The Southeast Division Outlook, Part Five: Washington Wizards

Before going on with today's preview, I'd like to acknowledge that divers in Pennsylvania are searching the Delaware river for Floyd Nelson, Jameer Nelson's father, who went missing from his tugboat repair shop job yesterday. It doesn't look like much good can come of this, and my thoughts are with Jameer and his family. For what it's worth, Mr. Nelson wrote a book about Jameer, which can be purchased from Amazon.com by clicking here.

And now, the preview, sans introductory text:

Washington Wizards
Last season: 41-41, second in Southeast
Additions:

• Guard Nick Young (via draft)
• Guard Dominic McGuire (via draft)
• Center Oleksiy Pecherov (via 2005 draft)

Losses:

• Forward Jarvis Hayes (via free-agency to Detroit)

The Wizards are a tough team to figure out. When healthy, the trio of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antoine Jamison is one of the best in the league; any one of those guys is capable of scoring 40 points on any given night. Their biggest weakness was their complete lack of an interior presence; Etan Thomas just isn't cutting it.

Naturally, the solution for the Wizards' lack of a pivot-man was for them to spend their two draft picks this year on guards. When I first sat down to write this piece, I was ready to dismiss the Wizards as irrelevant, at least for the coming season. But then I looked at the Eastern standings from last season, and I was astonished at how good the Wizards are when their big three is healthy. In fact, they controlled the Southeast division for an eleven-week span, only yielding to the Heat when Arenas and Butler went down with season-ending injuries.

Washington didn't address its biggest area of need, but it also didn't lose much; only Jarvis Hayes is gone, and he was a marginal player. Essentially, the Wizards are fielding the exact same team that was a conference contender for much of last season. I expect them to maintain that position this year.

NBA Schedule Unkind to Magic

I came home from work today fully intending to write a long-winded post about the Orlando Magic's 2007/2008 schedule, but when I opened my RSS aggregator, I saw that Four Free Throws beat me to it (rated PG-13 for language). Here's an excerpt that illustrates how hard this season will be:

If those 11 away games in November aren't enough, then the fact that we play 14 of our 30 games against Western Conference opponents in the first two months should sway your opinion against the NBA's scheduling geniuses. Oh, and 9 of those games are AWAY games. Yes, that's right, almost TWO THIRDS of our away games against the western conference are in the first two months. That's brutal.

To add insult to injury, the Magic will be featured on national television exactly once: April 5th against the Cavaliers in Cleveland.

I understand that the Magic aren't a big-market team, but shouldn't the addition of Rashard Lewis to the team draw some sort of national interest? Shouldn't the opportunity to see Dwight Howard dunk all over people make people want to see the Magic? It's like we were a mediocre team last year or something.

Oh, wait.

Anyway, here is a list of ten eleven Magic games to look forward to next season:

Date	Opponent	Time	Comment
2 Nov		7:00 PM	Our first shot at revenge against the team that beat us 8 times last season.
10 Nov		7:00 PM	Fans in Orlando get their opportunity to boo Grant Hill and his Suns teammates into oblivion.
18 Nov		6:00 PM	The Garnett/Allen/Pierce trio makes its Orlando debut.
21 Nov	at	8:30 PM	We'll find out just how well the Magic measure-up to the world-champion Spurs.
24 Nov		7:00 PM	Stan Van Gundy tries to outcoach his teacher as his Magic take on divsion-rivals Miami Heat
26 Nov	at	10:00 PM	Dwight Howard vs. Greg Oden. 'Nuff said.
15 Dec		7:00 PM	The Magic's first opportunity to crush Darko Milicic's soul.
31 Dec	at	2:00 PM	We get our first crack at Chicago, one of the East's top teams.
2 Jan		7:00 PM	We ring in the New Year against New Jersey, a team against which we'll be vying for playoff position.
4 Feb		7:00 PM	The Mavericks come to town to face us as part of a five-game homestand against teams that made the playoffs last year. The season could hang in the balance.
16 April		7:00 PM	We close out the season against Washington, a tough divisional opponent. Given how evenly matched we are with them, this game could have huge playoff implications.

UPDATE: In my haste to get this entry posted, I forgot to add one important link. You can click here to purchase 2007/2008 Orlando Magic season-ticket plans. I'll let you know when individual game tickets can be purchased.

Are the Magic a Playoff Team? Discussion From Around the Web

• Unsilent Majority: "Tough break [sic] Orlando"
  
• Ballhype: The Magic are a team "Expecting to make playoffs but probably won't"
• Basketbawful: The Bucks and Magic will fight a losing battle for the final playoff spot.

(Kudos to Henry Abbott of TrueHoop for publishing this wrapup, from which the above quotes came)

Yes, the Trade To End All Trades has occurred, prompting every NBA fan with a pulse and a keyboard to make their playoff picks for next season. Nevermind the fact that the playoffs are eight-and-a-half months away.

