Orlando Sentinel: Surgery a Possibility for Tony Battie

Uh-oh.

Brian Schmitz reported earlier this afternoon that Tony Battie, arguably our best power forward, injured his shoulder a few weeks ago and may require surgery:

Orlando Magic power forward Tony Battie might have to undergo rotator cuff surgery and miss an undetermined amount of time.

Battie was undergoing testing Thursday at Duke University, and the Magic were waiting on the results.

I'm no expert, but I know that shoulder injuries take a long time to heal. The Lakers' Lamar Odom, who had a torn labrum, underwent surgery in May and is still recovering. As the Orange County Register reported, he might even miss the start of the NBA season (via Forum Blue and Gold).

Tony Battie is not a great player, but he is important to this team. Think of it this way: when Battie is on the floor for the Magic, Pat Garrity and James Augustine are taking a seat, which is a good thing.

If Battie indeed misses time, it almost ensures that Stan Van Gundy will be forced to use Rashard Lewis at power forward instead of at small forward, his natural position. Lewis doesn't have the strength or ability to defend the low post well.

A bad defensive team just got a lot worse. I wonder how Otis Smith feels about letting Darko go now.

(Thanks to Orlando Magic Blog for drawing this story to my attention).

Summer of 2007: An Orlando Magic Photo Album

Yesterday marked the official beginning of autumn, although you wouldn't know it based on the weather; it's still miserably humid outside. But now that summer's over, I thought I'd take a look back at the Magic's offseason activity. It was busy, tumultuous, and certainly not a vacation.

May 31st: Billy Donovan Hired as New Magic Coach

Photo by Red Huber, the Orlando Sentinel

June 6th: Magic Release Donovan from Contract, Allow Him to Return to Florida

Photo by Tim Casey

June 11th: Stan Van Gundy Hired as Newest Magic Coach

Photo by Fernando Medina, Getty Images

July 11th: Rashard Lewis Acquired From Seattle in Sign-And-Trade Deal

Photo by Fernando Medina, Getty Images

July 11th: Grant Hill Departs Orlando, Joins Phoenix

Photo by Jeramie McPeek, Suns Photos

July 12th: Magic Award Dwight Howard with Five-Year Contract Extension

Photo by Fernando Medina, Getty Images

July 17th: Darko Milicic Leaves Orlando, Signs with Memphis

Photo by Joe Murphy, Getty Images

August 24th: Magic Sign Adonal Foyle, Free-Agent Center

Photo by NBA.com

July 26th: Magic Sign Marcin Gortat, 2005 Draft Pick

Photo by NBA.com

So, there you have it: a pictorial look at the Magic's summer. I did my best to cover the major items, which is why these photos of some Magic players boxing, however amusing, didn't make the cut. The Magic's web site has its own photo gallery, which is worth checking out if you have some time to kill. It happens to include my all-time, non-action, favorite photo of a Magic player.

Poof! FSN Makes Magic Disappear

Hardy-har-har-har, I know. It's a Thursday, I have a ton of schoolwork, and I need to entertain myself. Please forgive the entry title.



Anyway, there's still no agreement between Bright House Networks and Fox Sports Net to make Magic games viewable on basic cable. Earlier this summer, the Magic dumped their in-house production team to cut costs and awarded 35 of their games to FSN. But Bright House, the only cable-provider in the Central Florida area, wants FSN to be part of a "sports-tier package," which costs extra. Unless an agreement is reached soon, the Magic will be the only team in the thirty-team NBA that doesn't have free broadcasts of all its games. 42 of the Magic's games will be available on Sun Sports, which is free. But it's still a crappy situation.

And it just got crappier, as Tim Povtak reports (in not such strong language, I should add). Magic fans wanting to see how well Rashard Lewis fits in with Orlando are going to have to wait a while, because 11 of their first 16 games will be broadcast on FSN.

This issue couldn't come up at a worse time for the team. As the Sentinel reported weeks ago, Harris Rosen, a tremendous fill-in-the-blank, is trying to block construction of the team's new arena via a signature drive. To recap: if he gets the signatures he needs, approval of any sporting venue costing over $25 million will have to go public vote. The Orange County Commission is retaining lawyers and will fight Rosen, who's probably just bitter because the money is going to benefit THE CITIZENS OF ORLANDO rather than the fat-cats who stay at his I-Drive hotels. Rosen has an army of dedicated nincompoops followers going door-to-door to collect the signatures, and he's avoiding Maitland and Winter Park, cities with an apparently high concentration of Magic fans. Thus, a majority of the people who will receive visits from the signature-gatherers are fringe Magic fans at best. If they're currently on-the-fence on the Magic, might this current TV flap sway them to sign the petition? After all, why would the average resident want to pay for a new arena for a team that they can't even watch on TV?

Stop me if you've heard this one before: the Magic have gotten themselves into a huge mess, and their fans are suffering as a result.

In other news, the Bucks inexplicably matched the Heat's offer sheet to Charlie Bell, which will keep the disgruntled guard in Milwaukee despite his insistence that he doesn't want to play there. As a result, you can completely disregard this post I wrote a few days ago. Additionally, the Heat won't be adding defensive-stopper (and perfect Pat Riley player) Mickael Pietrus from Golden State because they couldn't put together a good enough trade package; shockingly, the offer of Jason Williams and Michael Doleac (remember him?) wasn't enough to make Chris Mullin OK the deal (Via Fanhouse). Thus, the Heat have had a mediocre offseason at best, and are no longer locks to make the postseason.

Forthcoming for the Magic is the start of training camp (Sept. 29th, a week from Saturday); Forthcoming of us at 3QC is a post regarding the fantasy value of some Magic players and a post or two in the starting lineup series, which I've managed to stall for over a week now. Maybe they'd be finished if I didn't have The Canterbury Tales to slog through.

