The Southeast Division Outlook, Part One: Atlanta Hawks

The so-called Dog Days of Summer are here, which means the NBA season is still an eternity away -- and by 'an eternity', I mean 'two months'. Free-agents have been allowed to sign with teams for over a month, and there aren't any stars left in the pool. In other words, barring trades, most NBA teams have their core group of players in place, which means it's not unreasonable to start evaluating them.

Bearing that in mind, I thought I'd review the moves the Magic and their Southeast rivals made this summer and how those moves change the complexion of the division.

The Division Outlook series will run through this week and be presented in alphabetical order by city. Today's post features the Atlanta Hawks.

Atlanta Hawks
Last season: 30-52, last in Southeast
Additions:

• Forward Al Horford (via draft)
• Guard Acie Law IV (via draft)

Losses:

• None yet.

The Hawks lucked out in the draft by getting Horford, who was voted "most ready to contribute right away" by his peers. Although the Hawks are stocked with young power-forward types (Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams), none of them have panned-out so far. Teamed with center Zaza Pachulia and small-foward/freak-of-nature Josh Smith, Horford gives the Hawks a young, talented front line that should bloom over the course of the next several seasons.

Josh Smith models the Hawks' new home jersey, which will debut this season.
Photo by Scott Cunningham

Law has the chance to start alongside All-Star two-guard Joe Johnson in the Atlanta backcourt immediately; the Hawks' other two point-guards, Speedy Claxton and Tyronn Lue, are shaky veterans who would be backups on most playoff-caliber teams. Anthony Johnson, the ten-year veteran acquired at the trade deadline, was the Hawks' best point-man last season, and he has yet to re-sign.

Overall, the Hawks are more talented than last year's team, but they aren't going to scare any divisional opponents, at least not this season. Assuming that Joe Johnson remains in good health and Smith, Horford, and Law reach their potential, the Hawks will be in contention for a bottom-four playoff spot... in two or three years. Each other Southeastern team has more depth, which means the Hawks will likely be cellar-dwellers again this season. Don't let their mediocre record fool you, though; Atlanta will be "for real" soon enough. It's one of the benefits of having a core of young players who are on the same success timetable.

End of an Era, Such as it Was: Darko Milicic, Orlando Magic Part Ways

The Orlando Sentinel's Brian Schmitz reported earlier this afternoon that the Magic have broken off contract discussions with Marc Cornstein, who represents Magic free-agent Darko Milicic. The impasse ends any chance that Milicic will re-sign with the Magic.

"We've moved on and Darko's moved on," Magic General Manager Otis Smith said.

Moved on from what, exactly? Oh yeah, the idea that Milicic would pair with franchise cornerstone Dwight Howard to form the NBA's most formidable frontcourt since Robinson/Duncan and dominate the Eastern Conference for the next decade. They showed glimpses that it could be accomplished. Consider the Magic's defeat of the Chicago Bulls on February 26th of this year: Milicic and Howard combined for 35 points, 32 rebounds, and 7 blocked shots. The Bulls, as a team, had only 31 rebounds, making the duo's totals even more impressive.

Darko Milicic and Dwight Howard will never get the chance to dominate the East side-by-side.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

Yeah, well so much for that.

I don't know what to make of Darko's time here. For every brilliant performance, like the one against Chicago to which I alluded, there was a boneheaded one, like the one against Toronto in which he played seven minutes, scored no points and was ejected after receiving his second technical foul for arguing a call made against him.



The fact that we paid a high price to acquire him only added to the frustration with his inconsistency: we gave up Kelvin Cato's valuable expiring contract and our first-round draft choice this season. The draft choice turned out to be two-guard Rodney Stuckey, who has played well in summer-league action. Along with Darko, we received point guard Carlos Arroyo.

Essentially, we Magic fans have to deal not only with our hypothetical questions, but also the fact that the team is now down a first-round draft pick in a talented draft class and $8 million -- the value of Cato's contract -- in cap space. The net return? A backup point guard whose contract will expire after one more season... at only $4 million.

If the Magic are unable to shore up the power-forward position, and/or Darko Milicic develops into an All-Star, Otis Smith is going to have a lot of explaining to do to Magic fans, who are no stranger to botched free-agency periods. But this is not the place for a discussion about Shaquille.

It's amazing how often I can run this picture and not have it lose its relevance.

When Grant Hill left, I wished him good luck; the team and the city got the chance to know him over the course of seven seasons. His reputation as a nice guy preceded him anyway. With Darko, I can't offer such wishes. It's not that I dislike him; it's just that he's as enigmatic a player as this team has ever had, and there's no telling what he wants.

And to tell you the truth, I don't think he knows either.