Kevin Garnett's arrival in Boston may have knocked the Magic out of playoff contention.
Photo by Charles Krupa, the Associated Press

I should note that not all bloggers are taking a negative view of us. J.E. Skeets writes:

Who makes the playoffs? Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto, and Boston are locks. Miami, though they'll still sneak into the playoffs, won't even be the best team in Florida. Simply put: '06-07 Magic + Rashard Lewis - Brian Hill (!) = approximately 10 more wins. Yes, I think Orlando will win 50 games this year. Book it.

Brendan Sonnone of Believing in Magic also, uh, believes in us. Homerism? Perhaps. Worth reading? Yes.

So, with rare exception, most bloggers aren't giving us a chance. But ESPN's experts are a little kinder:

Does the addition of Rashard Lewis make the Magic a postseason lock?

Abbott: Like Boston, I feel the Magic need a top-flight point guard before they can be considered a reliable top Eastern team. And again, I'm feeling that barring a surprise there aren't a lot of Eastern spots up for grabs.

Hollinger: Again, not so fast. The Magic lost nearly as much as they gained between Hill, Darko and Diener, and their neighborhood just got tougher.

Stein: A lock, yes. Just because Lewis is way -- W-A-Y -- overpaid doesn't mean I don't like the idea of pairing Rashard with Dwight Howard. As long as we're only talking about finishing in the top eight, sure. Howard and Lewis aren't enough to lift Orlando to contender status, but those two get you in the playoffs in spite of some obvious holes around them.

Thorpe: Barring injury, probably yes. Especially with the new coach. They can play big or small effectively, and Dwight Howard should only keep growing as a player. Jameer Nelson is obviously a key, as is getting production from J.J. Redick. I like both to have better seasons this year.

Bucher: No lock, but I like their chances, as much because they hired Stan Van Gundy as having added Lewis to a team that squeaked into the playoffs last year. Boston is the only certifiable lottery team from last year joining the playoff mix and with the Wizards still a mixed bag and huge question marks about Miami, the Magic have as good a shot as they did last year. Which was good enough.

So they aren't singing our praises, but they aren't hanging us out to dry, either. But I get the feeling that it won't matter what we do when the season starts; we'll be disrespected no matter what. Let me explain: last year, we got off to a scorching 13-4 start, beating the Western-leading Jazz in Utah along the way. We were the toast of the league. Seriously.

Our season unraveled soon thereafter and we just squeaked into the playoffs, where we were summarily pounded by Detroit. We won a combined 10 games in December and January; to put that misery into perspective, we got our 10th overall victory three-and-a-half weeks into the season. The bottom dropped out. We were laughingstocks.

Dwight Howard couldn't have been satisfied with the way last season played out.
Photo by Gary W. Green, the Orlando Sentinel

So, even if we get off to a hot start this season, everyone will say we won't keep it up, pointing to last season as evidence. If we get off to a cold start, everyone will say we're paying the price for overpaying Rashard Lewis. And if we get off to a lukewarm start... it's still lukewarm. We won't get any respect.

All that lead me to write this entry. I'm playing the disrespect card and I'm not afraid to do so. The stuff the bloggers at the top wrote? That's bulletin-board material. We know that all too well. Remember when T-Mac said "now that we're in the second round" after going up 3-1 on the Pistons, only to lose out the rest of the way? You think that quote wasn't plastered all over the Pistons' locker room?

I don't claim to be read by anyone remotely connected with the Magic, so this entry won't motivate the team. What it should do is motivate its fans to stand and cheer, loudly and proudly, for their team. Let them talk smack about us. Let them write us off. We'll show 'em.

It worked for Golden State.

Photo by Ben Margot, the Associated Press

It can work for us.

So, what do you think? Are we a playoff team next year? I posed this question in a poll, but Blogger is goofing-up on me and it won't work, so it's stuck at the bottom of the page below my picture until further notice.

Whit Watson: Donaghy's Impact on the Magic Could Have Been Huge

Corrupt NBA referee Tim Donaghy's influence on the Magic and the Heat may have been greater than first imagined.
Photo by Haraz N. Ghanbari, the Associated Press

More information keeps coming out in the Tim Donaghy case, and Whit Watson of Sun Sports examined it with a focus on the two Florida teams: the Magic and the Heat. Watson's analysis puts into perspective just how much Donaghy could have altered the fate of a franchise. As he points out, if Donaghy affected the outcome just one of the Magic games he officiated, the Magic would be 41-41. The Washington Wizards and the New Jersey Nets had the same records, which means a series of tiebreakers would determine playoff seeding :

According to the NBA, the process for breaking a three-way tie is to first determine which team has the best regular-season record against the other two. Orlando and Washington were 2-2 against each other last season; Washington was 0-4 against the Nets, while the Magic were 2-2 against New Jersey. So it's Orlando and New Jersey atop the tiebreaker at 4-4, with the Wiz slipping behind them at 2-6.