On Second Thought...: Using Statistics to Re-do the All-Defense Lineup

One week ago today, I made a post in which I wrote that Keyon Dooling should start at point guard for the Magic if the team went with a defense-oriented starting lineup. My reasoning came from objectively watching Dooling play; he's the best defender the Magic have under 6'6" tall. He also played minutes at point guard down the stretch last season as Carlos Arroyo fell out of favor with Brian Hill.

All the recent discussion about the validity of statistics in the basketblogosphere got me thinking, "How would that defensive-oriented lineup change if I were to use statistics instead of my own knowledge about the players?" I’ll go into two possibilities in that regard momentarily.

The statistics discussion began over at Plissken at the Buzzer, where Carter Blanchard poo-pooed John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) because it rated the likes of Brent Barry and Earl Boykins more highly than it rated Lamar Odom. Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty responded in this post on Ballhype, and the discussion has spun-off into so many posts on so many blogs that it’s hard to keep them straight.

I personally put a fair amount of trust in PER because it

• Compiles a player's offensive and defensive statistics into one number,
• Adjusts that number for playing-time and league pace, and
• Normalizes that number to 15 each season; that is, a marginal player will have a PER below 15 and a good player will have a PER above 15.

Using data from the incomparable 82games, here is what the Magic's best defensive lineup would be, derived from subtracting the PER a player allows opponents he is guarding from a player’s own PER:

1. Carlos Arroyo (15.6 own, 14.3 allowed, +1.3)
2. Keyon Dooling (11.2 own, 13.4 allowed -2.2)
3. Rashard Lewis (21.6 own, 15.5 allowed, +6.1)
4. Tony Battie (10.3 own, 15.2 allowed, -4.9)
5. Dwight Howard (23 own, 12.9 allowed +10.1)

Notice that Dooling and Battie allow better PERs than they post themselves. What’s sad is that those two players were, by this measure, the best at their respective positions last season even with those negative differences.

However, this lineup only works if you trust PER and 82games' assessment of each player's position; according to that site, for instance, Dooling was on the floor for 35% of the Magic's total minutes last season, and he spent 88.5% of that time at shooting guard. The table, available here, is reproduced in image form below:


But a statistical system in which Lamar Odom (15.9 points per game, 9.8 rebounds per game, 4.8 assists per game in 2006/2007; 16.1 PER) is rated lower than Brent Barry (8.5 points per game, 2.1 rebounds per game, 1.8 assists per game in 2006/2007; 16.6 PER) surely must be flawed, right? After all, players who rarely get off the bench do not have a fair amount of data from which to draw their PERs, which is why our very own James Augustine (a total of 7 minutes played in two games last season) posted a PER of 16.6, which also exceeds Lamar Odom's showing.

Perhaps a better indicator of a player's defensive effectiveness is his plus/minus rating, adjusted on a per-100 possessions basis. For instance, the Magic allowed 106.1 points per 100 possessions when Dwight Howard was on the floor, but just 105.4 points per 100 possessions when he was off it. Using this information, we can see that, at least last season, the Magic were actually a slightly better defensive team when Howard was not in the game.

Here's how the all-defense lineup looks when using on-court/off-court defensive performance as the criterion. Note that a negative differential is good because it means the team allows fewer points per 100 possessions when the player is on the floor:

1. Carlos Arroyo (103.8 on, 106.9 off, -3.1)
   
2. Keith Bogans (105.7 on, 106.0 off, -0.3)
   
3. Trevor Ariza (103.1 on, 107.2 off, -4.1)
   
4. Tony Battie (103.4 on, 107.5 off, -4.1)
   
5. Dwight Howard (106.1 on, 105.4 off, +0.7)
   

Interesting how Keith Bogans and Trevor Ariza show up here, but not in the previous list. This indicates, at least to me, that Bogans and Ariza are better team defenders than they are individual defenders.

Even more interesting: Dooling’s per-100 possession defensive differential isn’t so great; when he is on the floor, the Magic allow 108.1 points per 100 possessions. But when he’s off the floor, the Magic’s defense is better, allowing 104.6 points per 100 possessions. I have no idea how to explain that. Even more puzzling is Jameer Nelson’s numbers. When he’s on the floor, the Magic allow 107.1 points per 100 possessions. Does that mean that Jameer is a better defender than Keyon is? It seems to indicate that fact is true, although we, as Magic fans, know it not to be.

I now pose the question to you: if you had to select a defensive-oriented starting lineup for the Magic, whom would you choose?

This discussion of statistics has left me tired; I need to shut my brain off, and perhaps you do too. For you, then, I present Hedo Turkoglu getting dunked on by Marco Belinelli in Eurobasket competition. No wonder Turk doesn't appear on any of these defensive lineups, although, in fairness, he was the weak-side defender on the play and was not responsible for Belinelli getting into the lane.

Thanks to Tom Ziller for originally posting that clip over at AOL Fanhouse.

Fun With Rotations: 2007/2008 Starting Lineup Possibilities, Part Two

There are only three givens for this year's Magic starting lineup: Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard will be there. After that, it's anyone's guess as to who else will be there, and which position they'll play. 3QC breaks down the possibilities.

Tuesday's entry covered the All-Firepower lineup. This one features its philosophical opposite...

The All-Defense Lineup

1. Keyon Dooling
   
2. Trevor Ariza
3. Rashard Lewis
4. Tony Battie
5. Dwight Howard

This lineup surrounds the Lewis/Howard core with Dooling, Ariza, and Battie, three blue-collar defenders. It relegates Jameer to the bench, which frees him up to come into games and immediately look to score rather than look to set-up his teammates. There's no way that Jameer won't be the opening-night starter, but I'm willing to put that aside just for the sake of argument. Starting Keyon ensures that the opposition's starter will be worn down offensively. What we'd then have to bank on is that Jameer is able to run that starter ragged once he enters the game, forcing the opposition to go to its backup. In other words, this lineup trades early offense for later offense. Make of that what you will.

