Which Free-Agent Big-Men Should the Magic Pursue?

The likely departure of Darko Milicic via free-agency leaves the Magic with glaring holes at the center and power-forward positions. The team has some prospects -- James Augustine, Marcin Gortat, and Mario Kasun -- who could shore up those deficiencies, but none of them are NBA-ready yet. The Magic should have enough salary-cap room to address their frontcourt needs, so on whom should they use it? 3QC takes a look:

P.J. Brown
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	6.1	4.8	.407
	Free-Agency Status: UNRESTRICTED
	Magic fans should be well-acquainted with the 37-year-old Brown, who spent the most productive years of his career with the Miami Heat. As expected, his skills have dropped off considerably, but he scored double-figures in 19 of his 72 games last season -- not bad for an old guy. He's not a total stiff, but the Magic should think of signing someone who could play for at least two seasons. That seems to eliminate Brown, who's rumored to be mulling retirement.
Chuck Hayes
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	5.6	6.7	.573
	Free-Agency Status: RESTRICTED
	Chuck Hayes may lack height -- he's only 6'6" -- but you wouldn't know it by looking at his rebounding numbers. Like a certain other undersized Rocket power forward, Hayes uses his tenacity and will to beat out taller players to rebounds. He'd be a great boost off the bench. That said, he's a complete non-factor offensively; unless he's two feet from the basket, he's toast. Hopefully, the Magic would have enough offensive weapons to offset Hayes' deficiencies on that end of the floor. Obtaining Hayes is a pipe-dream, though. The Rockets are determined to re-sign him.
Jamaal Magloire
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	6.5	6.1	.504
	Free-Agency Status: UNRESTRICTED
	At 6'11" and 265 pounds, Jamaal Magloire is a real handful in he paint. He rebounds well, has a decent low-post game, and can play 20+ minutes a night. Magloire is still skilled, but the Trail Blazers would likely let him go, as Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge are their big-men of the future. Despite being the least-deserving All-Star in the history of the sport, Magloire would be a worthwhile pickup for the Magic.
Mikki Moore
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	9.8	5.1	.609
	Free-Agency Status: UNRESTRICTED
	Mikki Moore has bounced around this league for his entire career, playing for seven teams over nine seasons. Moore's renaissance in 2006/2007 with New Jersey did wonders for his free-agent value, as he averaged career-highs in points per game and rebounds per game. He also lead the league in field goal percentage. Much of that is due to playing with Jason Kidd, one of the greatest point guards in NBA history, whose ability to spread the floor and to make improbable passes lead to several easy buckets for every Net, but Moore especially. He can't be expected to post similar numbers this season unless he stays with the Nets, and the Magic should be wary of that fact.
Joe Smith
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	8.5	6.2	.449
	Free-Agency Status: UNRESTRICTED
	Joe Smith never quite lived up to his billing as a first-overall draft pick, and his name has been tarnished thanks to the under-the-table dealings he had with the Timberwolves, but he's actually a solid NBA player. Considered a throw-in in the Allen Iverson trade, Smith went from warming the bench in Denver to playing a key role in the 76ers' second-half resurgence; as hard as it is to believe, the 76ers were still in playoff contention during the second-to-last week of the season, largely due to Smith's consistent production. He'd fit in nicely in Orlando as a slightly better version of Tony Battie. As an added bonus, he has a career free-throw percentage of .794, which is quite good for a guy who stands 6'10" tall.
Anderson Varejao
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	6.8	6.7	.476
	Free-Agency Status: RESTRICTED
	Anderson Varejao has become one of the league's most polarizing players. Some fans love his intensity and energy, while others loathe his tendency to flop on defense. I fall into the latter category, as I believe flopping ruins the integrity of the game. But Varejao's questionable sportsmanship is not the only reason for the Magic to be wary of him. Although he's only 24, Varejao has reached his offensive ceiling and relies on putbacks to score. His flopping forces turnovers by drawing offensive fouls, but people would be clued-in as to how lousy a defender he is if it didn't. In short, he's not overly talented, nor is he likable. The Magic, and others, should avoid him.
Chris Webber
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	11.2	7.2	.452
	Free-Agency Status: UNRESTRICTED
	It'd be almost poetic for Chris Webber to sign with the Magic, the team that drafted him with the first pick in the 1993 draft, only to send him to Golden State for the rights to Penny Hardaway. He's one of the top-ten power-forwards in NBA history, but knee troubles slowed him down considerably. He was miserable in Philadelphia last season, but his play magically improved once the 76ers bought out his contract and allowed him to sign with Detroit. Like Vince Carter, Webber appears to be able to "flip the switch" on his talent and play hard only when he wants to, which should make him unattractive to us. He's also chasing a championship, and he's unlikely to win one in Orlando before he retires, which should make us unattractive to him. He's still an NBA-level talent, but I'd be disappointed to see him in Magic-blue next season.

