On Second Thought...: Using Statistics to Re-do the All-Defense Lineup

One week ago today, I made a post in which I wrote that Keyon Dooling should start at point guard for the Magic if the team went with a defense-oriented starting lineup. My reasoning came from objectively watching Dooling play; he's the best defender the Magic have under 6'6" tall. He also played minutes at point guard down the stretch last season as Carlos Arroyo fell out of favor with Brian Hill.

All the recent discussion about the validity of statistics in the basketblogosphere got me thinking, "How would that defensive-oriented lineup change if I were to use statistics instead of my own knowledge about the players?" I’ll go into two possibilities in that regard momentarily.

The statistics discussion began over at Plissken at the Buzzer, where Carter Blanchard poo-pooed John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) because it rated the likes of Brent Barry and Earl Boykins more highly than it rated Lamar Odom. Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty responded in this post on Ballhype, and the discussion has spun-off into so many posts on so many blogs that it’s hard to keep them straight.

I personally put a fair amount of trust in PER because it

• Compiles a player's offensive and defensive statistics into one number,
• Adjusts that number for playing-time and league pace, and
• Normalizes that number to 15 each season; that is, a marginal player will have a PER below 15 and a good player will have a PER above 15.

Using data from the incomparable 82games, here is what the Magic's best defensive lineup would be, derived from subtracting the PER a player allows opponents he is guarding from a player’s own PER:

1. Carlos Arroyo (15.6 own, 14.3 allowed, +1.3)
2. Keyon Dooling (11.2 own, 13.4 allowed -2.2)
3. Rashard Lewis (21.6 own, 15.5 allowed, +6.1)
4. Tony Battie (10.3 own, 15.2 allowed, -4.9)
5. Dwight Howard (23 own, 12.9 allowed +10.1)

Notice that Dooling and Battie allow better PERs than they post themselves. What’s sad is that those two players were, by this measure, the best at their respective positions last season even with those negative differences.

However, this lineup only works if you trust PER and 82games' assessment of each player's position; according to that site, for instance, Dooling was on the floor for 35% of the Magic's total minutes last season, and he spent 88.5% of that time at shooting guard. The table, available here, is reproduced in image form below:


But a statistical system in which Lamar Odom (15.9 points per game, 9.8 rebounds per game, 4.8 assists per game in 2006/2007; 16.1 PER) is rated lower than Brent Barry (8.5 points per game, 2.1 rebounds per game, 1.8 assists per game in 2006/2007; 16.6 PER) surely must be flawed, right? After all, players who rarely get off the bench do not have a fair amount of data from which to draw their PERs, which is why our very own James Augustine (a total of 7 minutes played in two games last season) posted a PER of 16.6, which also exceeds Lamar Odom's showing.

Perhaps a better indicator of a player's defensive effectiveness is his plus/minus rating, adjusted on a per-100 possessions basis. For instance, the Magic allowed 106.1 points per 100 possessions when Dwight Howard was on the floor, but just 105.4 points per 100 possessions when he was off it. Using this information, we can see that, at least last season, the Magic were actually a slightly better defensive team when Howard was not in the game.

Here's how the all-defense lineup looks when using on-court/off-court defensive performance as the criterion. Note that a negative differential is good because it means the team allows fewer points per 100 possessions when the player is on the floor:

1. Carlos Arroyo (103.8 on, 106.9 off, -3.1)
   
2. Keith Bogans (105.7 on, 106.0 off, -0.3)
   
3. Trevor Ariza (103.1 on, 107.2 off, -4.1)
   
4. Tony Battie (103.4 on, 107.5 off, -4.1)
   
5. Dwight Howard (106.1 on, 105.4 off, +0.7)
   

Interesting how Keith Bogans and Trevor Ariza show up here, but not in the previous list. This indicates, at least to me, that Bogans and Ariza are better team defenders than they are individual defenders.