The major flaw in this configuration, however, is the opposite problem the All-Firepower one has: there are too few offensive weapons on the floor to start the game. Dooling has never been known for his scoring abilities nor for his ability to run an offense; Tony Battie has only one reliable offensive option: the 18-foot jumper; and Trevor Ariza feeds off of offensive rebounds and transition buckets rather than off of having plays called for him. Further, Dwight struggles with creating shots for himself, leaving Rashard as the only true playmaker. I suspect there would be plenty of standing-around going on in this lineup, which works well only when playing with elite talents like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan.

Basically, this lineup wouldn't be a bad one to use for small stretches, but it's not one that would be effective to start a game; it's not balanced enough. Relegating Jameer, Hedo Turkoglu, and J.J. Redick to the bench is just too risky because any of those players, when given starter's minutes, could go for 25 points on any given night.

As always, the comments section is open for discussion. There will be more entries in this series in the coming days.

Fun With Rotations: 2007/2008 Starting Lineup Possibilities, Part One

There are only three givens for this year's Magic starting lineup: Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard will be there. After that, it's anyone's guess as to who else will be there, and which position they'll play. 3QC breaks down the possibilities.

The All-Firepower Lineup

1. Jameer Nelson
2. J.J. Redick
3. Hedo Turkoglu
   
4. Rashard Lewis
5. Dwight Howard

As evidenced by the title, this lineup puts the Magic's most prolific scorers at each position on the floor to start the game. Nelson sets up the offense; Redick, Turkoglu, and Lewis spread the defense with their long-range shooting skills; and Howard clogs the lane on defense and posts-up on offense. Sounds great... at first.

There's a real drawback to putting this lineup on the floor to start the game: depth. Just ask four-time NBA champion coach Gregg Popovich why he keeps Manu Ginobili on his bench while he starts veteran Michael Finley. It's not a great idea to have your second-unit be comprised of -- and perhaps this term is too harsh -- scrubs. Where would the offense come from once the first-unit is off the floor? Carlos Arroyo? Keyon Dooling? Tony Battie? Yuck.

There's also a problem on the defensive end; Nelson, Redick, Turkoglu, and Lewis are regarded as below-average in that facet of the game. Further, Lewis is naturally a small forward, so he is unaccustomed to guarding power forwards. While he could certainly handle the more modern perimeter-oriented fours, the traditional, back-to-the-basket ones would give him fits. Rashard is needed for his offense, and he needs to keep his legs fresh. We can't have him spending all his energy on defense.

So although this starting lineup certainly would pack a punch, some games are won and lost based on reserve play, which eliminates this lineup from serious consideration.

Look for more lineup entries later in the week. Until then, discuss this one's viability in the comments section. Hope you enjoyed your Labor Day, everyone.

The Southeast Division Outlook, Part Four: Orlando Magic

The so-called Dog Days of Summer are here, which means the NBA season is still an eternity away -- and by 'an eternity', I mean 'two months'. Free-agents have been allowed to sign with teams for over a month, and there aren't any stars left in the pool. In other words, barring trades, most NBA teams have their core group of players in place, which means it's not unreasonable to start evaluating them.

Bearing that in mind, I thought I'd review the moves the Magic and their Southeast rivals made this summer and how those moves change the complexion of the division.

The Division Outlook series will run through this week and in alphabetical order by city. Today's post features the Orlando Magic.

Orlando Magic
Last season: 40-42, third in Southeast
Additions:

• Forward Adonal Foyle (via free-agency from Golden State)
• Center Marcin Gortat (via 2005 draft)
• Forward Rashard Lewis (via sign-and-trade with Seattle)
• coach Stan Van Gundy (former Miami consultant)

Losses:

• Guard Travis Diener (via free-agency to Indiana)
• coach Brian Hill (fired; now an assistant in New Jersey)
• Guard Grant Hill (via free-agency to Phoenix)
• Forward Darko Milicic (via free-agency to Memphis)

The Magic have been in the news more often this summer than at any other time in recent memory. The Billy Donovan Saga was memorable for all the wrong reasons, but the team was able to salvage that mess by hiring the offensive specialist Stan Van Gundy, a proven NBA coach. They followed that up by getting the most-coveted free-agent available, Rashard Lewis, even though it meant vastly overpaying for him.

However, one could argue the Magic lost as much talent as they gained: Grant Hill and Darko Milicic, two starting-quality players, bolted to chase a championship and playing time, respectively. Those departures leave the Magic thin at shooting-guard and power-forward, with no clear-cut starter at either position yet. Signing Lewis compounded that issue by giving the Magic too many small-forwards; Hedo Turkoglu and Trevor Ariza will either have to lose playing time or start playing out-of-position, which isn't great in the least.

Adonal Foyle provides the Magic with shot-blocking, but little else. He struggled to log minutes last season with Golden State, which runs an uptempo offensive system similar to the one Van Gundy figures to implement in Orlando. The other center, Marcin Gortat, is younger and more athletic, but will likely find himself behind Foyle on the depth chart because he will need time to adjust to playing against NBA-level talent after having spent the past several years playing in Poland.

But I'm not worried too much about any of that. Why? Stan Van Gundy is known for getting the best out of his players. In his first season as Miami's head coach, he improved the Heat by 17 games -- and this was in Dwyane Wade's rookie year, when he wasn't quite the player he is today. Oh, and that Shaq guy they have now wasn't there either. I'm not saying that the Magic are going to win 57 games, but I am saying is that they will improve. That said, they still have to contend with Washington and Miami for the division crown, and the Central and Atlantic divisions are filled with playoff contenders that could squeeze either of those two teams out of the playoffs.

