Like Iavaroni, Van Gundy is offensively minded, as the Heat improved their scoring average from 90.3 points per game to 101.5 points per game from his first year to his second. That increase in team scoring coincided with Dwyane Wade's individual scoring, which jumped from 16.2 to 24.1 in the same period. It seems to me that Van Gundy would be a good fit for the Magic, as he might be able to hone the offensive skills of Jameer Nelson and Trevor Ariza.
I stand by all those words.
More words from a while ago: Bethlehem Shoals' short piece from May 25th entitled "Why Orlando needs Stan Van Gundy." When I originally linked to that article, Shoals commented here and explained that hiring Van Gundy would establish "[Pat] Riley/SVG narrative tension." He makes an excellent point: Riley stripped Van Gundy of his head-coaching duties when it was clear the Heat were a good team, reinstalled himself as coach, then coached them to a championship. Okay, sure, he kept Van Gundy around as a consultant, but the way Van Gundy was kicked out was seriously bush-league. Having these two coach against each other alone is fantastic; the fact that their respective teams have a preexisting rivalry makes it that much sweeter.
The Orlando Sentinel reports that Magic free agent Darko Milicic is pleased with the arrival of Billy Donovan as the team's new head coach.
"I look at the hiring of Billy Donovan as a pro-Darko move," Marc Cornstein, Milicic's agent, told the Sentinel on Saturday.
[....]
Milicic, 21, was somewhat disappointed with the way [former coach Brian] Hill used him. He said after the season that he would have to explore going to a team that would allow him to facilitate the offense with his passing and shoot more from the outside.
The article goes on to mention that Cornstein has spoken with Milicic, who was enthusiastic about the news. It also states that several teams have already inquired as to Milicic's trade availability. It's amazing what four solid postseason games can do for one's stock.
Perhaps even more interesting is the Magic's need for what Otis Smith called "creative financing," which would let us retain Darko and still have enough money to sign a perimeter scorer. Any move to free up cap space would certainly have to involve either Hedo Turkoglu or Tony Battie, who earned $5.8 M and $5.7 M last season, respectively, according to USA Today. The chances of both those guys playing for us next season is growing slim.
Getting Billy Donovan to join us was only the first move in what's sure to be a busy, franchise-defining summer. I can't wait for what's next.
And to me, it is not about me, it is about all of us together as a team, one, trying to accomplish a goal. It was the same thing at Florida -- we were trying to accomplish a national championship, and it wasn't me, it was the administration, it was the assistant coaches, it was all the work the players put in, it was everybody was moving in the same direction.
That phrase proves, at least to me, that Billy Donovan gets It. He knows that his arrival is one of the biggest events in Magic history, but he also doesn't think of himself as a singular savior. He checked his ego at the door, in other words, and that's fantastic.
Slightly worrisome: he said that he's not really going to change his style of play.
Certainly it's going to be an adjustment, but I have got to coach to my personality and how I feel comfortable.
Fair enough, but I hope he isn't stubborn about sticking to his style if it becomes apparent that it isn't working. Say the Magic open the season 5-14 and are quickly in the cellar of the Eastern Conference. At that point, the Magic would have to do more than merely adjust. And what happens if Billy doesn't have a Plan B?
Uh oh.
On a more positive note, Donovan, like everyone else in the basketball universe, knows what the Magic need the most:
In looking at the team, certainly I think one of the needs I talked with Bob [Magic CEO Bob Vander Weide] and Otis [Magic GM Otis Smith] about is the need for a wing scorer, a perimeter scorer. I think that certainly is something that's a very, very high priority.
This is where the free agency rumors are really going to begin swirling. Of the five prized free agents this summer -- Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Gerald Wallace, and Mo Williams -- Carter, Lewis, and Wallace fit the profile. Each has his own pros and cons, but certainly those three players are now officially on the Magic's radar.