Even more interesting: Dooling’s per-100 possession defensive differential isn’t so great; when he is on the floor, the Magic allow 108.1 points per 100 possessions. But when he’s off the floor, the Magic’s defense is better, allowing 104.6 points per 100 possessions. I have no idea how to explain that. Even more puzzling is Jameer Nelson’s numbers. When he’s on the floor, the Magic allow 107.1 points per 100 possessions. Does that mean that Jameer is a better defender than Keyon is? It seems to indicate that fact is true, although we, as Magic fans, know it not to be.

I now pose the question to you: if you had to select a defensive-oriented starting lineup for the Magic, whom would you choose?

This discussion of statistics has left me tired; I need to shut my brain off, and perhaps you do too. For you, then, I present Hedo Turkoglu getting dunked on by Marco Belinelli in Eurobasket competition. No wonder Turk doesn't appear on any of these defensive lineups, although, in fairness, he was the weak-side defender on the play and was not responsible for Belinelli getting into the lane.

Thanks to Tom Ziller for originally posting that clip over at AOL Fanhouse.

UPDATED - Who's Under Contract: A Tentative 2007/2008 Orlando Magic Roster

The following is a list of players the Magic have under contract for at least the 2007/2008 season. It will be updated as the summer progresses. The timestamp will be changed with each update, which will move the post back to the top of the page.

	No.	Player	Pos.	Contract Expires
	1	Trevor Ariza	SF	2008/2009 1
	30	Carlos Arroyo	PG	2007/2008
	40	James Augustine	PF	2007/2008
	4	Tony Battie	PF	2009/2010
	10	Keith Bogans	SG	2008/2009
	5	Keyon Dooling	PG	2007/2008
	31	Adonal Foyle	PF	2008/2009
	8	Pat Garrity	PF	2007/2008
	13	Marcin Gortat	C	2008/2009
	12	Dwight Howard	C	2013/20142
	9	Rashard Lewis	SF	2012/20133
	14	Jameer Nelson	PG	2007/20084
	7	J.J. Redick	SG	2009/20105
	15	Hedo Turkoglu	SF	2009/20106
--	--	Empty roster spot 1	--	--

Notes:
¹: Can opt-out at the end of the 2007/2008 season.
²: Signed five-year, $85.9 million contract extension, which will come into effect following the 2007/2008 season.
³: Signed six-year, $127.2 million contract with Seattle, then was traded to Magic.
⁴: Agent and team in negotiations for contract extension.
⁵: 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons are team options.
⁶: Can opt-out at the end of the 2008/2009 season.

Carlos Arroyo Shows Masonry Skills as Mexico Upsets Puerto Rico

Carlos Arroyo, who played a key role on the Puerto Rico team that beat the U.S. in the 2004 Olympics, was not at his best tonight against Mexico.
Photo by the Associated Press

If the Magic want to have their new arena built on-schedule, they might consider asking Carlos Arroyo to lend a hand. His brick-laying skills might come in handy.

Playing for Puerto Rico in the FIBA Tournament of the Americas, the Magic's backup point guard shot 0-for-10 from the field and scored four points as Mexico pulled off the upset.

I graded Carlos highly at the end of last season, and he typically plays well in international competition, so I was surprised to see just how awful he was tonight. If the game is rebroadcast, I might have to watch it. And if this game is any indication of Carlos' skills deteriorating, he may join Pat Garrity and Keith Bogans as one of the Magic's designated Gatorade-holders.

Of course, he might have just had a bad game and it's just an anomaly. But when you're as starved for Magic-related news as I am, you have to play up everything.

The Tournament of the Americas serves as a qualifier for the 2008 Olympics. The U.S. team, which features Dwight Howard on its roster, tips off its first game at 11:00 PM against Venezuela. My DVR, however, says the game doesn't start until 1:00 AM. Go figure.

ESPN: Grant Hill to Sign with Phoenix Suns

Just a day after withdrawing their offer to Darko Milicic, the Orlando Magic lost another free-agent on Thursday when Grant Hill agreed to a two-year deal with the Phoenix Suns. ESPN.com has the story, as does the Orlando Sentinel.