UPDATED - Who's Under Contract: A Tentative 2007/2008 Orlando Magic Roster

The following is a list of players the Magic have under contract for at least the 2007/2008 season. It will be updated as the summer progresses. The timestamp will be changed with each update, which will move the post back to the top of the page.

	No.	Player	Pos.	Contract Expires
	1	Trevor Ariza	SF	2008/2009 1
	30	Carlos Arroyo	PG	2007/2008
	40	James Augustine	PF	2007/2008
	4	Tony Battie	PF	2009/2010
	10	Keith Bogans	SG	2008/2009
	5	Keyon Dooling	PG	2007/2008
	31	Adonal Foyle	PF	2008/2009
	8	Pat Garrity	PF	2007/2008
	13	Marcin Gortat	C	2008/2009
	12	Dwight Howard	C	2013/20142
	9	Rashard Lewis	SF	2012/20133
	14	Jameer Nelson	PG	2007/20084
	7	J.J. Redick	SG	2009/20105
	15	Hedo Turkoglu	SF	2009/20106
--	--	Empty roster spot 1	--	--

Notes:
¹: Can opt-out at the end of the 2007/2008 season.
²: Signed five-year, $85.9 million contract extension, which will come into effect following the 2007/2008 season.
³: Signed six-year, $127.2 million contract with Seattle, then was traded to Magic.
⁴: Agent and team in negotiations for contract extension.
⁵: 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons are team options.
⁶: Can opt-out at the end of the 2008/2009 season.

NBA Schedule Unkind to Magic

I came home from work today fully intending to write a long-winded post about the Orlando Magic's 2007/2008 schedule, but when I opened my RSS aggregator, I saw that Four Free Throws beat me to it (rated PG-13 for language). Here's an excerpt that illustrates how hard this season will be:

If those 11 away games in November aren't enough, then the fact that we play 14 of our 30 games against Western Conference opponents in the first two months should sway your opinion against the NBA's scheduling geniuses. Oh, and 9 of those games are AWAY games. Yes, that's right, almost TWO THIRDS of our away games against the western conference are in the first two months. That's brutal.

To add insult to injury, the Magic will be featured on national television exactly once: April 5th against the Cavaliers in Cleveland.

I understand that the Magic aren't a big-market team, but shouldn't the addition of Rashard Lewis to the team draw some sort of national interest? Shouldn't the opportunity to see Dwight Howard dunk all over people make people want to see the Magic? It's like we were a mediocre team last year or something.

Oh, wait.

Anyway, here is a list of ten eleven Magic games to look forward to next season:

Date	Opponent	Time	Comment
2 Nov		7:00 PM	Our first shot at revenge against the team that beat us 8 times last season.
10 Nov		7:00 PM	Fans in Orlando get their opportunity to boo Grant Hill and his Suns teammates into oblivion.
18 Nov		6:00 PM	The Garnett/Allen/Pierce trio makes its Orlando debut.
21 Nov	at	8:30 PM	We'll find out just how well the Magic measure-up to the world-champion Spurs.
24 Nov		7:00 PM	Stan Van Gundy tries to outcoach his teacher as his Magic take on divsion-rivals Miami Heat
26 Nov	at	10:00 PM	Dwight Howard vs. Greg Oden. 'Nuff said.
15 Dec		7:00 PM	The Magic's first opportunity to crush Darko Milicic's soul.
31 Dec	at	2:00 PM	We get our first crack at Chicago, one of the East's top teams.
2 Jan		7:00 PM	We ring in the New Year against New Jersey, a team against which we'll be vying for playoff position.
4 Feb		7:00 PM	The Mavericks come to town to face us as part of a five-game homestand against teams that made the playoffs last year. The season could hang in the balance.
16 April		7:00 PM	We close out the season against Washington, a tough divisional opponent. Given how evenly matched we are with them, this game could have huge playoff implications.

UPDATE: In my haste to get this entry posted, I forgot to add one important link. You can click here to purchase 2007/2008 Orlando Magic season-ticket plans. I'll let you know when individual game tickets can be purchased.

Are the Magic a Playoff Team? Discussion From Around the Web

• Unsilent Majority: "Tough break [sic] Orlando"
  
• Ballhype: The Magic are a team "Expecting to make playoffs but probably won't"
• Basketbawful: The Bucks and Magic will fight a losing battle for the final playoff spot.

(Kudos to Henry Abbott of TrueHoop for publishing this wrapup, from which the above quotes came)

Yes, the Trade To End All Trades has occurred, prompting every NBA fan with a pulse and a keyboard to make their playoff picks for next season. Nevermind the fact that the playoffs are eight-and-a-half months away.

Kevin Garnett's arrival in Boston may have knocked the Magic out of playoff contention.
Photo by Charles Krupa, the Associated Press

I should note that not all bloggers are taking a negative view of us. J.E. Skeets writes:

Who makes the playoffs? Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto, and Boston are locks. Miami, though they'll still sneak into the playoffs, won't even be the best team in Florida. Simply put: '06-07 Magic + Rashard Lewis - Brian Hill (!) = approximately 10 more wins. Yes, I think Orlando will win 50 games this year. Book it.

Brendan Sonnone of Believing in Magic also, uh, believes in us. Homerism? Perhaps. Worth reading? Yes.

So, with rare exception, most bloggers aren't giving us a chance. But ESPN's experts are a little kinder:

Does the addition of Rashard Lewis make the Magic a postseason lock?

Abbott: Like Boston, I feel the Magic need a top-flight point guard before they can be considered a reliable top Eastern team. And again, I'm feeling that barring a surprise there aren't a lot of Eastern spots up for grabs.