Reaction to the Rashard Lewis Signing from Around the Web

• There are two sides to every story, and dyed-in-the-wool Sonic fan Nuss of SuperSonicSoul offers his perspective on Rashard Lewis' time spent in Seattle in this eloquent post. Apparently, for all his talent, Lewis never really endeared himself to Sonics fans. It's a great read. Plus, where else in the sports blogosphere would you find an E.M. Forster quote?
• ESPN.com's John Hollinger offers his analysis of the Lewis signing in this Insider post, which is available for free at the moment. He concludes that although the deal doesn't make the Magic contenders instantly, it still works because it puts them on a reasonable timetable. He adds that, between the hiring of Stan the Man and the signing of Lewis, the Magic are off to the best offseason of any team in the NBA. After the Billy Donovan mess, who woulda thunk it?
  
• Henry Abbott of True Hoop points out in this post that the Sonics have, in the span of a week, lost their two best players and received "an oft-injured veteran [Wally Szczerbiak], the backup point guard from the second worst team in the league [Delonte West of the Celtics], and a draft pick [Jeff Green]." Despite all that, Abbott writes, the Sonics have a bright future. Something tells me the drafting of Kevin Durant has something to do with that.
• For more Magic-centered perspectives, I recommend reading the latest posts on OrlandoMagicFan and on Black and Blue, as well as the forums at MagicMadness.

Magic Release Summer Roster, Hope to Address Frontcourt Needs

It's been a slow news day, at least as far as free agency is concerned, but the Magic did make some news by releasing their roster for the Pepsi Pro Summer League, which runs at the RDV Sportsplex from July 9th to July 13th.

Headlining the Magic's roster is J.J. Redick, who was unable to compete in last summer's league due to injury. Redick will likely be the Magic's starting two-guard if Grant Hill does not re-sign with the team. More noteworthy, at least to me, is the presence of 6'10" power forward Milovan Rakovic on the roster. Rakovic was the last overall selection in last Thursday's draft, acquired from Dallas in exchange for the rights for Reyshawn Terry.

Like many, I certainly don't expect Rakovic to make the Magic's 15-man roster for the 2007/2008 season, but I also didn't expect that he'd even be in the United States at this point. It'll be nice to get a look at what he can do, but in all likelihood he won't play in the NBA for several seasons.

Rakovic won't be the only big-man battling for his NBA life for the Magic this summer. In fact, the Magic's summer roster is loaded with players who could see significant backup minutes at the power-forward and center positions during the regular season. Apart from Dwight Howard, Tony Battie, and Darko Milicic, the Magic have no NBA-caliber talent at power forward and center. The need for a backup is particularly apparent now, as Milicic might leave via free-agency. Former Magic second-round picks Marcin Gortat (7'0", 240 lbs) and James Augustine (6'10", 235 lbs) are on this summer's team, as is former D-League standout Anthony Fuqua (6'11", 225 lbs). And although he isn't on the summer team and hasn't played in the NBA since the 2005/2006 season, former Magic forward Mario Kasun received a qualifying offer from the team last Friday, making him a restricted free agent.

Marcin Gortat, whose favorite actor is Will Smith, may finally get the chance to prove that he belongs in the NBA.

If it seems like the Magic are scraping the bottom of the barrel for big-men, it's because they are. However, the Magic have to be happier with whichever stiff they sign from the summer team than they are with current backup power forward Pat Garrity, a veteran who saw limited minutes last season. Bo Outlaw also plays the position, but he is an unrestricted free-agent and his status with the Magic for next season is uncertain. The next-best option is Hedo Turkoglu, who is a natural small-forward and a sub-par rebounder, especially given his height of 6'10".

Hedo Turkoglu will have to improve his rebounding if he is to start at power forward, which he might be forced to do if Darko Milicic leaves via free agency.
Photo by Max Whittaker, the Associated Press

Rounding out next season's frontcourt would have been the Magic's highest priority this summer, but their dreadful offense last season made the need for perimeter scoring more pressing. Remember how freaked-out I was when Darko sprained his ankle at the end of last season and it looked like he might miss the start of the playoffs? Well, I'm well beyond that level now. Last season, the most Darko would have missed was two games. Given the way free agency is playing out, Darko might miss 82 games in 2007/2008.

The prospect of signing Rashard Lewis this summer is exciting; the prospect of watching Hedo Turkoglu trying to box out Emeka Okafor is not.

More Boring Than The Finals: An Orlando Magic Draft Recap

I don't think Magic fans expected much out of last night's draft. Hell, all I wanted was

• The Magic to draft a backup power forward, such as Marc Gasol or Herbert Hill, to eventually take over for Tony Battie.
  
• The whole event not to bore me as much as the Finals did.

I was let down on both counts.

Before the draft even began, the Magic sold one of their picks to the Houston Rockets, leaving Orlando with only the 44th overall selection. Their first-round pick belonged to Detroit as part of the Carlos Arroyo/Darko Milicic trade from February 2006, and Detroit used it on shooting guard Rodney Stuckey.