The next tiebreaker is conference record. Since the Nets had the better Eastern Conference mark than the Magic, New Jersey keeps the 6 seed, but Orlando moves up to 7th. Again, all things being equal, that's a first-round matchup against the 2nd-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers instead of the top-seeded Detroit Pistons.

The Magic went 0-4 against Detroit in the regular season last year, and not surprisingly, got swept by the Pistons in the first round as well.

But the Cavs?

Orlando beat the eventual Eastern Conference champs in two out of three regular season meetings.

[....]

Point being, an Orlando-Cleveland series would have been competitive. A hell of a lot more competitive than the Orlando-Detroit series. The Magic would have had a shot.

What if Orlando wins that series?

[....]

There's much more at the link, and it's well worth reading. Kudos to Whit Watson for thinking all this through; it makes my take on it feeble by comparison.

For more on the Tim Donaghy scandal (Donaghygate?), I recommend these ESPN.com items:

• Stern: Donaghy only referee believed to have bet.
• Stern's Donaghy news conference transcript.

Which Free-Agent Big-Men Should the Magic Pursue?

The likely departure of Darko Milicic via free-agency leaves the Magic with glaring holes at the center and power-forward positions. The team has some prospects -- James Augustine, Marcin Gortat, and Mario Kasun -- who could shore up those deficiencies, but none of them are NBA-ready yet. The Magic should have enough salary-cap room to address their frontcourt needs, so on whom should they use it? 3QC takes a look:

P.J. Brown
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	6.1	4.8	.407
	Free-Agency Status: UNRESTRICTED
	Magic fans should be well-acquainted with the 37-year-old Brown, who spent the most productive years of his career with the Miami Heat. As expected, his skills have dropped off considerably, but he scored double-figures in 19 of his 72 games last season -- not bad for an old guy. He's not a total stiff, but the Magic should think of signing someone who could play for at least two seasons. That seems to eliminate Brown, who's rumored to be mulling retirement.
Chuck Hayes
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	5.6	6.7	.573
	Free-Agency Status: RESTRICTED
	Chuck Hayes may lack height -- he's only 6'6" -- but you wouldn't know it by looking at his rebounding numbers. Like a certain other undersized Rocket power forward, Hayes uses his tenacity and will to beat out taller players to rebounds. He'd be a great boost off the bench. That said, he's a complete non-factor offensively; unless he's two feet from the basket, he's toast. Hopefully, the Magic would have enough offensive weapons to offset Hayes' deficiencies on that end of the floor. Obtaining Hayes is a pipe-dream, though. The Rockets are determined to re-sign him.
Jamaal Magloire
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	6.5	6.1	.504
	Free-Agency Status: UNRESTRICTED
	At 6'11" and 265 pounds, Jamaal Magloire is a real handful in he paint. He rebounds well, has a decent low-post game, and can play 20+ minutes a night. Magloire is still skilled, but the Trail Blazers would likely let him go, as Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge are their big-men of the future. Despite being the least-deserving All-Star in the history of the sport, Magloire would be a worthwhile pickup for the Magic.
Mikki Moore
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	9.8	5.1	.609
	Free-Agency Status: UNRESTRICTED
	Mikki Moore has bounced around this league for his entire career, playing for seven teams over nine seasons. Moore's renaissance in 2006/2007 with New Jersey did wonders for his free-agent value, as he averaged career-highs in points per game and rebounds per game. He also lead the league in field goal percentage. Much of that is due to playing with Jason Kidd, one of the greatest point guards in NBA history, whose ability to spread the floor and to make improbable passes lead to several easy buckets for every Net, but Moore especially. He can't be expected to post similar numbers this season unless he stays with the Nets, and the Magic should be wary of that fact.
Joe Smith
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	8.5	6.2	.449
	Free-Agency Status: UNRESTRICTED
	Joe Smith never quite lived up to his billing as a first-overall draft pick, and his name has been tarnished thanks to the under-the-table dealings he had with the Timberwolves, but he's actually a solid NBA player. Considered a throw-in in the Allen Iverson trade, Smith went from warming the bench in Denver to playing a key role in the 76ers' second-half resurgence; as hard as it is to believe, the 76ers were still in playoff contention during the second-to-last week of the season, largely due to Smith's consistent production. He'd fit in nicely in Orlando as a slightly better version of Tony Battie. As an added bonus, he has a career free-throw percentage of .794, which is quite good for a guy who stands 6'10" tall.
Anderson Varejao
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	6.8	6.7	.476
	Free-Agency Status: RESTRICTED
	Anderson Varejao has become one of the league's most polarizing players. Some fans love his intensity and energy, while others loathe his tendency to flop on defense. I fall into the latter category, as I believe flopping ruins the integrity of the game. But Varejao's questionable sportsmanship is not the only reason for the Magic to be wary of him. Although he's only 24, Varejao has reached his offensive ceiling and relies on putbacks to score. His flopping forces turnovers by drawing offensive fouls, but people would be clued-in as to how lousy a defender he is if it didn't. In short, he's not overly talented, nor is he likable. The Magic, and others, should avoid him.
Chris Webber
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %
	11.2	7.2	.452
	Free-Agency Status: UNRESTRICTED
	It'd be almost poetic for Chris Webber to sign with the Magic, the team that drafted him with the first pick in the 1993 draft, only to send him to Golden State for the rights to Penny Hardaway. He's one of the top-ten power-forwards in NBA history, but knee troubles slowed him down considerably. He was miserable in Philadelphia last season, but his play magically improved once the 76ers bought out his contract and allowed him to sign with Detroit. Like Vince Carter, Webber appears to be able to "flip the switch" on his talent and play hard only when he wants to, which should make him unattractive to us. He's also chasing a championship, and he's unlikely to win one in Orlando before he retires, which should make us unattractive to him. He's still an NBA-level talent, but I'd be disappointed to see him in Magic-blue next season.

