Orlando Sentinel: Surgery a Possibility for Tony Battie

Uh-oh.

Brian Schmitz reported earlier this afternoon that Tony Battie, arguably our best power forward, injured his shoulder a few weeks ago and may require surgery:

Orlando Magic power forward Tony Battie might have to undergo rotator cuff surgery and miss an undetermined amount of time.

Battie was undergoing testing Thursday at Duke University, and the Magic were waiting on the results.

I'm no expert, but I know that shoulder injuries take a long time to heal. The Lakers' Lamar Odom, who had a torn labrum, underwent surgery in May and is still recovering. As the Orange County Register reported, he might even miss the start of the NBA season (via Forum Blue and Gold).

Tony Battie is not a great player, but he is important to this team. Think of it this way: when Battie is on the floor for the Magic, Pat Garrity and James Augustine are taking a seat, which is a good thing.

If Battie indeed misses time, it almost ensures that Stan Van Gundy will be forced to use Rashard Lewis at power forward instead of at small forward, his natural position. Lewis doesn't have the strength or ability to defend the low post well.

A bad defensive team just got a lot worse. I wonder how Otis Smith feels about letting Darko go now.

(Thanks to Orlando Magic Blog for drawing this story to my attention).

Poll Results, New and Old

From time to time, I post a poll in the right sidebar of 3QC. In looking over some of my notes, I realized that I had taken some polls down without posting their results. With the exception of the top-most chart, which details the results of last week's question, these charts represent data collected well over a month ago. My bad.

So, in the interests of completeness and of full disclosure, here are the results, along with links to the entries to which they correspond:

Who do you want the Magic to sign as their 15th man?

• Kevin Kruger, 10 votes
• Torrell Martin, 5 votes
• Bo Outlaw, 2 votes
• Somebody else, 0 votes

Was signing Adonal Foyle a good move?

• Yes, 8 votes
• Kinda, 6 votes
• Are you kidding? 0 votes
• What's an Adonal? 1 vote

Would you trade Keyon Dooling and Pat Garrity to Denver for Reggie Evans and J.R. Smith?

• Absolutely, 9 votes
• Probably, 1 vote
• I don't know, 3 votes
• Probably not, 1 vote
• Absolutely not, 0 votes

Sentinel: Magic invite Outlaw, Kruger, and Martin to Training Camp

Tim Povtak reported in this morning's Orlando Sentinel that Bo Outlaw, who was told earlier this summer that he didn't fit into the Magic's future plans, will join the team in training camp and will have a chance to compete for the team's fifteenth and final roster spot. Said GM Otis Smith, "It's just hard to say no to Bo." I just wish someone had shouted "No, Bo!" before Andrea Bargnani went and did this to him last season:



Joining Bo as non-roster invitees will be point guard Kevin Kruger and shooting guard Torrell Martin. Those two players averaged 8.8 points per game and 3.2 points per game, respectively, on the Magic's summer-league team. Complete statistics for that team can be downloaded in a PDF file by clicking here.

Given the Magic's cache of average-at-best big-men (Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle, Pat Garrity, James Augustine, Marcin Gortat), I think Outlaw's chances of making the team are slim. Of all the players, I think Kruger has the best odds. Sure, he'd be a third-string point guard, but his presence would allow the Magic to unload the expiring contracts of either Carlos Arroyo or Keyon Dooling in a trade. Torrell Martin has to be all but ruled-out; the Magic are thin at shooting guard, but not thin enough to warrant taking a flyer on him.

We'll see shortly how it all shakes out; camp begins on September 26th.

UPDATED - Who's Under Contract: A Tentative 2007/2008 Orlando Magic Roster

The following is a list of players the Magic have under contract for at least the 2007/2008 season. It will be updated as the summer progresses. The timestamp will be changed with each update, which will move the post back to the top of the page.