Finally, it's worth noting that Donovan dropped a few players' names when talking about the future, which seems to indicate that their jobs are safe. Dwight Howard and Trevor Ariza were two of those players, which I thought was obvious. He also mentioned Darko Milicic, which makes it appear as though he'll be retained this offseason. Oddly, he mentioned Jameer Nelson. While Jameer shouldn't be written off after one bad season, he also shouldn't be considered "untouchable." He's just not in the same class as Dwight, Darko, or Trevor, and should be made available for the right price.
In all, it's been a tremendously busy week for a franchise looking to become respectable once again. Donovan's enthusiasm and familiarity with players on the team should excite even the most cynical of Magic fans. For the first time in a long time, there is a buzz surrounding this organization and this city. The future is bright.
I'm speechless. This hiring is going to be a hit with many Magic fans. I just hope Otis Smith made his decision based on what's good for the team, not for the franchise as a whole. By that, I mean I hope he made the move because he's sure that Donovan will legitimately improve the Magic, not because he wants to get a new arena built for the team.
Wow.
I have to wipe egg off my face now. I wrote this paragraph only yesterday:
I wouldn't get too excited about this news. Billy Donovan is no dummy; he knows that the more he talks to pro teams, the more money UF will have to throw at him. Shaquille did the same thing to us ten years ago. The second he became a free agent, he knew he was going to sign with the Lakers. He told them that he was still undecided, which caused them to raise their offer. Then he left us. And that was all she wrote.
Well, he did what Shaq did, all right. But, contrary to what I first thought, UF was being strung along, not us.
I'll file this one under "C" for "Coaching Developments, Least Surprising." According to Tim Povtak of the Sentinel, the Magic have contacted the agent who represents Billy Donovan. The Magic want to know if he is interested in leaving the University of Florida, where he won back-to-back national championships, for the NBA. This news comes despite of reports that Donovan is close to signing an extension with UF.
I'm not thrilled at the prospect of hiring Donovan. College coaches rarely enjoy success in the NBA. John Calipari, Tim Floyd, Lon Kruger, and Rick Pitino are just four college coaches who jumped to the pros and failed miserably. However, it could be argued that none of those coaches had a pro roster as talented as the Magic's right now, so Donovan might succeed here more than I expected. Former Magic head coach Doc Rivers, currently with Boston, agreed with that sentiment when he said the following:
"I've never bought into that thinking that they can't make it in the NBA. It's still just basketball. If you're a good coach and you have talent, you can be successful."
Fair enough, but I still doubt Donovan would leave UF under any circumstances. He has everything he wants there. With the Magic, he'd only be the head coach, because there's no way Otis Smith would ever relinquish his GM duties to him.
I wouldn't get too excited about this news. Billy Donovan is no dummy; he knows that the more he talks to pro teams, the more money UF will have to throw at him. Shaquille did the same thing to us ten years ago. The second he became a free agent, he knew he was going to sign with the Lakers. He told them that he was still undecided, which caused them to raise their offer. Then he left us. And that was all she wrote.
For another fan's take on the Donovan situation and what it might mean for Stan Van Gundy, I recommend reading this post by Black and Blue at his blog.
One more note: the Sentinel's report today mentions that Larry Brown, who has coached every basketball team in the history of the world at least once, told the Sentinel that he would consider returning to coaching. If the itch is still there, Larry should scratch it. Just not here. He already has a testy relationship with Darko Milicic and Trevor Ariza, both of whom he buried on the bench while choaching Detroit and New York, respectively. His inability to connect with younger players caused the U.S. Olympic team he coached in 2004 to win only a bronze medal. In short, he's not fit to coach the Magic, and I do not endorse his candidacy.
I need to return to Seven Seconds or Less, the book about the Phoenix Suns to which I alluded in my last post, now. I hope to have my impressions on Suns assistant Marc Iavaroni posted by tomorrow night.
The Otis Smith Era began only yesterday, yet he's already facing criticism from at least one journalist: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel.
I don't always agree with Bianchi. Consider this column he wrote defending Brian Hill, in which he asserted "[t]he game's greatest coaches would be .500 with this roster," which I think is a totally bogus statement. If we had, say, Jerry Sloan coaching this team last season, we only would have won one more game? Please.