Also available:

• Rafael Araujo, a former eighth-overall draft selection who posts robust career averages of 2.8 points per game and 2.8 rebounds per game.
• Andray Blatche, the 20-year-old project whom the Wizards are determined to re-sign.
  
• Pat Burke, the former Magic player who has spent the past two seasons making hair-restoration commercials and high-fiving the Suns' regular rotation players during timeouts.
• Melvin Ely, a career underachiever whom the Magic tried to acquire before the trade deadline last season.
• Marc Jackson, a 6'10" former rookie-of-the-year candidate who, to his detriment, fell in love with his jump shot.
• Chris Mihm, a 7'0" stiff who missed all of last season following ankle surgery.
• Dikembe Mutombo, [insert your own age joke here].
• Michael Olowokandi, arguably the worst first-overall draft pick in history.
• Jake Voskuhl, a foul machine who's never been able to play big minutes.

Slim pickings, to be sure, but the Magic have to prefer almost any of those players to the inexperienced ones already on their roster. Which of the players suggested would you prefer?

UPDATED: Free Agency is Upon Us: Is Rashard Lewis Out of Reach?

Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith can't get down on himself if free-agent Rashard Lewis suddenly becomes unavailable.
Photo by Red Huber, Orlando Sentinel

At the stroke of midnight just moments ago, the period during which NBA teams may negotiate with free agents began. In all likelihood, Otis Smith is already on the phone with Rashard Lewis, hoping to set up a meeting in Orlando in hopes of signing this summer's top free-agent prize. But it might be a tougher sell than anticipated. If there is any truth to this report, kindly pointed out by CLos over at Magic Madness, Lewis is only using us to drive up his asking price with the SuperSonics in hopes of forcing a sign-and-trade deal involving the SuperSonics and either the Mavericks or Rockets.

UPDATE: The Houston trade is no longer a rumor and a great fear now strikes me; the story showed up on ESPN.com early Sunday morning. Said Rockets GM Daryl Morey:

"We really want him. We think he would be a significant player for us. Rashard would have to be motivated to come."

Lewis played his high-school ball in Houston and could be motivated to return home.

Then there's the report to which I linked yesterday, which states that the Heat are dangling Udonis Haslem and Jason Williams' expiring contract in front of the Sonics in exchange for Lewis.

These reports, if they can be believed, seem to damper the Magic's hopes of getting Lewis, who knows the Mavericks, Rockets, and Heat are much closer to contending than the Magic are. Think of the star power already on each of those teams:

• Dallas has Dirk Nowitzki, who won the MVP award last season, and the young Josh Howard, who was a first-time All-Star selection last season.
• Houston has arguably the best inside-outside combination in the league with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. New head coach Rick Adelman is well-known for being popular with his players.
• Miami has Shaquille O'Neal, who is the most dominant center of this generation, and Dwyane Wade, who single-handedly won Miami the title in 2006.
  

Fortunately, Dallas and Houston don't have much to offer Seattle in terms of a trade. Young point guard Devin Harris is the only asset Dallas has, and he'd have to be inked to a hefty extension for the salaries to match up. Houston could put Rafer Alston, Shane Battier, and Jake Tsakilidis together, but Alston and Battier have unattractive, long-running contracts and Tsakilidis is a total stiff.

Miami is what worries me the most. Udonis Haslem is a valuable role-player in this league, and Jason Williams' hefty contract comes off the books in 2008, just in time for the Sonics to make a play in free-agency. Of course, Lewis would have to approve any sign-and-trade deal, but why wouldn't he approve one to Miami? After all, they're only one year removed from the title, and Lewis knows that he could make them a contender again in a hurry. Miami has all the benefits of Orlando -- beautiful weather, no state income taxes -- and it can contend immediately.

What seemed like a sure thing just days ago now seems far less of one. I wouldn't give up hope yet, though; those rumors may not be true and Lewis may prefer to play in Orlando after all. But after hearing this news, I suspect Otis Smith would do well to get Gerald Wallace on the line as well.

More Boring Than The Finals: An Orlando Magic Draft Recap

I don't think Magic fans expected much out of last night's draft. Hell, all I wanted was

• The Magic to draft a backup power forward, such as Marc Gasol or Herbert Hill, to eventually take over for Tony Battie.
  
• The whole event not to bore me as much as the Finals did.

I was let down on both counts.