	No.	Player	Pos.	Contract Expires
	1	Trevor Ariza	SF	2008/2009 1
	30	Carlos Arroyo	PG	2007/2008
	40	James Augustine	PF	2007/2008
	4	Tony Battie	PF	2009/2010
	10	Keith Bogans	SG	2008/2009
	5	Keyon Dooling	PG	2007/2008
	31	Adonal Foyle	PF	2008/2009
	8	Pat Garrity	PF	2007/2008
	13	Marcin Gortat	C	2008/2009
	12	Dwight Howard	C	2013/20142
	9	Rashard Lewis	SF	2012/20133
	14	Jameer Nelson	PG	2007/20084
	7	J.J. Redick	SG	2009/20105
	15	Hedo Turkoglu	SF	2009/20106
--	--	Empty roster spot 1	--	--

Notes:
¹: Can opt-out at the end of the 2007/2008 season.
²: Signed five-year, $85.9 million contract extension, which will come into effect following the 2007/2008 season.
³: Signed six-year, $127.2 million contract with Seattle, then was traded to Magic.
⁴: Agent and team in negotiations for contract extension.
⁵: 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons are team options.
⁶: Can opt-out at the end of the 2008/2009 season.

Carlos Arroyo Shows Masonry Skills as Mexico Upsets Puerto Rico

Carlos Arroyo, who played a key role on the Puerto Rico team that beat the U.S. in the 2004 Olympics, was not at his best tonight against Mexico.
Photo by the Associated Press

If the Magic want to have their new arena built on-schedule, they might consider asking Carlos Arroyo to lend a hand. His brick-laying skills might come in handy.

Playing for Puerto Rico in the FIBA Tournament of the Americas, the Magic's backup point guard shot 0-for-10 from the field and scored four points as Mexico pulled off the upset.

I graded Carlos highly at the end of last season, and he typically plays well in international competition, so I was surprised to see just how awful he was tonight. If the game is rebroadcast, I might have to watch it. And if this game is any indication of Carlos' skills deteriorating, he may join Pat Garrity and Keith Bogans as one of the Magic's designated Gatorade-holders.

Of course, he might have just had a bad game and it's just an anomaly. But when you're as starved for Magic-related news as I am, you have to play up everything.

The Tournament of the Americas serves as a qualifier for the 2008 Olympics. The U.S. team, which features Dwight Howard on its roster, tips off its first game at 11:00 PM against Venezuela. My DVR, however, says the game doesn't start until 1:00 AM. Go figure.

Today, Magic Get Foyle; Tomorrow, Magic Fans Can Get Tickets

It's been so slow around the NBA that the news of Samuel Dalembert obtaining Canadian citizenship made the front-page of ESPN's NBA page last week. The Magic news has also slowed down a bit now that the Dooling/Garrity for Smith/Evans trade talk has died. Black and Blue has seen "insiders" post that the team will sign Adonal Foyle, but that hasn't been reported anywhere yet. That didn't stop Brendan over at Believing in Magic from posting his take on Foyle's potential signing and its impact on the rotation.

...would you look at that? As I was writing this post, word leaked that the Magic had agreed to terms with Adonal Foyle. Thanks to Black and Blue for the heads-up and to the Orlando Sentinel for getting the story.

Today, there is actual more news to report: Ticketmaster alerted me that single-game tickets for the Magic's upcoming 2007/2008 NBA season will go on-sale tomorrow at 10:00 AM. You can click here to browse the schedule and here to browse special multi-game ticket packages. Previously, only season-ticket packages were available to the public. As a Magic Insider, I was able to purchase the 10-game weekend package last week. Which games are you most looking forward to seeing? Let's discuss it in the comments.

On the whole, it hasn't been a bad day for the Magic. They shored up their frontcourt rotation and let their fans know that tickets will be available soon. Life is good. We'll see how it works out in October.

Redick Scores 30 in Summer-League Debut; Magic Beat Nets 85-74

NEWSFLASH: J.J. Redick can score.

Unable to compete in last year's Pepsi Pro Summer League due to injury, the Magic's second-year guard made up for lost time by scoring 30 points on 7-of-18 shooting from the field, including 4-of-6 from three-point range. His team came away with the victory, as the Orlando Magic held off the New Jersey Nets by a final margin of 85-74.