Also available:

• Rafael Araujo, a former eighth-overall draft selection who posts robust career averages of 2.8 points per game and 2.8 rebounds per game.
• Andray Blatche, the 20-year-old project whom the Wizards are determined to re-sign.
  
• Pat Burke, the former Magic player who has spent the past two seasons making hair-restoration commercials and high-fiving the Suns' regular rotation players during timeouts.
• Melvin Ely, a career underachiever whom the Magic tried to acquire before the trade deadline last season.
• Marc Jackson, a 6'10" former rookie-of-the-year candidate who, to his detriment, fell in love with his jump shot.
• Chris Mihm, a 7'0" stiff who missed all of last season following ankle surgery.
• Dikembe Mutombo, [insert your own age joke here].
• Michael Olowokandi, arguably the worst first-overall draft pick in history.
• Jake Voskuhl, a foul machine who's never been able to play big minutes.

Slim pickings, to be sure, but the Magic have to prefer almost any of those players to the inexperienced ones already on their roster. Which of the players suggested would you prefer?

More Boring Than The Finals: An Orlando Magic Draft Recap

I don't think Magic fans expected much out of last night's draft. Hell, all I wanted was

• The Magic to draft a backup power forward, such as Marc Gasol or Herbert Hill, to eventually take over for Tony Battie.
  
• The whole event not to bore me as much as the Finals did.

I was let down on both counts.

Before the draft even began, the Magic sold one of their picks to the Houston Rockets, leaving Orlando with only the 44th overall selection. Their first-round pick belonged to Detroit as part of the Carlos Arroyo/Darko Milicic trade from February 2006, and Detroit used it on shooting guard Rodney Stuckey.

With the 44th pick, the Magic selected Reyshawn Terry from North Carolina. I'm not a college basketball fan in the slightest, but I was able to gather that Terry was a decent mid-range scorer who needed to work on his defense and maturity. Chad Ford of ESPN.com wrote that Terry was a "very good value pick". I was hoping that Terry could be brought in as a possible replacement for Grant Hill, who still hasn't decided if he wants to return to Orlando next season. He could also be used to replace Hedo Turkoglu if he is traded to clear up salary-cap room. Overall, I was moderately pleased with the Magic's selection.

The Magic selected Reyshawn Terry of North Carolina with the 44th-overall pick. However, he wasn't with the team for long.
Photo by the Associated Press

That changed when I learned this morning that Terry was traded to the Dallas Mavericks for cash and their second-round selection, Milovan Rakovic, who was taken with the last overall pick. I suppose it's nice to have the cash, but what do we need Rakovic for? He'll stay in Serbia for the next several years. We already have the rights to Fran Vazquez and Marcin Gortat, two big-men who are still playing overseas and who may not play for the Magic for several seasons. The Department of Redundancy Department strikes again.

Overall, draft night was ominous. The Magic did nothing to improve themselves, whereas two bottom-dwelling teams in the Southeast Division did: the Atlanta Hawks took Al Horford and Acie Law, both of whom figure to be NBA-ready; and the Charlotte Bobcats traded with Golden State for explosive scorer Jason Richardson. Moreover, the Miami Heat have made known their interest in Rashard Lewis, whom the Magic have at the top of their free-agent wishlist.

The division-rival Charlotte Bobcats acquired Jason Richardson from Golden State in exchange for Brandan Wright, whom Charlotte selected with the 8th pick in the draft.