But this post does not concern that old column. Rather, it concerns this one, published today, in which Bianchi concludes not only that it is now up to GM Otis Smith to improve the Magic, but also that Smith should be fired if the club doesn't show significant improvement. In other words, Bianchi wrote today what I wrote yesterday, only he did so far more eloquently. Some excerpts:
Let there be no doubt about it, this is now Otis Smith's team. And the clock is ticking, the fuse is burning and the keg of dynamite is now sitting underneath a cartoon panel that says, "GM's Job Security." [....] Make no mistake about it, the firing of Coach Brian Hill was all Smith's idea. Sure, [Magic President and CEO Bob] Vander Weide had to sign off on it, but he signed off because Smith was adamant the Magic needed to move in another direction. Smith is the one who travels to nearly every game with the team. He's the one who talks to the players and deals with the coaches. He's the one who didn't like the way Hill was coaching and developing this roster. [....] Hill has received most of the public criticism over the last two years, but Smith should be held just as accountable for the Magic's mediocrity. Smith claims Hill didn't make the most of the talent he was given. I would argue Smith has an inflated opinion of the talent he gave Hill.
That last excerpt is particularly striking to me because I've always felt that the Magic weren't as talented as Smith was boasting. I also believe that it's the responsibility of the GM, not the coach, to provide the team with talent. Smith didn't quite do that this season: The Magic went 5-14 from January 12th, a loss to the Lakers in L.A., to February 22nd, the day of the trade deadline. That stretch dropped our record from 22-14 (.611) to 27-28 (.491), yet Otis Smith said "I like our team," and refused to make a deal. To be fair, hardly any teams made moves at the deadline, so Smith wasn't alone in his inaction. The whole lack of movement at the deadline disgusted Bill Simmons enough that he wrote a column, entitled Welcome to the No Balls Association, in which he graded each team and how their lack of activity hurt them. The whole piece is hilarious and worth reading, but here's what Bill had to say about the Magic:
ORLANDO:F-minus-minus-minus I like Otis Smith's philosophy here: We don't own a 2007 No. 1 pick, our team is sinking like a stone, we have Grant Hill's expiring deal ($16.9 million) to move for an asset and save our season, we desperately need scoring ... screw it, let's stand pat. Hey, that's one way to keep your job -- just don't do anything. How can the Magic fire you if you don't do anything? I'd like to see how long Otis could keep this strategy going -- Orlando's owners probably won't catch on for another 2-3 years.
It's eerie how life imitates art in this instance.
The folks over at FireBrianHill got their wish fulfilled. Maybe the hypothetical owners of FireOtisSmith will get theirs next.
A day after Brian Hill was "reassigned", former Magic assistant Bob Hill contacted the organization about its head coaching position, the Orlando Sentinel reports. Last season, Bob Hill coached the Seattle SuperSonics to a 31-51 record. He was fired during the offseason.
But that's not where the story ends. In addition to asking about the job, Hill also told the Magic that he could bring Seattle free-agent Rashard Lewis with him.
I get the impression that GM Otis Smith likes what Hill has to say. Apart from dropping Rashard Lewis' name, the Sentinel reports that Hill said the Magic would play at a faster pace under his tutelage. Smith has said one of the factors leading to Brian Hill's firing was his slow-paced, grind-it-out offensive strategy. It sounds like Smith wants to see the Magic "run and gun" like the Phoenix Suns, and Bob Hill has picked up on it. Like everyone else following the NBA, Hill also noticed the Magic's need for scoring, as they finished 27th in the league in that statistic last season. Lewis provides offense, as he averaged 22.4 points per game for Seattle last season. As a bonus, he shot well from the free-throw line at 84.1%.
In short, Bob Hill wants to run, he knows our flaws, and he can bring with him a 27-year-old swingman who can score. We'd be stupid not to hire him, right?
Wrong. Way wrong.