I'll say this about J.J.: I had him all wrong. I figured him to be fairly one-dimensional on offense. It's true that he relies upon the three-point shot, but he also drives to the basket quicker and harder than one might think. Most of his three-pointers tonight were set up by screens on the low-block, which J.J. would curl around before catching the pass and shooting. The skeptic in me points out that those shots are easier to make in summer-league play because they are not defended as well, but the realist in me counters that the basket is the same height in the regular-season and that the screens will be coming from Dwight Howard and Tony Battie rather than non-roster invitees. A promising offensive display from the Magic's two-guard of the future, to be sure.

But Redick was not the only Magic player who impressed: Marcin Gortat, a second-round draft choice in 2005 who has spent the past few seasons in Poland, posted 10 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists; James Augustine, the Magic's second-round draft choice in 2006, added 11 points and 5 rebounds; Kevin Kruger, an undrafted point guard out of UNLV, filled up the stat line with 11 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal; and Steven Smith made a strong case for his inclusion on the Magic's 15-man roster with 13 points on 6-of-11 shooting.

Marcin Gortat played well for the Magic in the first of five summer-league games. The seven-foot center lead all players with 6 assists to go along with 10 points and 12 rebounds.
Photo by John Raoux, the Associated Press

There were some rough patches, however. The Magic's defense, and Marcin Gortat in particular, was sometimes late in rotating, leading to open Nets shots. The Magic also turned the ball over 22 times, which can be expected of a team composed of mostly strangers. The team should be worried, though, if its players are still committing turnovers at that rate as this week's games progress.

Of the non-roster players who made an impact tonight, I'd say Kevin Kruger was the strongest. We already have three point guards -- Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling, and Jameer Nelson -- under contract for next year, and that doesn't even include free-agent Travis Diener. However, Arroyo and Dooling are mentioned as pieces of a sign-and-trade deal that would send them and Pat Garrity to Seattle for Rashard Lewis and Earl Watson. Diener's potential departure would leave the Magic with only Nelson and Watson to bring the ball up. Kruger would fit in nicely as the third point guard. He had three assists tonight, and made plenty more great passes that didn't lead to buckets. He also has three-point range. The Magic should keep their eye on him, especially if they are still in discussions to make that trade with Seattle.

The Magic take the floor again tomorrow to face the Indiana Pacers. The game will start approximately 20 minutes after the completion of the Heat/Nets contest, which starts at 3:00 PM. Each game in this week's League is streamed live and free of charge on this page of the Magic's website.

Magic Release Summer Roster, Hope to Address Frontcourt Needs

It's been a slow news day, at least as far as free agency is concerned, but the Magic did make some news by releasing their roster for the Pepsi Pro Summer League, which runs at the RDV Sportsplex from July 9th to July 13th.

Headlining the Magic's roster is J.J. Redick, who was unable to compete in last summer's league due to injury. Redick will likely be the Magic's starting two-guard if Grant Hill does not re-sign with the team. More noteworthy, at least to me, is the presence of 6'10" power forward Milovan Rakovic on the roster. Rakovic was the last overall selection in last Thursday's draft, acquired from Dallas in exchange for the rights for Reyshawn Terry.

Like many, I certainly don't expect Rakovic to make the Magic's 15-man roster for the 2007/2008 season, but I also didn't expect that he'd even be in the United States at this point. It'll be nice to get a look at what he can do, but in all likelihood he won't play in the NBA for several seasons.

Rakovic won't be the only big-man battling for his NBA life for the Magic this summer. In fact, the Magic's summer roster is loaded with players who could see significant backup minutes at the power-forward and center positions during the regular season. Apart from Dwight Howard, Tony Battie, and Darko Milicic, the Magic have no NBA-caliber talent at power forward and center. The need for a backup is particularly apparent now, as Milicic might leave via free-agency. Former Magic second-round picks Marcin Gortat (7'0", 240 lbs) and James Augustine (6'10", 235 lbs) are on this summer's team, as is former D-League standout Anthony Fuqua (6'11", 225 lbs). And although he isn't on the summer team and hasn't played in the NBA since the 2005/2006 season, former Magic forward Mario Kasun received a qualifying offer from the team last Friday, making him a restricted free agent.

Marcin Gortat, whose favorite actor is Will Smith, may finally get the chance to prove that he belongs in the NBA.