Photo by Brian Bahr, Getty Images

The only team that did Orlando a favor last night was Washington, which inexplicably drafted Dominic McGuire, a small forward, despite already having Caron Butler, an All-Star, at the position. Nevermind the fact that their best center is Etan Thomas, who is a better writer than he is a basketball player.

The entire Southeast Division landscape has shifted over the course of one night. Its standings could get turned on its head next season, which would -- perhaps appropriately, given the franchise's history -- leave the Magic in third place, where they finished last season.

I hope, for our sakes, that free-agency is kind to us. Given the way our divisional opponents improved, we need it now more than ever.

2008 Free Agency and its Impact on the Magic: Will Trevor Ariza Stay?

I wondered why some articles discussing this year's free agent class -- which includes All-Stars Chauncey Billups and Vince Carter as well as up-and-coming talents Mo Williams and Gerald Wallace -- described it as "weak."

Well, now I know.

This nifty rundown for Insider subscribers (which was available for free yesterday) by ESPN's John Hollinger shows that as many as 10 superstars could be on the free-agent market next summer if they a) don't sign extensions or b) exercise their Early Termination Option (ETO). The top five players listed: Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, and Shawn Marion, all of whom are All-Stars.

The Clippers' Elton Brand is just one of many All-Stars who might be free agents next summer, John Hollinger writes.
Photo by Mark Avery, Associated Press

Hollinger concedes that the possibility of all those players actually being available is slim; it's a lock, for instance, that Duncan will not exercise his ETO. Why? Well, there's no reason for him to want to leave the Spurs; they're perennial championship contenders and they play in a city he loves. Some of that certainty takes away from the fun of the article, but it's still well worth reading, especially considering the implications for the Magic.

John Hollinger thinks Trevor Ariza will attract a lot of attention on the free-agent market next summer. With moves like this dunk over Jermaine O'Neal, it's not hard to imagine why.
Photo by Stephen M. Dowell, Orlando Sentinel

After discussing the superstars with ETOs, Hollinger moves on to discuss lesser-known players with that ability who might attract some attention. He lists Keith Bogans, then writes that the most notable player from that group is our very own Trevor Ariza, whose salary Hollinger describes as "way below market."

It's true that Ariza is underpaid; last season, he earned just $3.1 M, only the ninth-best salary on the team. If he gets the starting small forward position this season and performs well, he'll have made an even stronger case that he's worth more money than he's getting. Thus, I'd expect him to opt-out, but only so he can renegotiate his contract and raise his salary. Barring an unexpected development, the Pistons' Chauncey Billups will do the same thing this summer, and the Wizards' Gilbert Arenas has already said he will do the same thing next summer.

As a Magic fan, the possibility of Trevor opting out scares me. While it seems unlikely that he'd want to go anywhere else, the Magic are notorious for lowballing their own free agents, with the most famous example being Shaquille O'Neal. However, Otis Smith seems committed to Trevor. After re-signing him last summer, Smith had the following to say:

“We are very pleased to bring Trevor back, as he is a key part of our young core. His athleticism and explosiveness will be a great asset to our team on both ends of the floor.”

Amen, Otis. Don't let this future star soar away.

Tim Povtak: Magic Should Wait for Arenas in 2008

Gilbert Arenas takes a bow at center court after scoring 60 points in a win against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Photo by the Associated Press

Tim Povtak, the Orlando Sentinel's NBA reporter, wrote in yesterday's paper that the Magic should not spend any of their salary-cap this summer so they will have enough room to attract All-Star point guard Gilbert Arenas when he becomes a free agent in 2008:

The Magic plan to pursue 27-year-old forward Rashard Lewis of Seattle, but so will 20 other teams looking to improve in a very shallow free-agent class, all willing to take drastic steps to make it happen. Lewis would help the Magic significantly next season.

Yet Gilbert Arenas could help them even more -- if they can be patient.

Arenas, 25, is the do-everything guard from Washington who will be a free agent in 2008, an all-star the past three seasons and already one of the game's finest players.

Lewis is good, but he is not close to Arenas-good.

[....]

By the summer of 2008, Arenas will be tired of playing on a team without a decent center, and beating his head against the wall with little hope of going deep in the playoffs with the Wizards.

It seems like a crazy idea; why pass on a sure shot at signing Lewis, Gerald Wallace, or Vince Carter and take a chance that we can outbid Arenas' other suitors next summer?

It gets even tricker: Arenas wrote on his NBA.com blog that he's sure he's staying in Washington; his opting out has everything to do with money and nothing to do with wanting to leave the team:

When I signed my original deal, I believed that I would become a max player so I had a player’s option. So, I make 11 and 12 million the next two years and then the extension would put me at 12.5, 13, 14 in the three years of the extension. The part that I got frustrated about the extension was that I have to play next year at that figure no matter what and then if I extend, all I’m getting is four years guaranteed. But, if I opt out after next year, I’ll have six years guaranteed because I’ll sign a whole new six year contract.