Before the draft even began, the Magic sold one of their picks to the Houston Rockets, leaving Orlando with only the 44th overall selection. Their first-round pick belonged to Detroit as part of the Carlos Arroyo/Darko Milicic trade from February 2006, and Detroit used it on shooting guard Rodney Stuckey.

With the 44th pick, the Magic selected Reyshawn Terry from North Carolina. I'm not a college basketball fan in the slightest, but I was able to gather that Terry was a decent mid-range scorer who needed to work on his defense and maturity. Chad Ford of ESPN.com wrote that Terry was a "very good value pick". I was hoping that Terry could be brought in as a possible replacement for Grant Hill, who still hasn't decided if he wants to return to Orlando next season. He could also be used to replace Hedo Turkoglu if he is traded to clear up salary-cap room. Overall, I was moderately pleased with the Magic's selection.

The Magic selected Reyshawn Terry of North Carolina with the 44th-overall pick. However, he wasn't with the team for long.
Photo by the Associated Press

That changed when I learned this morning that Terry was traded to the Dallas Mavericks for cash and their second-round selection, Milovan Rakovic, who was taken with the last overall pick. I suppose it's nice to have the cash, but what do we need Rakovic for? He'll stay in Serbia for the next several years. We already have the rights to Fran Vazquez and Marcin Gortat, two big-men who are still playing overseas and who may not play for the Magic for several seasons. The Department of Redundancy Department strikes again.

Overall, draft night was ominous. The Magic did nothing to improve themselves, whereas two bottom-dwelling teams in the Southeast Division did: the Atlanta Hawks took Al Horford and Acie Law, both of whom figure to be NBA-ready; and the Charlotte Bobcats traded with Golden State for explosive scorer Jason Richardson. Moreover, the Miami Heat have made known their interest in Rashard Lewis, whom the Magic have at the top of their free-agent wishlist.

The division-rival Charlotte Bobcats acquired Jason Richardson from Golden State in exchange for Brandan Wright, whom Charlotte selected with the 8th pick in the draft.

Photo by Brian Bahr, Getty Images

The only team that did Orlando a favor last night was Washington, which inexplicably drafted Dominic McGuire, a small forward, despite already having Caron Butler, an All-Star, at the position. Nevermind the fact that their best center is Etan Thomas, who is a better writer than he is a basketball player.

The entire Southeast Division landscape has shifted over the course of one night. Its standings could get turned on its head next season, which would -- perhaps appropriately, given the franchise's history -- leave the Magic in third place, where they finished last season.

I hope, for our sakes, that free-agency is kind to us. Given the way our divisional opponents improved, we need it now more than ever.

Four Free Throws: Brian Hill to Return?!

This news is far from official, and I'm getting it third-hand from Four Free Throws, but if appearances are to be believed, it looks like Brian Hill will be back as the coach of the Magic next season. An excerpt:

Our sources at the RDV spotted a jolly Otis Smith walking out from the Magic offices this afternoon, and soon after a smiling Brian Hill appeared with Dwight Howard at the courts, and they joked around a bit before walking off. Suffice it to say: it did not look like B. Hill was getting fired.

I wanted to hold off on posting any Brian Hill news until something official came out, but this information was just too good for me not to pass it along.

If this news is true and Hill indeed returns, I think it'd be for the best. Rick Adelman would have been the ideal replacement for Hill because he's less controlling and plays at a more up-tempo pace. Basically, he's more suited to coach the Magic's young, athletic players than Hill is. However, since Adelman has replaced Jeff Van Gundy in Houston, and Sam Mitchell re-upped with Toronto, Hill appears to be the best coach left. Might as well have some consistency.

Excavation: Pistons 98, Magic 90

At halftime, I wrote that the Magic needed to continue applying pressure and to execute their offense effectively if they hoped to beat the Pistons. They failed to do both those things, and they lost the game by a final score of 98-90.

What is there to say at this point? Grant Hill and Hedo Turkoglu were the only starters who showed up, combining for 43 of our 90 points. Reserves and former Pistons Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo played well off the bench, but that was all that went well for the Magic.

Most disconcertingly, Dwight Howard wore an invisibility cloak tonight despite playing very well in Game 1. Even considering that he felt ill and was not at 100%, Howard had a horrible game. He registered 8 points, 11 rebounds, and about 28 glares at officials. It was clear from the onset that Howard was shaken: Rasheed Wallace blocked his first field goal attempt, then hit a long three-pointer on the ensuing possession, with Howard running out to challenge the shot. I wrote earlier that come out with a vengeance in the third quarter. That did not happen. In the period, Howard drew three fouls, dished an assist, grabbed two rebounds, and turned the ball over once. He did not attempt a field goal.