With the 44th pick, the Magic selected Reyshawn Terry from North Carolina. I'm not a college basketball fan in the slightest, but I was able to gather that Terry was a decent mid-range scorer who needed to work on his defense and maturity. Chad Ford of ESPN.com wrote that Terry was a "very good value pick". I was hoping that Terry could be brought in as a possible replacement for Grant Hill, who still hasn't decided if he wants to return to Orlando next season. He could also be used to replace Hedo Turkoglu if he is traded to clear up salary-cap room. Overall, I was moderately pleased with the Magic's selection.

The Magic selected Reyshawn Terry of North Carolina with the 44th-overall pick. However, he wasn't with the team for long.
Photo by the Associated Press

That changed when I learned this morning that Terry was traded to the Dallas Mavericks for cash and their second-round selection, Milovan Rakovic, who was taken with the last overall pick. I suppose it's nice to have the cash, but what do we need Rakovic for? He'll stay in Serbia for the next several years. We already have the rights to Fran Vazquez and Marcin Gortat, two big-men who are still playing overseas and who may not play for the Magic for several seasons. The Department of Redundancy Department strikes again.

Overall, draft night was ominous. The Magic did nothing to improve themselves, whereas two bottom-dwelling teams in the Southeast Division did: the Atlanta Hawks took Al Horford and Acie Law, both of whom figure to be NBA-ready; and the Charlotte Bobcats traded with Golden State for explosive scorer Jason Richardson. Moreover, the Miami Heat have made known their interest in Rashard Lewis, whom the Magic have at the top of their free-agent wishlist.

The division-rival Charlotte Bobcats acquired Jason Richardson from Golden State in exchange for Brandan Wright, whom Charlotte selected with the 8th pick in the draft.

Photo by Brian Bahr, Getty Images

The only team that did Orlando a favor last night was Washington, which inexplicably drafted Dominic McGuire, a small forward, despite already having Caron Butler, an All-Star, at the position. Nevermind the fact that their best center is Etan Thomas, who is a better writer than he is a basketball player.

The entire Southeast Division landscape has shifted over the course of one night. Its standings could get turned on its head next season, which would -- perhaps appropriately, given the franchise's history -- leave the Magic in third place, where they finished last season.

I hope, for our sakes, that free-agency is kind to us. Given the way our divisional opponents improved, we need it now more than ever.

The Orlando Magic Free-Agency Countdown, Part Five: Rashard Lewis

As the July 1 start of NBA's free-agency period comes closer, 3QC is taking a look at the free agents who may be able to help the Magic the most by counting down from the 5th-best option to the best option. Today's post concerns the player who should be the Magic's first choice: Rashard Lewis.

Throughout this week's countdown, I've stressed that the Magic need to sign a guy this summer who keeps the so-called "window of opportunity" open for several years. We have a young team that isn't ready to contend immediately and still needs to develop further; thus, it does us no good to sign an established, on-the-decline superstar. Vince Carter and Chauncey Billups are in their thirties, so their long-term value to the Magic is minimal. Mo Williams may be the right age, but he wouldn't generate enough buzz around the team, nor would he improve it single-handedly. Gerald Wallace fits the bill in terms of age and skills, but he's an injury risk. That leaves us Rashard Lewis, the Seattle SuperSonic and All-Star who opted out of his contract and will become an unrestricted free agent.

The Magic's Trevor Ariza and Dwight Howard used to worry about containing Rashard Lewis. If they're lucky, they'll get to play alongside him next season.
Photo by Kevin P. Casey, Associated Press

It's hard to find a negative in Lewis' game, at least as far as the Magic are concerned. Lewis would provide some much-needed scoring -- his 22.4 per-game average last season was a career-best. He also rebounds well. As a bonus, Lewis is remarkably durable; Even counting the time he missed last season with a dislocated finger, Lewis has appeared in 87% of the Sonics' games in his nine-year career. Further, he's just 27 and has improved his scoring in each of the past four seasons. Essentially, Rashard Lewis is the Magic's best bet on the free-agent market. He's young enough to produce consistently as the younger players around him develop their games, he can score, and he rarely gets injured.

Money, as always, is an issue. Lewis is believed to be seeking a deal in the $13-15 M range. If he won't settle for less, the Magic would likely have to reluctantly jettison Darko Milicic, whom they hoped to re-sign. The only scenario that would allow for both Milicic and Lewis to play in Orlando next season involves trading away a player with an average-sized contract. The player who makes the most sense in that regard is Hedo Turkoglu, who makes $5 M a season and plays Lewis' position of small forward.