Grant Hill is leaving the Magic for Phoenix Suns, with whom he will attempt to rock 'n' sock the West's best teams next season.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

I made the case for keeping Grant Hill a month ago, and I stand by all my statements. I would have loved to see Grant in a Magic uniform for another season, at least long enough to let J.J. Redick prove himself as a starter. Alas, that won't happen, and Grant's departure leaves a huge void at the two-guard.

With Grant Hill's departure, Keith Bogans, Keyon Dooling, and J.J. Redick all figure to play more minutes at shooting guard next season.
Bogans photo by Bill Koshroun, the Associated Press; Dooling photo by Jacob Langston, the Orlando Sentinel; Redick photo by Phelan M. Ebanhack, the Associated Press

That said, I'm happy for Grant. He made the decision that was best for him, and I can't fault him for it. Not only will he play for a title contender, but he may even get the chance to start for one; the ESPN article to which I linked mentions that either Hill or Boris Diaw will get the starting nod for Mike D'Antoni's team next season. Grant's choice speaks volumes about his character. He's not content with riding someone else's coattails on the way to a title, as Mitch Richmond did with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2002; he wants to contribute and to earn his money, which will be $3 million over two seasons.

I'll close with some ammunition for those of you who do not share my admiration for Grant Hill. We paid Grant $93 M over the course of his contract, which translates into approximately:

• $455,882.35 per game, or
• $27,844.31 per point, or
• $14110.15 per minute.

Grant Hill may be a great basketball player, but if NBA-ers were rated in Consumer Reports, Hill would certainly not be a 'Best Buy'.

2008 Free Agency and its Impact on the Magic: Will Trevor Ariza Stay?

I wondered why some articles discussing this year's free agent class -- which includes All-Stars Chauncey Billups and Vince Carter as well as up-and-coming talents Mo Williams and Gerald Wallace -- described it as "weak."

Well, now I know.

This nifty rundown for Insider subscribers (which was available for free yesterday) by ESPN's John Hollinger shows that as many as 10 superstars could be on the free-agent market next summer if they a) don't sign extensions or b) exercise their Early Termination Option (ETO). The top five players listed: Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, and Shawn Marion, all of whom are All-Stars.

The Clippers' Elton Brand is just one of many All-Stars who might be free agents next summer, John Hollinger writes.
Photo by Mark Avery, Associated Press

Hollinger concedes that the possibility of all those players actually being available is slim; it's a lock, for instance, that Duncan will not exercise his ETO. Why? Well, there's no reason for him to want to leave the Spurs; they're perennial championship contenders and they play in a city he loves. Some of that certainty takes away from the fun of the article, but it's still well worth reading, especially considering the implications for the Magic.

John Hollinger thinks Trevor Ariza will attract a lot of attention on the free-agent market next summer. With moves like this dunk over Jermaine O'Neal, it's not hard to imagine why.
Photo by Stephen M. Dowell, Orlando Sentinel

After discussing the superstars with ETOs, Hollinger moves on to discuss lesser-known players with that ability who might attract some attention. He lists Keith Bogans, then writes that the most notable player from that group is our very own Trevor Ariza, whose salary Hollinger describes as "way below market."

It's true that Ariza is underpaid; last season, he earned just $3.1 M, only the ninth-best salary on the team. If he gets the starting small forward position this season and performs well, he'll have made an even stronger case that he's worth more money than he's getting. Thus, I'd expect him to opt-out, but only so he can renegotiate his contract and raise his salary. Barring an unexpected development, the Pistons' Chauncey Billups will do the same thing this summer, and the Wizards' Gilbert Arenas has already said he will do the same thing next summer.

As a Magic fan, the possibility of Trevor opting out scares me. While it seems unlikely that he'd want to go anywhere else, the Magic are notorious for lowballing their own free agents, with the most famous example being Shaquille O'Neal. However, Otis Smith seems committed to Trevor. After re-signing him last summer, Smith had the following to say:

“We are very pleased to bring Trevor back, as he is a key part of our young core. His athleticism and explosiveness will be a great asset to our team on both ends of the floor.”