Hollinger: Again, not so fast. The Magic lost nearly as much as they gained between Hill, Darko and Diener, and their neighborhood just got tougher.

Stein: A lock, yes. Just because Lewis is way -- W-A-Y -- overpaid doesn't mean I don't like the idea of pairing Rashard with Dwight Howard. As long as we're only talking about finishing in the top eight, sure. Howard and Lewis aren't enough to lift Orlando to contender status, but those two get you in the playoffs in spite of some obvious holes around them.

Thorpe: Barring injury, probably yes. Especially with the new coach. They can play big or small effectively, and Dwight Howard should only keep growing as a player. Jameer Nelson is obviously a key, as is getting production from J.J. Redick. I like both to have better seasons this year.

Bucher: No lock, but I like their chances, as much because they hired Stan Van Gundy as having added Lewis to a team that squeaked into the playoffs last year. Boston is the only certifiable lottery team from last year joining the playoff mix and with the Wizards still a mixed bag and huge question marks about Miami, the Magic have as good a shot as they did last year. Which was good enough.

So they aren't singing our praises, but they aren't hanging us out to dry, either. But I get the feeling that it won't matter what we do when the season starts; we'll be disrespected no matter what. Let me explain: last year, we got off to a scorching 13-4 start, beating the Western-leading Jazz in Utah along the way. We were the toast of the league. Seriously.

Our season unraveled soon thereafter and we just squeaked into the playoffs, where we were summarily pounded by Detroit. We won a combined 10 games in December and January; to put that misery into perspective, we got our 10th overall victory three-and-a-half weeks into the season. The bottom dropped out. We were laughingstocks.

Dwight Howard couldn't have been satisfied with the way last season played out.
Photo by Gary W. Green, the Orlando Sentinel

So, even if we get off to a hot start this season, everyone will say we won't keep it up, pointing to last season as evidence. If we get off to a cold start, everyone will say we're paying the price for overpaying Rashard Lewis. And if we get off to a lukewarm start... it's still lukewarm. We won't get any respect.

All that lead me to write this entry. I'm playing the disrespect card and I'm not afraid to do so. The stuff the bloggers at the top wrote? That's bulletin-board material. We know that all too well. Remember when T-Mac said "now that we're in the second round" after going up 3-1 on the Pistons, only to lose out the rest of the way? You think that quote wasn't plastered all over the Pistons' locker room?

I don't claim to be read by anyone remotely connected with the Magic, so this entry won't motivate the team. What it should do is motivate its fans to stand and cheer, loudly and proudly, for their team. Let them talk smack about us. Let them write us off. We'll show 'em.

It worked for Golden State.

Photo by Ben Margot, the Associated Press

It can work for us.

So, what do you think? Are we a playoff team next year? I posed this question in a poll, but Blogger is goofing-up on me and it won't work, so it's stuck at the bottom of the page below my picture until further notice.

No News Is No News

Orlando Magic news has ground to a halt after the the Rashard Lewis signing. Just as the Magic are left scraping the bottom of the barrel in their search for a competent center/power-forward type -- Brian Skinner? P.J. Brown? MICHAEL OLOWOKANDI?! -- Magic bloggers are left scraping the bottom of the barrel in their search for content. The lack of interesting information, combined with my working at my "actual job" for nine days in a ten-day stretch, has left 3QC unusually barren. About the only news this week was Travis Diener signing with the Pacers.

Expect some Face on the Milk Carton posts in the coming days and weeks, along with the usual Magic news. Until then, to satisfy your Magic fix, I refer you to the following Magic-related sites:

• Black and Blue's daily 'Hottest Magic Cheerleader' competition is still going strong. I'm just pissed he came up with it before I did. Good on you, B + B.
• Believing in Magic has a fairly new post entitled "Magic Math." Play along and predict the Magic's win total for next season!
• The Magic's official team store , which makes me nostalgic for the days of the Orlando Magic FanAttic, wasted no time in offering Rashard Lewis jerseys for sale; authentic, replica, and youth-replica styles are all in the catalog now, although it looks like they're all sold-out at the moment. Hrm. I didn't figure that he'd be that big of a seller.
• And if you're low on adhesives, the team store will let you stock up on TurkOGlu, which is on sale. With apologies to the Horace Grant Celebriduck, this is indeed the finest Magic tie-in product ever made.
  

UPDATED: Reaction to Lewis' Contract From Around the Web

Your smile would be just as wide if you just guaranteed yourself $118 million over the next six years.
Photo by Jacob Langston, the Orlando Sentinel

By now, you probably already know that Dwight Howard inked a five-year, $85.9 million extension with the Magic. In case you didn't, the gents at Orlando Magic Blog have it covered.

Moving on, the dollar amount of Rashard Lewis' contract has been a big topic of conversation around the interwebz. Serving suggestion: start with yesterday's Bill Simmons chat, which I CliffNoted here, and then move forward.

Nuss at SuperSonic Soul, who wrote this retrospective post about Rashard a little over a week ago when news of the signing leaked, followed up with this entry defending Lewis' massive contract. Here's a snippet:

And while it’s fashionable to say that the Magic overpaid Lewis, that Lewis is a one-dimensional player who isn’t even that good at the one dimension, that Orlando is going to be handicapped in the future by the combination of Lewis and Howard’s contracts, allow me to say one thing:

Rashard Lewis is not a limp-wristed, shoot-only player whose contract is the worst in the history of professional sports. Rashard Lewis is a solid player who rarely if ever gets hurt, who doesn’t complain about minutes, shots, or anything else, and who is the perfect fit alongside Dwight Howard.

Thanks for taking up the fight, Nuss.

