UPDATED: Free Agency is Upon Us: Is Rashard Lewis Out of Reach?

Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith can't get down on himself if free-agent Rashard Lewis suddenly becomes unavailable.
Photo by Red Huber, Orlando Sentinel

At the stroke of midnight just moments ago, the period during which NBA teams may negotiate with free agents began. In all likelihood, Otis Smith is already on the phone with Rashard Lewis, hoping to set up a meeting in Orlando in hopes of signing this summer's top free-agent prize. But it might be a tougher sell than anticipated. If there is any truth to this report, kindly pointed out by CLos over at Magic Madness, Lewis is only using us to drive up his asking price with the SuperSonics in hopes of forcing a sign-and-trade deal involving the SuperSonics and either the Mavericks or Rockets.

UPDATE: The Houston trade is no longer a rumor and a great fear now strikes me; the story showed up on ESPN.com early Sunday morning. Said Rockets GM Daryl Morey:

"We really want him. We think he would be a significant player for us. Rashard would have to be motivated to come."

Lewis played his high-school ball in Houston and could be motivated to return home.

Then there's the report to which I linked yesterday, which states that the Heat are dangling Udonis Haslem and Jason Williams' expiring contract in front of the Sonics in exchange for Lewis.

These reports, if they can be believed, seem to damper the Magic's hopes of getting Lewis, who knows the Mavericks, Rockets, and Heat are much closer to contending than the Magic are. Think of the star power already on each of those teams:

• Dallas has Dirk Nowitzki, who won the MVP award last season, and the young Josh Howard, who was a first-time All-Star selection last season.
• Houston has arguably the best inside-outside combination in the league with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. New head coach Rick Adelman is well-known for being popular with his players.
• Miami has Shaquille O'Neal, who is the most dominant center of this generation, and Dwyane Wade, who single-handedly won Miami the title in 2006.
  

Fortunately, Dallas and Houston don't have much to offer Seattle in terms of a trade. Young point guard Devin Harris is the only asset Dallas has, and he'd have to be inked to a hefty extension for the salaries to match up. Houston could put Rafer Alston, Shane Battier, and Jake Tsakilidis together, but Alston and Battier have unattractive, long-running contracts and Tsakilidis is a total stiff.

Miami is what worries me the most. Udonis Haslem is a valuable role-player in this league, and Jason Williams' hefty contract comes off the books in 2008, just in time for the Sonics to make a play in free-agency. Of course, Lewis would have to approve any sign-and-trade deal, but why wouldn't he approve one to Miami? After all, they're only one year removed from the title, and Lewis knows that he could make them a contender again in a hurry. Miami has all the benefits of Orlando -- beautiful weather, no state income taxes -- and it can contend immediately.

What seemed like a sure thing just days ago now seems far less of one. I wouldn't give up hope yet, though; those rumors may not be true and Lewis may prefer to play in Orlando after all. But after hearing this news, I suspect Otis Smith would do well to get Gerald Wallace on the line as well.

2008 Free Agency and its Impact on the Magic: Will Trevor Ariza Stay?

I wondered why some articles discussing this year's free agent class -- which includes All-Stars Chauncey Billups and Vince Carter as well as up-and-coming talents Mo Williams and Gerald Wallace -- described it as "weak."

Well, now I know.

This nifty rundown for Insider subscribers (which was available for free yesterday) by ESPN's John Hollinger shows that as many as 10 superstars could be on the free-agent market next summer if they a) don't sign extensions or b) exercise their Early Termination Option (ETO). The top five players listed: Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, and Shawn Marion, all of whom are All-Stars.

The Clippers' Elton Brand is just one of many All-Stars who might be free agents next summer, John Hollinger writes.
Photo by Mark Avery, Associated Press

Hollinger concedes that the possibility of all those players actually being available is slim; it's a lock, for instance, that Duncan will not exercise his ETO. Why? Well, there's no reason for him to want to leave the Spurs; they're perennial championship contenders and they play in a city he loves. Some of that certainty takes away from the fun of the article, but it's still well worth reading, especially considering the implications for the Magic.

John Hollinger thinks Trevor Ariza will attract a lot of attention on the free-agent market next summer. With moves like this dunk over Jermaine O'Neal, it's not hard to imagine why.
Photo by Stephen M. Dowell, Orlando Sentinel

After discussing the superstars with ETOs, Hollinger moves on to discuss lesser-known players with that ability who might attract some attention. He lists Keith Bogans, then writes that the most notable player from that group is our very own Trevor Ariza, whose salary Hollinger describes as "way below market."