If it seems like the Magic are scraping the bottom of the barrel for big-men, it's because they are. However, the Magic have to be happier with whichever stiff they sign from the summer team than they are with current backup power forward Pat Garrity, a veteran who saw limited minutes last season. Bo Outlaw also plays the position, but he is an unrestricted free-agent and his status with the Magic for next season is uncertain. The next-best option is Hedo Turkoglu, who is a natural small-forward and a sub-par rebounder, especially given his height of 6'10".

Hedo Turkoglu will have to improve his rebounding if he is to start at power forward, which he might be forced to do if Darko Milicic leaves via free agency.
Photo by Max Whittaker, the Associated Press

Rounding out next season's frontcourt would have been the Magic's highest priority this summer, but their dreadful offense last season made the need for perimeter scoring more pressing. Remember how freaked-out I was when Darko sprained his ankle at the end of last season and it looked like he might miss the start of the playoffs? Well, I'm well beyond that level now. Last season, the most Darko would have missed was two games. Given the way free agency is playing out, Darko might miss 82 games in 2007/2008.

The prospect of signing Rashard Lewis this summer is exciting; the prospect of watching Hedo Turkoglu trying to box out Emeka Okafor is not.

Garrity Exercises Player Option and Dwight Gets Richer

The Magic's website reported yesterday that Pat Garrity has exercised his player option and will play for the Magic next season. It will be his ninth year in the franchise.

Pat Garrity attempts a shot over Emeka Okafor of the Charlotte Bobcats. Magic fans don't need game footage to be able to accurately guess the result of this play.

Photo by Chuck Burton, the Associated Press

This news shouldn't surprise anyone. Garrity is no longer an NBA-level talent, and he knows it. He won't ever again get the opportunity to earn such a ridiculous salary, so exercising his option adds another $3 M to his bank account and gives him another year to mull post-basketball career choices. Considering his tenure with the team, and his overall likability, I imagine he'll at least be offered a community relations position like the one Nick Anderson has now.

I hate to report old news, but the Sentinel didn't have anything about it in its write-up about Keyon Dooling yesterday. Earlier today, Sentinel writer Tim Povtak incorrectly reported Dwight Howard's draft year, engendering a wave of mean-spirited comments in the article's feedback section. In case you're wondering, the article reports that Dwight Howard fits big into the Magic's future plans (SHOCKING!) and will eventually command 25% of the team's total salary. If that doesn't boggle the mind enough, consider this: the average salary on his five-year, $85 M extension is $16.94 M, which Povtak reports is the highest in franchise history. Keep in mind that all-stars Shaquille O'Neal, Penny Hardaway, Tracy McGrady, and Grant Hill have all played here and Dwight's big payday seems that much bigger. Wow.

What a slow news week its been. I'm sure everything'll heat up next week, as free agency begins just a week from Sunday. Rumors will be flying and I'll be here to humbly offer my take on them. Stay tuned.

The Case For Keeping Grant Hill

With apologies to Shawn Kemp, no superstar of the early 1990s has seen his career tail off as quickly as Grant Hill did. Whereas Kemp was done in by his hedonism, Hill was done in by his passion for basketball. He played through excruciating pain in his last season in Detroit, limping around the court in the playoffs as a mere shadow of himself. He didn't know his ankle was broken, and consequently he didn't know that he'd never again dominate a game with Oscar Robertson-like averages of 21 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists as he did in the 1996/1997 season. It's easy to forget how great Hill was, and it's even easier to dismiss him as a has-been. The Magic have played 511 combined regular-season and postseason games since Hill signed with the team. Of those, he has played in 204, or a mere 39.9%.

Grant Hill, in obvious pain, leaves the second game of the Detroit Pistons' first-round playoff series with the Miami Heat in 2000. His career would never be the same.
Photo by Angela Peterson, Orlando Sentinel

In spite of all that, I'm here today to campaign openly for the Magic to re-sign Grant Hill. It won't be an easy task: unless Hill is willing to sign for the veteran's minimum of $1.5 M, the Magic would likely have to trade someone like Keith Bogans or Carlos Arroyo to free up cap room because most -- if not all -- of it will go toward re-signing Darko Milicic and signing a perimeter scorer. The fact that other teams are interested in Hill further complicates the matter. And last Thursday, USA Today reported that Grant Hill will listen to what those other suitors will say:

With his ankle now stabilized, the 12-year veteran says he hasn't closed the door on a return to the Magic but is listening to all offers. Could a return to Detroit be in his future? "I'm keeping myself open," Hill says.