Amen, Otis. Don't let this future star soar away.

Stan's Whiteboard Provides Entire Minutes of Speculation

Ugh! The past week has been interminable, what with the worst NBA Finals in the history of history and all. Perhaps that is why I am so amused by this story on the Orlando Sentinel's website, which briefly discusses Stan Van Gundy's search for assistant coaches. The best bit of information is that Van Gundy is putting a lot of thought into finding an assistant to work specifically with Dwight Howard:

"I do think with big guys, they are a little predisposed to listen to guys who played that position," Van Gundy said. "I can teach low-post stuff, but he'd be looking at me like 'what?'"

Maybe he should ask Shaquille what his plans are.

I was more entertained by the following photo of Stan's whiteboard, which he uses to keep track of meetings with Magic players.

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

The players appear to be ordered by position, then by depth. The first four are point guards, the next three are shooting guards, and the next two are small forwards. After that, the reasoning as to the order is anyone's guess. Maybe Stan thinks of every player listed after Trevor Ariza as a power forward?

Whatever. It's a great picture because so much can be gleaned from so little:

• Darko Milicic, Hedo Turkoglu, and Travis Diener have absolutely nothing next to their names, which seems to indicate they haven't been in touch at all. I guess it's hard to contact people in the far-off lands of Serbia, Turkey, and Wisconsin.
• Keyon Dooling is lumped in with the point guards, which is great news to me because he's more effective at the point and should be given a chance to start.
• The best part about the whole whiteboard is the question mark next to Keith Bogans' name. Why is it there? Perhaps Stan is wondering, along with the rest of Magic Nation, what the hell Keith Bogans is doing on the roster.

So, when's that draft again? Oh, and we don't have any first-round picks?

Damn.

Well, if you find yourself bored during the wait for Magic news, I humbly suggest the following diversions:

• Black and Blue's blog, which has made rating Magic cheerleaders a regular Friday thing.
• HarpringSucks, a Utah Jazz-themed blog with a questionable name. The Jazz players/Star Wars characters comparison was particularly hilarious. Busting on Gordan Giricek never gets old.

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

I sincerely hope we're able to make it through the next week alive. Until then...

Warner Independent Pictures

The Case For Keeping Grant Hill

With apologies to Shawn Kemp, no superstar of the early 1990s has seen his career tail off as quickly as Grant Hill did. Whereas Kemp was done in by his hedonism, Hill was done in by his passion for basketball. He played through excruciating pain in his last season in Detroit, limping around the court in the playoffs as a mere shadow of himself. He didn't know his ankle was broken, and consequently he didn't know that he'd never again dominate a game with Oscar Robertson-like averages of 21 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists as he did in the 1996/1997 season. It's easy to forget how great Hill was, and it's even easier to dismiss him as a has-been. The Magic have played 511 combined regular-season and postseason games since Hill signed with the team. Of those, he has played in 204, or a mere 39.9%.

Grant Hill, in obvious pain, leaves the second game of the Detroit Pistons' first-round playoff series with the Miami Heat in 2000. His career would never be the same.
Photo by Angela Peterson, Orlando Sentinel

In spite of all that, I'm here today to campaign openly for the Magic to re-sign Grant Hill. It won't be an easy task: unless Hill is willing to sign for the veteran's minimum of $1.5 M, the Magic would likely have to trade someone like Keith Bogans or Carlos Arroyo to free up cap room because most -- if not all -- of it will go toward re-signing Darko Milicic and signing a perimeter scorer. The fact that other teams are interested in Hill further complicates the matter. And last Thursday, USA Today reported that Grant Hill will listen to what those other suitors will say:

With his ankle now stabilized, the 12-year veteran says he hasn't closed the door on a return to the Magic but is listening to all offers. Could a return to Detroit be in his future? "I'm keeping myself open," Hill says.

"I'm going to see what Orlando's doing but if people come knocking, I'm going to listen. I'm still trying to figure it all out."