Magic fans shouldn't be bowled over if Hedo Turkoglu is traded to clear salary-cap space for Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

Although Lewis clearly wants to play for a winner, it won't be easy to pry him from Seattle. Last night, the Sonics traded Ray Allen, their other All-Star, to the Boston Celtics for Jeff Green, whom they selected with the fifth overall pick, and some other players. With Allen gone, the Sonics are left with Green and Kevin Durant, whom they drafted second, to lead the team. Seattle's ownership can be pretty inept, but I don't think they would let go of two of their All-Stars in the same summer. Lewis declined a two-year, $25 M extension from the Sonics before opting out, but he might be more inclined to listen to them knowing that he would play alongside Durant and Green. Additionally, Seattle can offer him a six-year deal, whereas other teams can offer him five years. Because NBA contracts are guaranteed, an extra year makes a world of difference financially, and Lewis may indeed be enticed to stay.

The chance to share the floor with the electrifying Kevin Durant may persuade Rashard Lewis to stay with the Sonics.
Photo by Jason DeCrow, Associated Press

All that said, I think Lewis would be foolish to stay in Seattle. I mean no disrespect to the Sonics, because they're actually one of my favorite teams, but Orlando is the better destination for Lewis. The Sonics will likely relocate within the next few years, and Lewis would eventually lose playing time to Durant. Further, Lewis has never had the opportunity to play alongside a dominant center like Dwight Howard. If LeBron James can single-handedly take the Cleveland Cavaliers to the NBA Finals, how far could the inside-out combination of Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis take the Magic, especially in arguably the worst conference in North American professional sports? Another consideration: the last time the Magic had a great center/wing player combination, it was Shaquille O'Neal and Penny Hardaway, and the Magic rode that combination into the NBA Finals in 1995.

We Magic fans should hope lightning strikes twice.

Monday: Part One in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Vince Carter.
Tuesday: Part Two in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Mo Williams.
Wednesday: Part Three in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Chauncey Billups.
Yesterday: Part Four in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Gerald Wallace.
Today: Part Five in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Rashard Lewis.

Portland is the new Orlando: Thoughts on the Lottery and its Ramifications for the Magic

Earlier tonight, when NBA Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver revealed that the Portland Trail Blazers won the NBA's draft lottery, I immediately flashed back to my elementary school days in the early-to-mid 1990s, better known to Magic fans the Shaq and Penny era. Why?

With the top pick in the draft, the Trail Blazers will likely select Ohio State center Greg Oden, who many experts have touted as the next Patrick Ewing. The ESPN broadcast of the lottery this evening said as much, which means that Oden is regarded even higher than Shaquille O'Neal was.

So Oden is Portland's Shaq. Who's their Penny? Look no further than Brandon Roy, Portland's representative at the lottery and this season's Rookie of the Year, who shares Penny Hardaway's skills as a good shooter and ballhandler. It's not farfetched to imagine Oden and Roy combining to make Portland an exciting and dynamic team next season in the same manner that Shaq and Penny did so in the 1990s. You can be sure that I'll pay close attention to the Blazers as those two electrifying young players develop. It'll be like a trip through the Wayback Machine.

Sadly, this lottery means very little to today's Magic team, at least for the moment; qualifying for the playoffs eliminated the Magic from lottery contention, and their pick this season goes to Detroit as part of the Darko Milicic/Carlos Arroyo trade in 2006. Seeing as how this draft class is the deepest in many years, I'd like to see the Magic make a move to pick somewhere in the top 15. What are their options?

The possibility that immediately jumps out is trading Jameer Nelson and one of three second-round selections to the Atlanta Hawks for the 11th overall pick. While the Hawks would certainly hate to part with the 11th pick, making this trade would give them the young starting point guard they so desperately need. They also would keep the 3rd overall pick, which they could then use to draft a center or power forward, perhaps Yi Jianlian or Brandan Wright. Meanwhile, with the 11th pick, the Magic could draft a better point guard, such as Mike Conley Junior, Javaris Crittenton, or Acie Law IV. Trading a fourth-year point guard for a rookie one seems risky at first, but Conley, Crittenton, and Law each have more potential than Nelson does.

If the Hawks aren't interested in Nelson, the Philadelphia 76ers might be. Nelson played his college ball at nearby Saint Joseph's University, and the 76ers are also in need of a point guard. They acquired Andre Miller from Denver in the Allen Iverson trade, but rumor has it that Miller might be traded himself for the right price. Nelson would give the 76ers a younger, quicker point guard to play alongside franchise cornerstone Andre Iguodala. The 76ers pick 12th, so the Magic would only lose one pick if they make this deal as opposed to the Atlanta one. However, it's unlikely that Philadelphia would trade its highest first-round pick for a fourth-year point guard, so the Magic might have to include cash or future considerations to get the deal through.

The possibility of trading for a draft pick adds another item to Magic GM Otis Smith's "To-Consider" list. As if that weren't long enough already.