"I'm going to see what Orlando's doing but if people come knocking, I'm going to listen. I'm still trying to figure it all out."

Contrary to what detractors would have you believe, Grant Hill is still talented and well worth a roster spot. I don't buy the argument that Hill is a cancer to this team, or that he swindled us out of $93 M and set us back seven years. It is not as though Grant sat on his duff, content to receive his paycheck every two weeks. He worked hard to rehabilitate his oft-maligned left ankle, even after six surgeries. He showed a commitment to this team by not quitting when it would have been easy for him to do so.

Showing incredible dedication, Grant Hill went through the difficult process of getting himself ready to play after suffering numerous ankle injuries.

Photo by Gary Bogdon, Orlando Sentinel

No, he won't ever again post the Robertson-like averages to which I alluded earlier, but he doesn't have to do that to be effective. Last season, he was second on the team in scoring, averaging 14.4 points per game. On top of that, he shot an efficient 52.8%, good for 20th-best in the entire league. That's a remarkable percentage, especially considering that only two other guards shot better than that last season: two-time MVP Steve Nash and two-time NBA championship winner Tony Parker, both of whom are All-Stars.

Even at 34, Grant Hill can still get to the rim.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

His defense hasn't fallen off, either. He held opposing shooting guards to a Player Efficiency Rating of 14.5, which is below the league average of 15. No, he isn't a world-class defender like Shawn Marion, but he's not a sieve like Gilbert Arenas either.

But Grant's value to this team can't be measured in numbers alone. He's a leader, both in the locker room and in the community. On a team loaded with young players -- Trevor Ariza, Dwight Howard, Darko Milicic, and J.J. Redick are all under 25 years old -- the importance of a guiding presence in the locker room cannot be overstated. Tony Battie, Pat Garrity, and Bo Outlaw are all veterans, but none of them are veteran All-Stars; they don't command as much respect as Grant does.

Grant Hill doesn't have to be on the court to be an asset to his team.

Photo by Rusty Kennedy, Associated Press

Imagine this scenario: The Magic start Jameer, JJ, a free-agent small forward, Darko, and Dwight. Grant Hill comes off the bench and averages 12 points on 55% shooting in 20 minutes a game. He'd share sixth-man duties with Trevor Ariza and the Magic would at least get into the second round of the playoffs. It's not that hard to fathom; Stan Van Gundy took the Heat, who won only 42 games in the regular season, into the second round in 2003/2004.

The Magic should bring Hill back for his intangibles alone. The fact that he's still a top-100 talent in this league only makes the decision that much easier. Would I call it a slam dunk?

Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

Yes, I would.

Grading the Magic, Part Three - Better Luck Next Year

We Magic fans are in a period of limbo: the Magic have been eliminated from the playoffs, yet the draft and free agency are still a month away. As such, I thought I'd now would be as good a time as ever to submit individual grades for each Magic player. I've decided to split the players into three different groups: Top of the Class, or the players who had above-average seasons; Middle of the Road, or the players who did about as well as expected; and Better Luck Next Year, or players who either underperformed or did not play frequently enough to be evaluated fairly .

Today's post concerns Better Luck Next Year. I welcome your comments and criticisms.

James Augustine, Forward				#40
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	1.0	1.5	.333	I
	"No-Name James", as I have nicknamed him, played in just 7 minutes this season. As such, I cannot give him an actual grade because to do so would be unfair. Second-round draft choices don't last long here, so I fear Augustine's career may end sooner rather than later. It's a shame too; how many 6'10" guys do you know who average a triple-double per 48 minutes?

Keith Bogans, Guard				#10
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	5.1	1.6	.404	C-
	Keith is in his second tour of duty with the Magic. His calling cards are supposedly defense and three-point shooting, but Keith failed to deliver on either of those fronts this season. He got off to a hot start, making 47.7% of his three-pointers from November to January. He then forgot how to shoot, as he made only 30.6% of his shots from downtown the rest of the season. I almost feel bad for him; he went from coming off the bench early to warming it perpetually over the course of the season. Maybe he'll break through next season, but I'd rather doubt it.