(Via TrueHoop) - Basketbawful's Word of the Day is 'Koncak':

"A derisive term used to describe an exceptionally large free agent contract, usually signed for several years at the maximum allowable salary."

There's much more, and it's hilarious. Plus, Jon Koncak!

(Via FreeDarko) - Tom Ziller of AOL's Fanhouse with a post -- complete with nifty graphic! -- comparing Rashard to Gerald Wallace, who re-signed with the Charlotte Bobcats yesterday for about $9.5 million annually.

It's been a busy summer, but it's only just beginning.

UPDATE: ESPN.com's Chad Ford offers his take on the Lewis signing in this Insider column, which was available for free viewing earlier today, but has since become subscriber-only.

ESPN.com's NBA index page on Friday night. Gotta love the headline.

Essentially, Ford says that the Magic violated five guidelines that teams usually follow when they're signing free-agents. The most interesting part of the piece? One of Ford's sources close to the Magic/Sonics negotiations said the Magic hardly tried to work a cap-clearing sign-and-trade deal; instead, they were content to "get their guy" and move on. If that statement is true, it indicates Otis Smith erred gravely in making this deal. Had we taken on another salary via a sign-and-trade, we would be over the salary cap and able to use the $5.5 million mid-level exception. Because we didn't, we're under the cap, and can only sign free-agents to the veterans' minimum, which is worth substantially less. It's almost as though Otis didn't think the move through at all.

Ford's criticism of the Magic didn't start there. In the July 11th edition of his Daily Dish podcast (available for free on ESPN.com's PodCenter), he and Marc Stein discussed at length the Lewis signing and Darko's departure. Do yourself a favor and give it a listen. Ford and Stein dish dirt on Marc Cornstein and on why the Magic have royally screwed themselves by pissing him off.

Bill Simmons and his Fans take Shots at the Magic

Bill "The Sports Guy" Simmons and his loyal readers torched the Magic at every available opportunity in a chat today. Some highlights:

Chris Maine: Simmons, you got an iPhone yet? I've heard disappointing reviews.

Bill Simmons: I didn't get one - the device seemed so complicated and ambitious that it scared me off, I wanted to wait until they worked out the kinks. I wish Orlando had done this with their cap space - instead, they spent $126 million on Rashard Lewis. Please send me 500,000 questions on that signing. I want to devote the whole chat to it.

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JKL(Boston, MA): If you're Orlando aren't you better off saving that cap room used up on Rashard Lewis to see if you can grab someone better next season?

Bill Simmons: Wait, you think they would have been better off not paying a $50 million player $126 million? Are you sure?

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Kevin (Chicago, IL): Rashard Lewis' deal is awful, but it can't be the worst Max deal ever. Who is the worst player ever to get a max deal? Marbury?

Bill Simmons: No. it's the worst max deal ever. It's the worst sports contract in history. They gave a max contract to someone who has one skill (scoring), and he's not even that good at that skill. He's like a better Hedu Turkoglu. He plays 40 mins a game, scores 20 points and grabs you 5 boards. Congratulations.

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Dan (NY): Worst player to get a max deal? Wrong Knick. It has to be Allan Houston. I'm a Knicks fan, and this huge mess they call a franchise all started with him getting top 2 guard money. They even had to make a rule for his contract.

Bill Simmons: At least Allan Houston was the best guy on a team that made the Finals. What has Rashard Lewis ever done? Sonics fans thought he was soft and unreliable... even in their one playoff run two years ago, he was hurt half the time.

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Jens (Copenhagen) : Bill can u explain what the Magic were thinking when they gave Rashard "I'm a skinnier Antoine Walker" Lewis a deal worth $125 mill?!? Please take me trough their thought proces, because I have no idea what they were thinking!

Bill Simmons: It's inexplicable. I can't do it. There's no possible way to explain it or justify it.

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Sam (Austin, TX): Basketball Reference shows Rashard Lewis has a .002 Hall of Fame probabilty, plus he scored 2 points in his one all star appearance. Of course he gets max money.

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Doug, Toronto: Shouldn't an NBA player have to have a signature sneaker to receive max money? Or at least be the reason why people go to games? Rashard Lewis is a nobody.

Bill Simmons: You should either be able to A) sell tickets, B) call yourself one of the best 5-6 people at your position, or C) have two first-class NBA skills. You know who's kicking himself right now? Mike Miller. If Rashard is worth $126 million, he's worth at least $110.

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Bill (Chicago, IL): As I see it, Orlando dodged a close one. With Grant Hill's ankle finally off the books, they were legitimately at risk of fielding an '07-'08 team with *no* franchise-crippling long-term contracts. That's not Orlando Magic basketball. Glad they got back to basics with this Lewis deal.

Fairly or unfairly, we're officially the laughingstock of the sports world. Only a good showing in the coming season will reverse that.

The Future Is Now: Rashard Lewis Formally Introduced at Press Conference

Magic General Manager Otis Smith, Rashard Lewis, and coach Stan Van Gundy pose together at the press conference announcing Lewis' arrival.
Photo by Jacob Langston, Orlando Sentinel

The Magic made official what had been known for over a week by signing Rashard Lewis to a six-year deal believed to be worth $118 million. To be technical, he actually signed with the Seattle SuperSonics, his former team, which enabled him to get the maximum dollar and year amounts on his deal. Nonetheless, Rashard Lewis is now a part of the Magic.

Expectations for the Magic this coming season will undoubtedly be high. Lewis' deal is, by far, the largest in franchise history. Lewis will be paired with All-Star center Dwight Howard to form what we can only hope will be a deadly inside/out combination. Appearing on 'The Finish Line' on 740 AM, Otis Smith called his team "contenders." We'll certainly find out if he's right in the coming months.