So at the end of the day, it will be a six-year deal instead of a four-year deal and instead of starting at 12.5 or 13 million, I’ll be starting at 14 or 15 million and I’ll be a max player.

This has nothing to do with me leaving or trying to look for other teams. I have to do it:

1. To get more years and
2. To increase my pay.

The risk doesn't end there. Arenas is notoriously eccentric, as documented here in a New York Times article by Chuck Klosterman. One of his quirks in particular stands out as relevant to this situation. From Gilbertology.net:

Fans began noticing his quirky antics when Gilbert said he decided between the Wizards and Clippers by flipping a coin 10 times. When the Clippers’ side came up eight times, Arenas says he knew what he had to do: go “against the odds”, although he later said he made up the story for “fun and entertainment.”

Assume that Povtak's right and Arenas indeed gets sick of not having any help down low. Would Arenas go "against the odds" -- turning down the chance of playing alongside two dominant big men and making Orlando a contender -- and stick with the Wizards? Would he throw logic out the window again and base his decision on another coin flip? There's no way to tell at this point, and that's worrisome.

Illustration by Lee Bermejo for Batman-On-Film

We Magic fans know what it's like to gamble in free-agency. We watched as the Magic signed an injured Grant Hill to a max deal seven years ago, and he's played in only 40% of the Magic's games over that span. Perhaps more infamously, we watched as the Magic lowballed Shaquille O'Neal in their bid to re-sign him eleven years ago, and he decided to bolt for the L.A. Lakers.

I've weighed the pros and cons of waiting to sign Arenas several times and I still can't come up with a conclusive answer. If we don't wait, we'll almost certainly have Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, or Gerald Wallace in a Magic uniform next season, which will give us some much-needed perimeter scoring and firepower. If we wait, we'll trot out the same team we had last season, which went 40-42 and finished 8th in a mediocre conference, and likely won't improve that standing unless Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick have breakout seasons. Can we take another year of mediocrity in hopes of landing one of the NBA's premier scorers?

I don't claim to speak for all Magic fans, which is why I'm leaving this question up to the 3QC readership.

Should the Magic save their free-agency money this summer so they can sign Gilbert Arenas next summer?
	Yes
	No
pollcode.com free polls

The future is in your hands.

Notes From Halftime of Game 1

The first half Game 1 is in the books and I'm actually a bit impressed. Perhaps it says something about the state of the franchise when trailing by 8 at halftime and shooting 30% from the foul line is considered impressive. It's a bit mind-boggling to think that we could actually be leading this game if we didn't shoot free throws so anemically.

We ended the first half on a high note, as Trevor Ariza scored a layup off a steal as time expired. But what really encourages me about this game is the play of Darko Milicic. I didn't think he'd even be available for today's game after spraining his foot against Washington earlier this week. He has 8 points on 3-of-3 shooting: one huge tomahawk slam and two jump hooks. If he keeps playing with this intensity, he'll give us another reliable scoring option.

The second half is about the get underway. Let's see if we can play with our heads on straight and steal a game from Detroit.

Brave New World

Don't look now, but the Magic closed out their season on a four-game winning streak to finish at 40-42 (.488). We played well down the stretch, which is encouraging, but this streak leaves me feeling like there's a cloud above our heads.

Why the feeling of impending doom?

The last time the Magic won five straight was from December 30th to January 12th. Not bad, right? Well, no, but what happened next was: they dropped their next six games and never really recovered. To be fair, that downward spiral began when Trevor Ariza injured his knee against Golden State, which was the last game in that winning streak. Well, not to put too fine a point on it, but Darko Milicic went down with a sprained foot against Washington two nights ago. Luckily, we managed to win both that game and last night's contest against Miami, which didn't play its stars at all. What I'm getting at is as follows: We've gone on streaks like this before, then lost a player due to injury, then spiraled out of control.


We really need Darko against Detroit. I don't know how else to say it. Power forward is a really weak spot on our team. As much as I bust on Jameer for being mediocre, at least he's young and has a capable veteran, Carlos Arroyo, backing him up. Milicic is our only true talent at power forward. Consider our other options:

• Tony Battie may start games, but he rarely finishes them. He has no offensive game and provides only marginal help on the glass.
  
• Bo Outlaw can't do anything like he used to because he's aged.
  
• Pat Garrity has lost his shooting touch and couldn't guard a chair if he had to. He also can't rebound.
  
• James Augustine is a rookie who has played in 7 minutes this entire season.

Darko's absence -- he won't be available until next week at the earliest -- is going to force Brian Hill to get creative in his rotation. He might have to play "small ball" and we saw some of it last night against Miami. At one point, Hill had both Battie and Hedo Turkoglu out of position, with Battie at center and Turkoglu at power forward. I'm all in favor of limiting Pat Garrity's minutes as much as possible. I love Pat, he's great for the community and everything, but he can't be expected to guard Rasheed Wallace or Chris Webber for any length of time. He's just too slow.