Travis Diener, Guard				#34
	Points Per Game	Assists Per Game	3-pt Field Goal %	GRADE
	3.8	1.3	.360	I
	I believe in Travis Diener. I think he's smart enough to run a half-court offense efficiently, and I think his teammates are good enough defensively to make up for his lack of size and speed. The coaching staff does not share this view, and as such, only played him in 26 games this season. Barring a quick change of heart, the Magic won't re-sign him this offseason. It's a shame because he did show signs of life this season, pouring in 16 points on five-of-six shooting against Charlotte in December.

Pat Garrity, Forward				#8
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	3-pt Field Goal %	GRADE
	2.2	1.3	.344	D
	Pat Garrity has never been a good defender or rebounder. He's made a living in this league by making three-pointers and drawing opposing power forwards away from the basket. That worked well a few years ago, but not so much this season. When called upon this season, Garrity rarely delivered, making just 34% of his three-pointers. Like Bo Outlaw, he's no longer an NBA-level talent. Unlike Bo Outlaw, there isn't anything he does well anymore, and I feel bad for him.

Jameer Nelson, Guard				#14
	Points Per Game	Assists Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	13.0	4.3	.430	C-
	Jameer Nelson was playing for a contract extension this season, but you'd never know it by looking at his performance. He shot a career-low from the field, let his three-point shooting drop nearly 10 percentage points, and tallied fewer assists per game despite increased playing time. Simply put, Nelson was indefensibly bad, and his poor showing this season raises questions as to his role with the team. I would not be surprised if he were traded for a draft pick.

Hedo Turkoglu, Forward				#15
	Points Per Game	Rebounds Per Game	Field Goal %	GRADE
	13.3	4.0	.419	C-
	I wanted to give Hedo a break for this evaluation; after all, he did play through a mysterious flu-like virus that had bothered him since training camp. However, his Jameer-like dropoff in production is really inexcusable, even with the illness taken into account. Further, his streaky play makes him hard to count on. That doesn't bode well for a team in need of consistency. If he doesn't show improvement in training camp, Trevor Ariza should easily take his starting job. I'll take defense and wicked drives to the basket over sloth-like speed and streaky shooting any day.

Brave New World

Don't look now, but the Magic closed out their season on a four-game winning streak to finish at 40-42 (.488). We played well down the stretch, which is encouraging, but this streak leaves me feeling like there's a cloud above our heads.

Why the feeling of impending doom?

The last time the Magic won five straight was from December 30th to January 12th. Not bad, right? Well, no, but what happened next was: they dropped their next six games and never really recovered. To be fair, that downward spiral began when Trevor Ariza injured his knee against Golden State, which was the last game in that winning streak. Well, not to put too fine a point on it, but Darko Milicic went down with a sprained foot against Washington two nights ago. Luckily, we managed to win both that game and last night's contest against Miami, which didn't play its stars at all. What I'm getting at is as follows: We've gone on streaks like this before, then lost a player due to injury, then spiraled out of control.


We really need Darko against Detroit. I don't know how else to say it. Power forward is a really weak spot on our team. As much as I bust on Jameer for being mediocre, at least he's young and has a capable veteran, Carlos Arroyo, backing him up. Milicic is our only true talent at power forward. Consider our other options:

• Tony Battie may start games, but he rarely finishes them. He has no offensive game and provides only marginal help on the glass.
  
• Bo Outlaw can't do anything like he used to because he's aged.
  
• Pat Garrity has lost his shooting touch and couldn't guard a chair if he had to. He also can't rebound.
  
• James Augustine is a rookie who has played in 7 minutes this entire season.

Darko's absence -- he won't be available until next week at the earliest -- is going to force Brian Hill to get creative in his rotation. He might have to play "small ball" and we saw some of it last night against Miami. At one point, Hill had both Battie and Hedo Turkoglu out of position, with Battie at center and Turkoglu at power forward. I'm all in favor of limiting Pat Garrity's minutes as much as possible. I love Pat, he's great for the community and everything, but he can't be expected to guard Rasheed Wallace or Chris Webber for any length of time. He's just too slow.