Lewis' arrival creates a logjam at the small-forward position -- the Magic already have Hedo Turkoglu and Trevor Ariza -- but Smith didn't seem concerned. He dismissed the idea that Turkoglu, who started last year, is now expendable: "We'll play two forwards, two guards, and a center. We don't worry about power-forward versus small-forward," is the equivalent of what he said -- I have to paraphrase; I heard the program in the car and had no recording equipment.

Otis' stance indicates that he believes the Magic should play Turkoglu and Lewis at the same time, despite their similar builds and skill-sets. That's all well and good, but the Magic have to be concerned about rebounding with that unit, as both players do not perform well on the boards for someone their size.

Otis also alluded to Trevor Ariza's versatility: "Having Trevor Ariza play more than one position for us, that's important." If Otis is implying that Trevor Ariza will play shooting-guard, Magic fans should be concerned. Ariza lacks the outside shot that shooting-guards require, and playing in the backcourt neutralizes the impact of his athleticism.

Based on Smith's comments, the opening-day depth chart could look like this:

Position	Player	Depth
PG	Jameer Nelson	1
--	Keyon Dooling	2
--	Carlos Arroyo	3
SG	Trevor Ariza	1
--	J.J. Redick	2
--	Keith Bogans	3
SF	Rashard Lewis	1
--	Hedo Turkoglu	2
PF	Tony Battie	1
--	Pat Garrity	2
--	James Augustine	3
C	Dwight Howard	1

Magic fans, does that roster make us contenders? I don't think so, but it should move us up the ladder in the East. Is a marginal improvement worth $118 million? Decidedly not. If the core of Lewis and Howard does not win a championship, then Otis Smith deserves all the criticism he's received.

UPDATED: Magic, Sonics Agree on Sign-and-Trade to Send Rashard Lewis to Orlando

ESPN reports in this item (scroll down to "Free-Agent Buzz") that the Orlando Magic and the Seattle SuperSonics have agreed on a sign-and-trade deal which will send Rashard Lewis to Orlando in exchange for as-yet-unrevealed players and a second-round draft selection. This agreement allows Lewis to get the biggest deal possible -- $126.4 million over six years -- while playing for his preferred team. The Magic could only offer him a five-year deal.

More on this story as it develops.

UPDATE - John Denton of Florida Today added the following information about the signing in this report:

The Magic will finalize a contract with Lewis, the most coveted small forward on the free-agent market, today. A news conference will be held this afternoon where the Magic will announce that Lewis has signed a six-year sign-and-trade deal worth a staggering $127.2 million. According to a source close to the negotiations who asked to remain anonymous, Orlando will send a second-round pick back to Seattle as compensation in the sign-and-trade deal.

Lewis, who turns 28 next month, will get a starting salary of $16.8 million next season -- the maximum allowable under the Collective Bargaining Agreement for a player with nine years of NBA experience. From there, he'll get 10.5 percent annual raises and the deal will be worth a whopping $25.6 million in the final season.

I'm no salary-cap expert, but I don't think a maximum-contract player can be traded straight-up for a future second-round draft pick. It'll be interesting to see which players, if any, are shipped out. Here's to hoping that Keyon Dooling isn't one of them.

*****

UPDATE AGAIN: John Denton writes the following via email:

I'm told the Rashard sign-and-trade will be done and the Magic will only be sending back a second-round pick. Apparently, Seattle didn't want the Magic's expiring contracts.

Perhaps this deal is the most lopsided one of all time, then.

Reaction to the Rashard Lewis Signing from Around the Web

• There are two sides to every story, and dyed-in-the-wool Sonic fan Nuss of SuperSonicSoul offers his perspective on Rashard Lewis' time spent in Seattle in this eloquent post. Apparently, for all his talent, Lewis never really endeared himself to Sonics fans. It's a great read. Plus, where else in the sports blogosphere would you find an E.M. Forster quote?
• ESPN.com's John Hollinger offers his analysis of the Lewis signing in this Insider post, which is available for free at the moment. He concludes that although the deal doesn't make the Magic contenders instantly, it still works because it puts them on a reasonable timetable. He adds that, between the hiring of Stan the Man and the signing of Lewis, the Magic are off to the best offseason of any team in the NBA. After the Billy Donovan mess, who woulda thunk it?
  
• Henry Abbott of True Hoop points out in this post that the Sonics have, in the span of a week, lost their two best players and received "an oft-injured veteran [Wally Szczerbiak], the backup point guard from the second worst team in the league [Delonte West of the Celtics], and a draft pick [Jeff Green]." Despite all that, Abbott writes, the Sonics have a bright future. Something tells me the drafting of Kevin Durant has something to do with that.
• For more Magic-centered perspectives, I recommend reading the latest posts on OrlandoMagicFan and on Black and Blue, as well as the forums at MagicMadness.

It's Unofficially Official: ESPN Confirms Lewis Will Sign With Orlando

When ESPN reports something, I tend to believe it. And earlier this morning, ESPN confirmed the rumor that Rashard Lewis will leave the Seattle SuperSonics to sign with the Orlando Magic.

It also confirms that the team will have to let Darko Milicic become an unrestricted free agent if they can't find a taker on someone else's contract:

The price for Lewis' services could grow, though. Unless a sign-and-trade arrangement can be worked out with Lewis' old team or unless it can otherwise shed a contract or two to create more salary-cap space in the next week, Orlando will have to renounce the rights to restricted free agent Darko Milicic to create the cap room to fund such a lucrative deal, instantly making Milicic an unrestricted free agent.

I was a bit cranky last night when I heard that part of the story, but the more I think about it, the calmer I become. Lewis is a top-30 talent in this league. Pairing him with Dwight Howard, who is arguably the league's second- or third-best center, should make the Magic contenders in the East for the next several seasons. It'll be sad to see Darko leave, because he showed a ton of potential in last year's playoffs, but he had still yet to prove himself.