Contrary to what detractors would have you believe, Grant Hill is still talented and well worth a roster spot. I don't buy the argument that Hill is a cancer to this team, or that he swindled us out of $93 M and set us back seven years. It is not as though Grant sat on his duff, content to receive his paycheck every two weeks. He worked hard to rehabilitate his oft-maligned left ankle, even after six surgeries. He showed a commitment to this team by not quitting when it would have been easy for him to do so.

Showing incredible dedication, Grant Hill went through the difficult process of getting himself ready to play after suffering numerous ankle injuries.

Photo by Gary Bogdon, Orlando Sentinel

No, he won't ever again post the Robertson-like averages to which I alluded earlier, but he doesn't have to do that to be effective. Last season, he was second on the team in scoring, averaging 14.4 points per game. On top of that, he shot an efficient 52.8%, good for 20th-best in the entire league. That's a remarkable percentage, especially considering that only two other guards shot better than that last season: two-time MVP Steve Nash and two-time NBA championship winner Tony Parker, both of whom are All-Stars.

Even at 34, Grant Hill can still get to the rim.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

His defense hasn't fallen off, either. He held opposing shooting guards to a Player Efficiency Rating of 14.5, which is below the league average of 15. No, he isn't a world-class defender like Shawn Marion, but he's not a sieve like Gilbert Arenas either.

But Grant's value to this team can't be measured in numbers alone. He's a leader, both in the locker room and in the community. On a team loaded with young players -- Trevor Ariza, Dwight Howard, Darko Milicic, and J.J. Redick are all under 25 years old -- the importance of a guiding presence in the locker room cannot be overstated. Tony Battie, Pat Garrity, and Bo Outlaw are all veterans, but none of them are veteran All-Stars; they don't command as much respect as Grant does.

Grant Hill doesn't have to be on the court to be an asset to his team.

Photo by Rusty Kennedy, Associated Press

Imagine this scenario: The Magic start Jameer, JJ, a free-agent small forward, Darko, and Dwight. Grant Hill comes off the bench and averages 12 points on 55% shooting in 20 minutes a game. He'd share sixth-man duties with Trevor Ariza and the Magic would at least get into the second round of the playoffs. It's not that hard to fathom; Stan Van Gundy took the Heat, who won only 42 games in the regular season, into the second round in 2003/2004.

The Magic should bring Hill back for his intangibles alone. The fact that he's still a top-100 talent in this league only makes the decision that much easier. Would I call it a slam dunk?

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

Yes, I would.

Grading the Magic, Part Three - Better Luck Next Year

We Magic fans are in a period of limbo: the Magic have been eliminated from the playoffs, yet the draft and free agency are still a month away. As such, I thought I'd now would be as good a time as ever to submit individual grades for each Magic player. I've decided to split the players into three different groups: Top of the Class, or the players who had above-average seasons; Middle of the Road, or the players who did about as well as expected; and Better Luck Next Year, or players who either underperformed or did not play frequently enough to be evaluated fairly .

Today's post concerns Better Luck Next Year. I welcome your comments and criticisms.

James Augustine, Forward				#40
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	1.0	1.5	.333	I
	"No-Name James", as I have nicknamed him, played in just 7 minutes this season. As such, I cannot give him an actual grade because to do so would be unfair. Second-round draft choices don't last long here, so I fear Augustine's career may end sooner rather than later. It's a shame too; how many 6'10" guys do you know who average a triple-double per 48 minutes?

Keith Bogans, Guard				#10
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	5.1	1.6	.404	C-
	Keith is in his second tour of duty with the Magic. His calling cards are supposedly defense and three-point shooting, but Keith failed to deliver on either of those fronts this season. He got off to a hot start, making 47.7% of his three-pointers from November to January. He then forgot how to shoot, as he made only 30.6% of his shots from downtown the rest of the season. I almost feel bad for him; he went from coming off the bench early to warming it perpetually over the course of the season. Maybe he'll break through next season, but I'd rather doubt it.