One Detroit possession sums up the sort of game the Magic had. After a Hedo Turkoglu jumper cut the Detroit lead to seven, the Magic played tough-nosed defense on the Pistons, battling through both screens and flying elbows. Richard Hamilton ended up with the ball on the right wing with just three seconds on the shot clock. Playing 'hot potato', he chucked the ball to Rasheed Wallace, who threw the ball in the general direction of the basket as the buzzer sounded. Wallace's heave banked in, bumping the Detroit lead to 10 points and essentially ending the game.

It bears noting that Jameer Nelson is having a terrible series. He's shooting 33.3%, and posting per-game averages of just 9.5 points and 3.0 assists. He's also awful defensively, giving up at least 5 inches of height to anyone he guards and having great trouble fighting through Detroit's wall-like screens. He has to play better if we are to stand a chance. I also hasten to point out that Nelson's flagrant foul on Richard Hamilton in the first quarter seemed to wake up the Pistons, who broke a 12-12 tie by scoring 7 straight points. In other words, he's better at sparking the Pistons' offense than he is at sparking the Magic's.


The odds are not in our favor, Magic fans: teams trailing a best-of-seven NBA playoff series 2-0 have come back to win just 11 of 364 possible series; that's a mere 3%. I hold out hope that we can steal at least one game, but it's really starting to look grim now.


Game 3 is Thursday night in Orlando.

POSTSCRIPT: Tracy McGrady made the following comments to TNT's Craig Sager following the Rockets' defeat of the Jazz:

This is the first time I felt like, you know, I've had a great supporting cast that can, you know, help me advance past the first round.

Ouch. I guess we know now that Tracy had given up on us long before his final season with the team. Okay, Yao Ming and Shane Battier are better players than Drew Gooden and Darrell Armstrong, but the Magic were up 3-1 in that series. Even then, he didn't think that he could get out of the first round. Thanks a lot.

Tim Povtak Serves Ben Q Rock a Piece of Humble Pie

I predicted in today's first post that Tim Povtak jinxed the Orlando Magic when he wrote that the three other teams they are battling for the last two playoff spots in the East were likely to lose this evening. I wrote that the Pacers, Nets, and Knicks would all pull upsets thanks to Povtak's deviltry. Well, two of the three games are in the books, and Povtak's predictions have held up so far: the Nuggets beat the Nets and the Mavericks beat the Knicks. The Pacers/Rockets contest is in-progress.
There are two ways to look at this situation:

• My earlier post doublejinxed Povtak's initial jinx, thus restoring balance to the universe and ensuring that his predictions held true.
• I don't know shit about basketball.

Either way, the Nets and Knicks both losing tonight is good for the Magic. I can live with being wrong if it means the good guys benefit in some way.

Tim Povtak Does Not Understand the Concept of the Jinx

If you've ever watched any sporting event on live TV, you know how the jinx works: a commentator/talking head/whatever makes a statement about a remarkable statistic or streak, only to see the unusual result happen.. Here's an example:

"Mark Price steps to the free throw line now. He's tops in the league in free throw percentage. The first shot... bounces off. So, a rare miss for Mark Price..."

Well, Tim Povtak, whose Orlando Magic/NBA coverage for the Sentinel I find to be much better than Brian Schmitz's, has jinxed the hell out of the Magic and their playoff chances. Imagine my horror when I visited the Sentinel's Magic coverage homepage to see this headline:
Idle Magic can shift back into No. 7 slot.
Even though that headline does not assert the shift as fact, it all but dooms us, at least this evening. Here's the key phrase from the article, which I've italicized in the following excerpt:

Indiana (30-35), New Jersey (31-36) and New York (30-36), the other three in the race for the seventh and eight spots, all are expected to lose tonight, playing against Western Conference teams with winning records.

The Pacers are playing the Rockets, the Nets are playing the Nuggets, and the Knicks are playing the Mavericks. Yes, I can see why Povtak would say that the teams were expected to lose. Just look at their opponents: the Rockets are coming off a 50-point victory against the 76ers; the Nuggets have won 4 straight, including a blowout of Phoenix; and the Mavericks have the best record in the league.

Here's what will happen tonight, though: Tracy McGrady's back will tighten up in pregame warmups, forcing Luther Head to start in his place. The Rockets shoot poorly and will lose a close game despite another steller performance from Yao. The Nuggets will decide not to play defense and allow the Nets to run-and-gun along with them. Jason Kidd will thrive in the wide-open style of play and drop a triple-double on the Nuggets. And the Knicks' backcourt duo of Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis will party like it's 1999 and combine for 55 points and 15 assists in shocking Dallas into its third loss in its past ten games.

Maybe I'm going out on a limb here. But now that Povtak has predicted a big standings shakeup, I can't help but to remain skeptical about it.