This series is really going to be a litmus test for our youngsters. Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and Trevor Ariza are all getting their first tastes of playoff action and it will be interesting to see how they react to the pressure. The core of this Detroit team has won two titles in the past five years, so they know exactly what to do. At this point, all I can ask for is that everyone plays hard and doesn't make any mistakes. If we get outplayed, fine; Detroit is a more talented team anyway. I just don't want to go down without a fight, and that means that everyone plays as hard as he can and as intelligently as he can for as long as he's in the game.

Come out swinging.

Postscript: Over/under on big shots in the series from J.J. Redick: three. Take the over. He looked very confident last night against Miami. He also knows all about playing under pressure; going to college at Duke will do that to you.

Hold On For Dear Life: Magic 88, Celtics 86

If there's a textbook definition of "backing in to the playoffs", I imagine that tonight's white-knuckle victory over Boston matches it almost exactly. After pummeling the Celtics 30-19 in the third quarter to take a 19-point lead into the fourth, the Celtics stormed back and nearly stole one from us.

Well, maybe I should check that. The Celtics didn't so much as storm back as much as we gave them an engraved invitation to beat us. We didn't hit any shots over the last 6:44 of the period, only mustering three free throws over that span. Meanwhile, we messed around with the ball so badly that it nearly cost us the game. The full play-by-play is available here, but a summary of our miscues in that stretch is shown in this chart:


If there's a better case for why the Magic need a go-to scorer, I'd like to see it. Jameer Nelson, who has made himself our top clutch option this season, committed the most actions that resulted in a Boston possession. He had an otherwise good game before melting down here, which is exactly what he needs to AVOID if he is going to carry this team for the future.


It also occurs to me that Grant Hill is conspicuous in his absence from that chart; he didn't even take a shot. As the veteran leader, you'd think that he'd be getting the ball in these tight situations. I put some of the blame for Hill's lack of usage on Jameer; after all, it's his job to GIVE TEAMMATES THE BALL when they need it. At this point, I'm about 85% sure that Carlos Arroyo should be playing more minutes. He has more experience. The entire population of Puerto Rico has been saying this for the past month.

I know I sound angry and bitter, but I assure you that I'm glad we made the playoffs. It's been entirely too long, and it'll be good for the youngsters to get some postseason experience. We're virtually locked in to the 8th seed, which means a first-round matchup with Detroit, which means a fairly early trip home. Nonetheless, It's good that we'll be playing more than 82 games this season.

What I'm most concerned about now is momentum. The bottom dropped out tonight, and I can only hope that we're able to duplicate our otherwise solid play this month. Look at it like this: we were two last-second Hedo Turkoglu blocked shots away from going into overtime with the Celtics in a game we lead by 19 points. OMINOUS.


Anyway, we visit Washington on Tuesday, which got thumped badly by Chicago earlier today, so the Wizards will certainly be pumped up for that game. We can't afford to let up now that we've clinched because there's still a chance, however slim, that we could leapfrog them in the standings and thus draw a more favorable first-round playoff opponent. So, sadly, it appears as though we've seen the last of James Augustine and Travis Diener.

Your Pretty Face Is Going to Hell: Pistons 104, Magic 99

"If we don't put ourselves in a hole against an elite team, then we would have given ourselves a better chance."

So said Brian Hill after his team's loss to the East powerhouse Detroit Pistons, who secured the conference's best record with their victory. I've defended Brian Hill in the past, but it's difficult to do so here. I'm not upset with his strategy as I am with his propensity to state the obvious. Yes, Brian, when you let one of the best teams in the league open up and 18-point lead on you, it's hard to win. Thank you for that insight.

Looking at the Magic's side of the box score, it's hard to figure how we lost. The Magic shot 50% from the field, 57% from three-point territory, outrebounded Detroit by a 37-31 margin, and committed just 10 turnovers. Those are remarkable numbers, especially when considering how abysmally we played in the first half. Here's a statistical breakdown:


Grant Hill single-handedly carried us in the first half. But his production dropped off precipitously in the second. Here's a comparison of second half statistics:


The team heated up from the field in the second half, but Grant Hill wasn't able to get involved. Couple that with dreadful free throw shooting, and the reason we lost becomes clearer: a lack of offensive balance. As illustrated in the above tables, Grant Hill took 9 shots in the first half, but just 3 in the second. Dwight Howard struggled from the field and from the foul line, but was continuously fed the ball on offense even though it was clear he was having an off night. The Magic seemed to be playing as individuals rather than as a team.