Travis Diener, Guard				#34
	Points Per Game	Assists Per Game	3-pt Field Goal %	GRADE
	3.8	1.3	.360	I
	I believe in Travis Diener. I think he's smart enough to run a half-court offense efficiently, and I think his teammates are good enough defensively to make up for his lack of size and speed. The coaching staff does not share this view, and as such, only played him in 26 games this season. Barring a quick change of heart, the Magic won't re-sign him this offseason. It's a shame because he did show signs of life this season, pouring in 16 points on five-of-six shooting against Charlotte in December.

Pat Garrity, Forward				#8
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	3-pt Field Goal %	GRADE
	2.2	1.3	.344	D
	Pat Garrity has never been a good defender or rebounder. He's made a living in this league by making three-pointers and drawing opposing power forwards away from the basket. That worked well a few years ago, but not so much this season. When called upon this season, Garrity rarely delivered, making just 34% of his three-pointers. Like Bo Outlaw, he's no longer an NBA-level talent. Unlike Bo Outlaw, there isn't anything he does well anymore, and I feel bad for him.

Jameer Nelson, Guard				#14
	Points Per Game	Assists Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	13.0	4.3	.430	C-
	Jameer Nelson was playing for a contract extension this season, but you'd never know it by looking at his performance. He shot a career-low from the field, let his three-point shooting drop nearly 10 percentage points, and tallied fewer assists per game despite increased playing time. Simply put, Nelson was indefensibly bad, and his poor showing this season raises questions as to his role with the team. I would not be surprised if he were traded for a draft pick.

Hedo Turkoglu, Forward				#15
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	13.3	4.0	.419	C-
	I wanted to give Hedo a break for this evaluation; after all, he did play through a mysterious flu-like virus that had bothered him since training camp. However, his Jameer-like dropoff in production is really inexcusable, even with the illness taken into account. Further, his streaky play makes him hard to count on. That doesn't bode well for a team in need of consistency. If he doesn't show improvement in training camp, Trevor Ariza should easily take his starting job. I'll take defense and wicked drives to the basket over sloth-like speed and streaky shooting any day.

Shine On Me: Magic 104, 76ers 87

Grant Hill has plenty to clap about. Although he didn't have a great game, one of his teammates sure did, and it could not have come at a better time for the Magic.

I'll let Dwight Howard's linescore speak for itself:
35 points, 14-15 field goals, 7-10 free throws, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals in 43 minutes.

Shaq who?

The Magic went into Philadelphia today and made a huge statement by blowing out the 76ers and ending that team's remote playoff hopes. The Magic themselves increased their lead over Indiana for the 8th playoff spot in the East to two games.

It's one thing to pick up a win after a heartbreaking loss. It's quite another to go into another team's home floor and lead wire-to-wire in a double-digit victory. For me, the most pleasing numbers in this game's box score aren't those next to Dwight's name. In fact, the numbers to which I am alluding don't come next to any player's name. No, they're the quarter-by-quarter scores. We outscored Philly in each quarter, refusing to let up even when it became apparent that they didn't have a chance.


Really, it's hard to think of anything that went wrong for us today, except for Darko Milicic's embarrassing missed dunk.

On an individual level, there was Dwight's incredible performance, which included an improbable 13-foot bank shot from the left wing. Darko scored 14, including back-to-back 19-footers from the top of the key. Even Keith Bogans played well, scoring 5 points and grabbing 3 rebounds in only 8 minutes of action, which he probably would not have seen if J.J. Redick had not been deactivated due to a sore quad muscle.

The collective numbers are also good. We shot 53% while holding the 76ers to just 39%. We scored 104 points, the fifth time in this month's six games that we've exceeded 100 -- and the exception was against Detroit, against which we scored 99. Impressively, we had 25 assists on 43 field goals, and five players recorded at least three assists. In my recap for the Pistons game, I wrote that the Magic played as individuals rather than as a team, and that proved to be their undoing. Credit Brian Hill and the rest of the coaching staff for stressing ball movement and unselfish play in practice this week.