It's true that Ariza is underpaid; last season, he earned just $3.1 M, only the ninth-best salary on the team. If he gets the starting small forward position this season and performs well, he'll have made an even stronger case that he's worth more money than he's getting. Thus, I'd expect him to opt-out, but only so he can renegotiate his contract and raise his salary. Barring an unexpected development, the Pistons' Chauncey Billups will do the same thing this summer, and the Wizards' Gilbert Arenas has already said he will do the same thing next summer.

As a Magic fan, the possibility of Trevor opting out scares me. While it seems unlikely that he'd want to go anywhere else, the Magic are notorious for lowballing their own free agents, with the most famous example being Shaquille O'Neal. However, Otis Smith seems committed to Trevor. After re-signing him last summer, Smith had the following to say:

“We are very pleased to bring Trevor back, as he is a key part of our young core. His athleticism and explosiveness will be a great asset to our team on both ends of the floor.”

Amen, Otis. Don't let this future star soar away.

Tim Povtak: Magic Should Wait for Arenas in 2008

Gilbert Arenas takes a bow at center court after scoring 60 points in a win against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Photo by the Associated Press

Tim Povtak, the Orlando Sentinel's NBA reporter, wrote in yesterday's paper that the Magic should not spend any of their salary-cap this summer so they will have enough room to attract All-Star point guard Gilbert Arenas when he becomes a free agent in 2008:

The Magic plan to pursue 27-year-old forward Rashard Lewis of Seattle, but so will 20 other teams looking to improve in a very shallow free-agent class, all willing to take drastic steps to make it happen. Lewis would help the Magic significantly next season.

Yet Gilbert Arenas could help them even more -- if they can be patient.

Arenas, 25, is the do-everything guard from Washington who will be a free agent in 2008, an all-star the past three seasons and already one of the game's finest players.

Lewis is good, but he is not close to Arenas-good.

[....]

By the summer of 2008, Arenas will be tired of playing on a team without a decent center, and beating his head against the wall with little hope of going deep in the playoffs with the Wizards.

It seems like a crazy idea; why pass on a sure shot at signing Lewis, Gerald Wallace, or Vince Carter and take a chance that we can outbid Arenas' other suitors next summer?

It gets even tricker: Arenas wrote on his NBA.com blog that he's sure he's staying in Washington; his opting out has everything to do with money and nothing to do with wanting to leave the team:

When I signed my original deal, I believed that I would become a max player so I had a player’s option. So, I make 11 and 12 million the next two years and then the extension would put me at 12.5, 13, 14 in the three years of the extension. The part that I got frustrated about the extension was that I have to play next year at that figure no matter what and then if I extend, all I’m getting is four years guaranteed. But, if I opt out after next year, I’ll have six years guaranteed because I’ll sign a whole new six year contract.

So at the end of the day, it will be a six-year deal instead of a four-year deal and instead of starting at 12.5 or 13 million, I’ll be starting at 14 or 15 million and I’ll be a max player.

This has nothing to do with me leaving or trying to look for other teams. I have to do it:

1. To get more years and
2. To increase my pay.

The risk doesn't end there. Arenas is notoriously eccentric, as documented here in a New York Times article by Chuck Klosterman. One of his quirks in particular stands out as relevant to this situation. From Gilbertology.net:

Fans began noticing his quirky antics when Gilbert said he decided between the Wizards and Clippers by flipping a coin 10 times. When the Clippers’ side came up eight times, Arenas says he knew what he had to do: go “against the odds”, although he later said he made up the story for “fun and entertainment.”

Assume that Povtak's right and Arenas indeed gets sick of not having any help down low. Would Arenas go "against the odds" -- turning down the chance of playing alongside two dominant big men and making Orlando a contender -- and stick with the Wizards? Would he throw logic out the window again and base his decision on another coin flip? There's no way to tell at this point, and that's worrisome.

Illustration by Lee Bermejo for Batman-On-Film

We Magic fans know what it's like to gamble in free-agency. We watched as the Magic signed an injured Grant Hill to a max deal seven years ago, and he's played in only 40% of the Magic's games over that span. Perhaps more infamously, we watched as the Magic lowballed Shaquille O'Neal in their bid to re-sign him eleven years ago, and he decided to bolt for the L.A. Lakers.

I've weighed the pros and cons of waiting to sign Arenas several times and I still can't come up with a conclusive answer. If we don't wait, we'll almost certainly have Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, or Gerald Wallace in a Magic uniform next season, which will give us some much-needed perimeter scoring and firepower. If we wait, we'll trot out the same team we had last season, which went 40-42 and finished 8th in a mediocre conference, and likely won't improve that standing unless Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick have breakout seasons. Can we take another year of mediocrity in hopes of landing one of the NBA's premier scorers?

I don't claim to speak for all Magic fans, which is why I'm leaving this question up to the 3QC readership.

Should the Magic save their free-agency money this summer so they can sign Gilbert Arenas next summer?
	Yes
	No
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