This series is really going to be a litmus test for our youngsters. Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and Trevor Ariza are all getting their first tastes of playoff action and it will be interesting to see how they react to the pressure. The core of this Detroit team has won two titles in the past five years, so they know exactly what to do. At this point, all I can ask for is that everyone plays hard and doesn't make any mistakes. If we get outplayed, fine; Detroit is a more talented team anyway. I just don't want to go down without a fight, and that means that everyone plays as hard as he can and as intelligently as he can for as long as he's in the game.

Come out swinging.

Postscript: Over/under on big shots in the series from J.J. Redick: three. Take the over. He looked very confident last night against Miami. He also knows all about playing under pressure; going to college at Duke will do that to you.

The Art of Divination

The season may not be over, but already rumors are swirling about the Magic's future, particularly as it pertains to the point guard position. Here's the two pieces of information I found to be most interesting:

• According to Brian Schmitz, Magic free-agent-to-be Travis Diener doesn't think he fits in with the team's long-term plans.
• According to Tim Povtak, former Magic player and current Memphis Grizzly Chucky Atkins, also a free-agent-to-be, wouldn't mind returning to Orlando this offseason.

Well, you might as well put it on the board, right? Diener wants a chance to play and Atkins wants to finish his career where he grew up -- he used to play for Evans High in Orlando. I think it's a near certainty that the Magic will let Diener go -- heck, they offered him to Charlotte for Melvin Ely a few months ago -- and the odds are great that the Magic will at least consider signing Atkins. But would that be a wise move? To check, I decided to examine the numbers.
I took each player's season totals and adjusted them equal to 40 minutes of playing time so a fair comparison could be made. Because it appears as though Jameer Nelson is, for better or for worse, the Magic's starting point guard of the future, it's unlikely that either player would see 40 minutes of action in an actual game, but I digress. The numbers favor Atkins, but the only statistical category in which he completely outperforms Diener is scoring. Although the Magic have had trouble scoring this season, they can look to one of the big-name free agents this summer -- Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, and Gerald Wallace among them -- to fix that area of their game. Further, when Atkins' age and proneness to injury are taken into account, the two players are essentially equal.

For me, the key category is assists per turnover. The Magic commit the second-highest amount of turnovers per game while averaging the second-fewest amount of assists. Diener would figure to improve both those categories. Further, Diener is a better shooter than his field goal percentage indicates. Adjusted field goal percentage is a more precise measurement of how well a player is shooting. ESPN explains it this way:

ADJ FG% measures shooting efficiency by taking into account the total points a player produces through his field goal attempts. The intention of this adjustment is largely to evaluate the impact of three-point shooting. For ex: If Shaquille O'Neal has 3-5 FG, all two-point shots for 6 points, then his ADJ FG% = [(6/5)]/2 = .600. Meanwhile, if Ray Allen is 2-5 FG, but his 2 FGM are both three-pointers for 6 points, then his ADJ FG% = [(6/5)]/2 = .600

Thus, Diener is actually the better shooter of the two players. Skeptics might mention that the Orlando doesn't need help in that department because it's 4th in the league in field goal percentage, but that's a lame argument; how can I guy who effectively shoots better than 50% possibly hurt a team if he takes care of the basketball? Okay, Diener is undersized and lacks quickness, making him a defensive liability. So what? Atkins is essentially the same size as Diener is, and he's much older. Plus, the Magic have Dwight Howard guarding the lane on defense; if a Diener, Atkins, or whoever plays the point lets the guy they're supposed to be guarding blow by them, Howard will be in the lane to block the shot, or at least to alter it.

Don't get me wrong, though. I like Chucky Atkins. I attended a few games during the 1999/2000 season when he was with the Magic and admired his effort. However, the Magic have a long-term need at point guard, and Atkins isn't the answer. I'd hate to see his career devolve the way Bo Outlaw's or Pat Garrity's did; those two once-proud players are now essentially being paid to be nice in the locker room and mentor the Magic's young core of players. Chucky deserves better.


My point is this: Travis Diener can be of use to the Magic as a third point guard who can one day become the backup or even start in spot duty. Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling, although they are not much older than Diener, are not the long-term answer at the position. Diener will be a restricted free agent this summer, meaning the Magic have the right to match any offer another team makes. They'd be wise to do so.