Let's not wear rose-colored glasses here. I know I mentioned this earlier, but it bears repeating: the Sonics were 31-51 last season under Hill. Granted, they suffered injuries to Ray Allen and Lewis, but the Magic also suffered injuries to key players and they still managed to win 40 games. Also, although bringing Lewis in would add a star perimeter player to complement Dwight Howard, it would also use up valuable cap space. Lewis will almost certainly command a max salary, meaning the Magic would not have enough money to re-sign Darko Milicic.
We need to re-sign Darko Milicic.
His modest numbers this season mask the fact that he came off the bench when he should have been starting. He was also used ineffectively, as Brian Hill and the Magic coaches envisioned him as a traditional, back-to-the-basket big man. While his post skills have certainly improved, he's much more effective as a distributor and jump shooter in the vein of Chris Webber. And at 21, he's much younger than Lewis is. Further, a frontcourt tandem of Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic would prove formidable, especially in the meek Eastern Conference.
In short, Rashard Lewis is good for the short term, but Darko Milicic has more potential for long-term success. Thus, he would be the better signee, and Hill's offer of Lewis doesn't persuade me that he would make a good coach for this team.
There also has to be a question of character being raised here. It's one thing to contact an employer to inquire about a job opening; I would know, as I've spent plenty of time doing just that over the past month. However, it's quite another to contact an employer to inquire about a job opening AND dangle a carrot in front of it. It smacks of desperation and amateurism on the part of Bob Hill, and the Magic would be wise to turn down the offer.
Brian Hill will not return as head coach of the Orlando Magic the Orlando Sentinel learned this afternoon. The club is soon expected to announce that he will be offered a position with the organization.
I'm sure Hill will accept the other position, which will likely only include ceremonial duties like occasionally showing up at practice and posing in the team photo. I think the other job offer is the Magic's way of avoiding any public outcry. "We didn't put him out on his ass," they can say. "We gave him another job!"
Not that anyone's going to complain about this loss. I don't think it's a wise move, at least not at this point, because this team is composed of young players who need consistency. That said, Brian Hill's grind-it-out offensive philosophy is not greatly suited to this team, which would probably benefit from playing at a faster pace. I wouldn't call this move a surefire way to improve the Magic, but I don't think the team will regress. Young players don't typically get worse. If nothing else, the Magic broke even here.
Otis Smith is going to have a lot of explaining to do if this team doesn't show significant improvement next season. He's already fired the coach and will have to make some tough decisions regarding free agents in the offseason. The firing of Hill marks, at least in my mind, the official beginning of the Otis Smith Era. If the team fails, it's on him.
Earlier tonight, when NBA Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver revealed that the Portland Trail Blazers won the NBA's draft lottery, I immediately flashed back to my elementary school days in the early-to-mid 1990s, better known to Magic fans the Shaq and Penny era. Why?
With the top pick in the draft, the Trail Blazers will likely select Ohio State center Greg Oden, who many experts have touted as the next Patrick Ewing. The ESPN broadcast of the lottery this evening said as much, which means that Oden is regarded even higher than Shaquille O'Neal was.
So Oden is Portland's Shaq. Who's their Penny? Look no further than Brandon Roy, Portland's representative at the lottery and this season's Rookie of the Year, who shares Penny Hardaway's skills as a good shooter and ballhandler. It's not farfetched to imagine Oden and Roy combining to make Portland an exciting and dynamic team next season in the same manner that Shaq and Penny did so in the 1990s. You can be sure that I'll pay close attention to the Blazers as those two electrifying young players develop. It'll be like a trip through the Wayback Machine.
Sadly, this lottery means very little to today's Magic team, at least for the moment; qualifying for the playoffs eliminated the Magic from lottery contention, and their pick this season goes to Detroit as part of the Darko Milicic/Carlos Arroyo trade in 2006. Seeing as how this draft class is the deepest in many years, I'd like to see the Magic make a move to pick somewhere in the top 15. What are their options?