Of course, all of that talk is rendered moot of the Magic are able to dump the necessary salaries so they can retain Milicic and sign Lewis. Let's hope that becomes the case.

UPDATED: WKMG: Rashard Lewis Will Sign With Orlando for 5 Years, $75 Million

Rashard Lewis shoots over fellow free-agent Gerald Wallace in a game from the 2006/2007 season. If Orlando's WKMG-TV can be believed, Lewis will be targeting baskets in Orlando next season.
Photo by Robert Padgett, Reuters

None of the major news outlets have reported this news yet, but it's a doozy:

Rashard Lewis is coming to Orlando.

RealGM.com quotes WKMG, a news station based here in Orlando, as reporting that Lewis will sign with the Magic on July 11th. His deal is reportedly worth $75 M over five seasons. The item also says that the Magic will allow Darko Milicic to become an unrestricted free agent.

UPDATE: Although the RealGM link is still active, there's nothing to be found about the Lewis signing on WKMG's website, which certainly calls into question the legitimacy of the report.

If this news is indeed true, I have to say I'm disappointed. How can I be so let down when the top player on my free-agency wishlist is apparently coming to Orlando? Because Otis Smith has been telling Magic fans for months that re-signing Darko would be the Magic's top priority. Now, it appears as though that wasn't the truth after all. If the Magic were truly intent on retaining Darko, they would have tried to find a way to clear more salary-cap room, which would have enabled them to both re-sign Darko and sign a big-name free agent. Would it really have been that difficult to find a suitor for Hedo Turkoglu? Trading him would have cleared an additional $5 M in cap space, which certainly would have helped keep the Dwight/Darko/Free-Agent-to-be-Named-Later vision of the future intact.

Again, this news is not official by any means, but if it is, I'm not exactly thrilled. I feel like I've been lied to, and that's not something I take to kindly.

Vince Carter Sweepstakes Over: Vinsanity to re-sign with Nets

The Nets will keep their All-Star backcourt duo of Jason Kidd and Vince Carter together. Earlier today, Carter reached an agreement to re-sign with the Nets.
Photo by Al Bello, Getty Images

The Orlando Magic's chances to land Vince Carter ended this afternoon when he agreed to terms with the New Jersey Nets, the team for which he has played the past two-plus seasons. ESPN.com reports that Carter's deal is for four years and is worth $61.8 M. Per league rules, the signing can't be made official until July 11th.

It's just as well for the Magic. Carter's age and attitude would have made him a questionable choice had the Magic pursued him. Nonetheless, he would have drawn quite a crowd to the Orlando Arena.

Carter's signing narrows down the list of big-name free agents to All-Stars Chauncey Billups and Rashard Lewis, as well as the up-and-coming Mo Williams and Gerald Wallace.

UPDATED: Free Agency is Upon Us: Is Rashard Lewis Out of Reach?

Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith can't get down on himself if free-agent Rashard Lewis suddenly becomes unavailable.
Photo by Red Huber, Orlando Sentinel

At the stroke of midnight just moments ago, the period during which NBA teams may negotiate with free agents began. In all likelihood, Otis Smith is already on the phone with Rashard Lewis, hoping to set up a meeting in Orlando in hopes of signing this summer's top free-agent prize. But it might be a tougher sell than anticipated. If there is any truth to this report, kindly pointed out by CLos over at Magic Madness, Lewis is only using us to drive up his asking price with the SuperSonics in hopes of forcing a sign-and-trade deal involving the SuperSonics and either the Mavericks or Rockets.

UPDATE: The Houston trade is no longer a rumor and a great fear now strikes me; the story showed up on ESPN.com early Sunday morning. Said Rockets GM Daryl Morey:

"We really want him. We think he would be a significant player for us. Rashard would have to be motivated to come."

Lewis played his high-school ball in Houston and could be motivated to return home.

Then there's the report to which I linked yesterday, which states that the Heat are dangling Udonis Haslem and Jason Williams' expiring contract in front of the Sonics in exchange for Lewis.

These reports, if they can be believed, seem to damper the Magic's hopes of getting Lewis, who knows the Mavericks, Rockets, and Heat are much closer to contending than the Magic are. Think of the star power already on each of those teams:

• Dallas has Dirk Nowitzki, who won the MVP award last season, and the young Josh Howard, who was a first-time All-Star selection last season.
• Houston has arguably the best inside-outside combination in the league with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. New head coach Rick Adelman is well-known for being popular with his players.
• Miami has Shaquille O'Neal, who is the most dominant center of this generation, and Dwyane Wade, who single-handedly won Miami the title in 2006.
  

Fortunately, Dallas and Houston don't have much to offer Seattle in terms of a trade. Young point guard Devin Harris is the only asset Dallas has, and he'd have to be inked to a hefty extension for the salaries to match up. Houston could put Rafer Alston, Shane Battier, and Jake Tsakilidis together, but Alston and Battier have unattractive, long-running contracts and Tsakilidis is a total stiff.

Miami is what worries me the most. Udonis Haslem is a valuable role-player in this league, and Jason Williams' hefty contract comes off the books in 2008, just in time for the Sonics to make a play in free-agency. Of course, Lewis would have to approve any sign-and-trade deal, but why wouldn't he approve one to Miami? After all, they're only one year removed from the title, and Lewis knows that he could make them a contender again in a hurry. Miami has all the benefits of Orlando -- beautiful weather, no state income taxes -- and it can contend immediately.

What seemed like a sure thing just days ago now seems far less of one. I wouldn't give up hope yet, though; those rumors may not be true and Lewis may prefer to play in Orlando after all. But after hearing this news, I suspect Otis Smith would do well to get Gerald Wallace on the line as well.