Get Us Some Yellow Five: Magic 90, Nets 82

It's not in my nature to doubt myself -- yes, I am that cocky -- but after last night's game, in which the Orlando Magic pulled even in the third and pulled away in the fourth, I'm thinking I should change this blog's name to 'Fourth Quarter Surge'.
Okay, maybe I'm getting a little crazy; after all, the Magic are still under .500 and their victory came against the Nets, arguably the most disappointing team in the Association this year.

The game wasn't pretty by any measure. The Nets couldn't seem to hit any shot from anywhere on the court: 34.5% from the field, 34.8% from three-point range, and a Magic-like 64% from the free throw line. The Magic fared better shooting the ball, but nearly negated any good that did them by committing 17 turnovers. In short, this game was emblematic of the Magic's entire season: solid defense making up for a sloppy offensive effort.

Speaking of offensive stagnation, I think Brian Hill still has a few kinks to work out. The Magic shot a mediocre 42.3% from the field, but that I can live with. What's troubling to me is Dwight Howard's complete lack of offensive involvement. He took just six shots on the night. He was clearly frustrated by the Nets' constant double-teams, but there's going to come a point when the Magic will need to feed him the ball to create offense. Jameer Nelson came up for the team when it counted, scoring 12 of his 22 points in the final period, but he played his typical inefficient game, shooting just 8-for-19 from the field. Further, no one else scored more than 12 for the Magic. Scoring 90 and beating the Nets is one thing; scoring 90 and beating Detroit or Cleveland, the likely top two seeded playoff teams in the East, is quite another.

After the game, Nets guard and potential free-agent signee Vince Carter said "It's all the same. A loss is a loss right now." That attitude, which lacks the necessary sense of urgency needed to make a playoff run, is one that the Magic desperately need to avoid if they want to reach the postseason for the first time since 2003.

This win would ideally light a fire under the Magic, which has failed to win consecutive games since the end of January. However, last week's convincing victories over contenders Utah and Miami should have done the same thing, but didn't. Putting together a winning streak would certainly toughen up this young team that so far has not displayed much hunger. With Indiana floundering, New York nursing injuries to key players and New Jersey underachieving, it's time for the Magic to make a move.

The Magic have had their third quarter collapse. It's time now for a fourth quarter surge.

ET CETERA:

• The Magic wore their black throwback uniforms at home, a practice of which I do not approve. Wearing throwbacks at home is fine, but they should be the home colors
• Carlos Arroyo got meaningful burn for the first time in over a week and scored 9 points in 8 minutes. Think he wants his backup point guard job back?
• Bo Outlaw, not Pat Garrity, was the past-his-prime power forward on the inactive list for the Magic
• It's hard for me to dislike Vince Carter, given his affinity for headbands and high socks.

The Face on the Milk Carton Series: Pat Garrity

It wasn't too long ago when Pat Garrity was important to the Orlando Magic. He'd come into the game, camp out on the right wing and wait for Tracy McGrady to kick it out to him for a three-point bomb. Garrity -- or, as my friend Jake called him then, "G-Pat" -- was a fan-favorite. You can't help but love unathletic white guys in the NBA who have only one skill, and if you don't believe me, ask Heat fans about Jason Kapono or Knicks fans about David Lee.

But now, just five seasons removed from his best, in which he averaged 11.1 points per game and shot .427 from beyond the three-point arc, Pat Garrity is arguably the least important player on the whole team. He's appeared in just 31 games this season, and in those he's only averaged 8.3 minutes. He has nearly as many field goal attempts (65) as he does points (67). He's hitting just 36.7% of this threes and only 32.3% of his shots overall. And although rookie James Augustine has appeared in just two games so far, Augustine is 7 years younger and appears to be able to rebound the basketball, something Garrity has struggled with throughout his career.

As I alluded to earlier, Pat Garrity made a living by camping out at the three-point line and waiting for the ball. But what happens when a three-point shooter stops making his threes? In most cases, it means getting cut in training camp or spending the season on the inactive list. In Garrity's case, it means sitting at the end of the bench each night, cursing the knee injury he suffered in 2003 that he never fully recovered from.