I can only hope that today's high level of play can carry over until tomorrow's game with Boston, which has shut down Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson, its two best players, for the rest of the season. The Celtics have guaranteed the league's second-worst record and, as such, their draft lottery position is assured. In other words, they're just playing out the season and waiting for the draft. If the Magic win -- and they should, barring a letdown of colossal proportions -- and the Pacers lose their game with the Nets, we'd clinch a playoff berth. So, as counterintuitive as it seems, we actually become Net fans tomorrow; after that, we can curse them all they want, as we want to steal the 7th playoff spot from them.

Summarily, we've played better in April than our 3-3 record indicates, even considering that our 3 wins came against some dreadful teams. If we keep playing this way for the rest of the season, we'll have a great deal of confidence heading into the playoffs. In an earlier entry, I wrote that the Magic needed to make a fourth quarter surge. Well, they've done that. Now all they have to do is keep it up.

In Defense of Brian Hill

It's impossible to discuss the Magic's struggles this season without mentioning this man:


When the Magic began their downward spiral this season, fans were quick to call for the firing of head coach Brian Hill. FireBrianHill.Org was established earlier this season to unite fans against the Magic's head coach and to collect signatures for a petition calling for his removal from the organization. He was stubborn, stupid, not playing to his team's strengths, stunting the development of his younger players, etc. Even after the Magic's stunning victory against the Heat on Sunday, fans blasted Hill:

• Jameer, Howard, Turco, Ariza, and Hill are great players but the coach is not to their level. To be a leader you must have a plan and we have seen none, only wish to be lucky. I once heard that " Luck was when oportunity meets PREPAREDNESS" and the Orlando Magic have faced several oportunities, and they showed not being prepared for them. Sure, it is their coach's job, to have them ready. C'mon Brian it is about time. WE ARE FUMING...

• Half of the time Brian Hill looks lost as if he doesnt know what he's even doing. He was a good coach 12 years ago but now its time for him to move on...

I can't help but wonder why these fans are reacting to Hill in this manner. Perhaps he acted too late in the season when he changed the rotation, but I have news for unhappy Magic fans:

It's working.

Since benching Carlos Arroyo and Keith Bogans in favor of Keyon Dooling and J.J. Redick, the Magic have defeated powerhouses Utah and Miami. And although they've also lost to struggling Sacramento and injury-riddled Toronto in the same stretch, it was through no fault of Hill's.

As I documented in this blog's introductory post, the Magic lost to the Kings because they couldn't hit shots when it mattered, nor could they keep Sacramento off the foul line. Brian Hill is not out there hacking Kevin Martin on every play, ladies and gentlemen, nor is he taking the court in a Magic jersey and throwing up bricks like the rest of the team did in Toronto, where they shot just 37.3%. However, in that game, the Keyon Dooling-lead second unit keyed several runs to cut into double-digit leads. It was Orlando's starters in that contest who hurt the team the most. Hedo Turkoglu played his worst game of the season, shooting just 1-for-11 for 4 points. And although Jameer Nelson finished with a late flourish by draining two three-pointers and hitting three free throws after getting fouled on another attempt, he shot just 4-for-12 for the game for 15 points. Further, he struggled on defense, committing 5 fouls.
Although Dooling had a poor shooting game -- he was just 3-of-12 -- he was much more effective at the point than Jameer was. Dooling finished with 6 assists to just 1 turnover in 25 minutes. I have a hard time believing that Arroyo would have been able to post similar numbers.

But that's just taking a micro perspective. When examining the whole season, there isn't a whole lot that's gone wrong that can be directly attributed to Brian Hill. The Magic have suffered through injuries to Grant Hill, Tony Battie, and Trevor Ariza. Hedo Turkoglu has battled a mysterious illness all year. And at the trade deadline, with the Magic in the tailspin, it was GM Otis Smith, not Brian Hill, who decided not to make a move, content with mediocrity.

What I'm asking of Magic fans here -- and maybe it's too much, that's the problem -- is for a bit of patience. I know it's hard, especially this late in the season, especially after so many losses, and especially after the promising 13-4 start devolved, but Brian Hill's lineup adjustments are for the best and the next 13 games will show it.