The irony of that? There's an NBA commercial in which Grant Hill voices over a video clip from last season that shows the Magic working the ball around the perimeter in a game against the Knicks. A final pass is made to an open Magic player, who makes the shot as Hill says "When we play as one, we'll beat any five." Well, the Magic didn't play as one on Wednesday night, and it showed in the result.

Perhaps no incident better illustrates that point than what took place at the end of the game. The Pistons had a two-point lead after Tayshaun Prince hit a hook shot to break a 95-95 tie. On the ensuing possession, Detroit's defense broke down and left Dwight Howard all alone under the basket. Despite his bad shooting night, Dwight aggressively called for the ball. Jameer Nelson somehow manged not to see him. Howard never got the ball; Nelson launched a terrible three-pointer that missed. Detroit gathered the rebound, and Chauncey "Mr. Big Shot" Billups put the nail in the Magic's coffin by draining a three-pointer to push Detroit's lead to 5 with :24 to play. Game over.

The loss moves our record to 36-42 and assures us our fourth straight losing season. I refuse to give up on this team, however; the playoffs are still in sight. Cleveland clobbered New Jersey last night to reduce the Nets' lead over us to one game. A strong finish to our season, coupled with a collapse by either New Jersey or Washington, should assure us a playoff berth. As long as we avoid the 8th seed, which would match us up with Detroit in the first round, we have a shot at pulling an upset and validating our existence.

The Magic enjoy a day off today before facing a gauntlet of four games in five nights. Go make The City Beautiful proud, fellas. It needs you.

Another Reason to Hate the Wizards/Philly Does Us a Phavor

Damn those Washington Wizards and their golden uniforms.


Washington somehow managed to lose to New Jersey despite holding an 89-84 lead with 1:40 to play. Thus, the Nets now have a full one-game lead on the Magic in the East standings. By virtue of having a better intra-conference record, the Nets would get the higher playoff seed if they were to finish the regular season with a record identical to Orlando's. The Magic's job doesn't get any easier, as they visit Detroit tomorrow night to face the conference-leading Pistons. Should they lose that game, any hopes they have of leapfrogging New Jersey for the 7th seed would effectively be dashed. In fact, there's a chance that the Nets may actually move up to the 6th spot, given Washington's free-fall. The Wizards are without their two best players, All-Stars Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, and have lost five straight games and eight of 10 overall. Meanwhile, the Nets are 6-4 in their past 10 and All-Stars Vince Carter and Jason Kidd are playing their best basketball of the season. On Saturday, they both managed to record triple-doubles in the same game, something that hadn't been done in 18 years.

What I'm getting at is the following: perhaps no team has frustrated the Magic this season the way the Wizards have. They've taken two of the three games between the teams so far this season, including a 112-111 decision in which the Magic had three players score 20 points and still managed to lose -- due in large part, I hasten to add, to a third quarter in which the Magic were outscored 26-19. Why was that loss so horrifying? For one, it was a close game. But more importantly, the outcome gave the Wizards the lead in the Southeast division, which Orlando had lead for much of the season.

The point at which Orlando's and Washington's lines intersect shows the teams' records at the beginning of the week in which that game took place. After that game, it appeared as though the Magic had woken up, as they went on a five-game winning streak immediately afterwards, giving them the division lead once again. After that, their season officially began to unravel, as they proceeded to lose all the ground they made up during that winning streak by dropping their next five games, one of which was an embarrassing 21-point home drubbing at the hands of the Wizards. As shown on the graph, Orlando never regained the division lead after that point.

There was some good news coming out of tonight's NBA action, however. The lowly Philadelphia 76ers defeated the unraveling Indiana Pacers to move the Pacers two games back of Orlando. While I'm certainly thankful that the 76ers gave us a slight cushion, whatever goodwill I have towards them will be eliminated on Saturday, when the Magic visit Philadelphia and hope to solidify their playoff status. Despite their poor record, the 76ers have played well lately, and finish tonight a half-game ahead of New York for the 10th-best record in the East. There is still an outside shot that Philadelphia can make the playoffs -- they are four games back with five left to play -- so they will certainly have incentive to play hard. However, budding star Andre Iguodala is battling back trouble and may have to sit out against the Magic. That bodes well for Orlando, which needs every break it can get to reach the postseason.

The message from Philly's game tonight is as follows: the postseason chase, like politics, makes for strange bedfellows. The Magic have every reason to loathe the 76ers, not only because of this Saturday's contest but also because of 6th-seeded Philadelphia's improbable 3-1 playoff victory over 3rd-seeded Orlando in 1999. Okay, that happened a long time ago; hell, Penny Hardaway was still playing for the Magic at that point. Still, grudges can be good to hold if they provide motivation, and although nobody currently on either team played in that series, the Magic should still be mindful that this Philadelphia franchise prematurely ended their last legitimate shot at a title.

Go get 'em, boys.