The possibility that immediately jumps out is trading Jameer Nelson and one of three second-round selections to the Atlanta Hawks for the 11th overall pick. While the Hawks would certainly hate to part with the 11th pick, making this trade would give them the young starting point guard they so desperately need. They also would keep the 3rd overall pick, which they could then use to draft a center or power forward, perhaps Yi Jianlian or Brandan Wright. Meanwhile, with the 11th pick, the Magic could draft a better point guard, such as Mike Conley Junior, Javaris Crittenton, or Acie Law IV. Trading a fourth-year point guard for a rookie one seems risky at first, but Conley, Crittenton, and Law each have more potential than Nelson does.
If the Hawks aren't interested in Nelson, the Philadelphia 76ers might be. Nelson played his college ball at nearby Saint Joseph's University, and the 76ers are also in need of a point guard. They acquired Andre Miller from Denver in the Allen Iverson trade, but rumor has it that Miller might be traded himself for the right price. Nelson would give the 76ers a younger, quicker point guard to play alongside franchise cornerstone Andre Iguodala. The 76ers pick 12th, so the Magic would only lose one pick if they make this deal as opposed to the Atlanta one. However, it's unlikely that Philadelphia would trade its highest first-round pick for a fourth-year point guard, so the Magic might have to include cash or future considerations to get the deal through.
The possibility of trading for a draft pick adds another item to Magic GM Otis Smith's "To-Consider" list. As if that weren't long enough already.
This news is far from official, and I'm getting it third-hand from Four Free Throws, but if appearances are to be believed, it looks like Brian Hill will be back as the coach of the Magic next season. An excerpt:
Our sources at the RDV spotted a jolly Otis Smith walking out from the Magic offices this afternoon, and soon after a smiling Brian Hill appeared with Dwight Howard at the courts, and they joked around a bit before walking off. Suffice it to say: it did not look like B. Hill was getting fired.
I wanted to hold off on posting any Brian Hill news until something official came out, but this information was just too good for me not to pass it along.
If this news is true and Hill indeed returns, I think it'd be for the best. Rick Adelman would have been the ideal replacement for Hill because he's less controlling and plays at a more up-tempo pace. Basically, he's more suited to coach the Magic's young, athletic players than Hill is. However, since Adelman has replaced Jeff Van Gundy in Houston, and Sam Mitchell re-upped with Toronto, Hill appears to be the best coach left. Might as well have some consistency.
It wasn't too long ago that Magic GM Otis Smith guaranteed that Brian Hill would finish his contract, which runs for another two seasons, coaching the Magic. Now, the Orlando Sentinel reports, those circumstances have changed.
The Sentinel reports Magic President Bob Vander Weide as saying the following:
"People ask me if Brian Hill will be back as our coach. All I can say is that I have no answer for that right now. Sometimes there are no guarantees in life."
Apparently, Vander Weide's dissatisfaction with Hill has more to do with the team's disappointing finish. There is also a philosophical issue that comes into play. Vander Weide would like to see the Magic "run the ball more," according to the Sentinel, a strategy I suggested a little under a month ago. But I digress.
I think the philosophical argument is probably the best case for dumping Hill. Sure, I've defended him in the past, and I still think that Smith is more to blame for the Magic's woes than Hill is. However, being unable to muster a single win against an older, slower Detroit team in eight tries this season indicates that making adjustments is not Hill's strong suit. How can a team expect to win if its coaching staff doesn't effectively analyze opponents' strategies and then work to counteract them? Hrm.
I'm not going to come out and say that I think Hill should be fired, because that would be disingenuous of me. However, the Pistons series really caused me to reconsider my earlier defense of Hill, and now my mood towards him has shifted from 'supportive' to 'ambivalence.' It's become evident to me, and to Vander Weide as well, that Hill although may be a good coach, his regimented style is not the best fit for this young team. Time will tell.
The folks at FireBrianHill must be cheering, and I suppose it's nice to know that some Magic fans might get their way this season. It's a shame that it has to come at the expense of the franchise's most significant coach.
Photo manipulation with images from the NBA.com store
