NBA Schedule Unkind to Magic

I came home from work today fully intending to write a long-winded post about the Orlando Magic's 2007/2008 schedule, but when I opened my RSS aggregator, I saw that Four Free Throws beat me to it (rated PG-13 for language). Here's an excerpt that illustrates how hard this season will be:

If those 11 away games in November aren't enough, then the fact that we play 14 of our 30 games against Western Conference opponents in the first two months should sway your opinion against the NBA's scheduling geniuses. Oh, and 9 of those games are AWAY games. Yes, that's right, almost TWO THIRDS of our away games against the western conference are in the first two months. That's brutal.

To add insult to injury, the Magic will be featured on national television exactly once: April 5th against the Cavaliers in Cleveland.

I understand that the Magic aren't a big-market team, but shouldn't the addition of Rashard Lewis to the team draw some sort of national interest? Shouldn't the opportunity to see Dwight Howard dunk all over people make people want to see the Magic? It's like we were a mediocre team last year or something.

Oh, wait.

Anyway, here is a list of ten eleven Magic games to look forward to next season:

Date	Opponent	Time	Comment
2 Nov		7:00 PM	Our first shot at revenge against the team that beat us 8 times last season.
10 Nov		7:00 PM	Fans in Orlando get their opportunity to boo Grant Hill and his Suns teammates into oblivion.
18 Nov		6:00 PM	The Garnett/Allen/Pierce trio makes its Orlando debut.
21 Nov	at	8:30 PM	We'll find out just how well the Magic measure-up to the world-champion Spurs.
24 Nov		7:00 PM	Stan Van Gundy tries to outcoach his teacher as his Magic take on divsion-rivals Miami Heat
26 Nov	at	10:00 PM	Dwight Howard vs. Greg Oden. 'Nuff said.
15 Dec		7:00 PM	The Magic's first opportunity to crush Darko Milicic's soul.
31 Dec	at	2:00 PM	We get our first crack at Chicago, one of the East's top teams.
2 Jan		7:00 PM	We ring in the New Year against New Jersey, a team against which we'll be vying for playoff position.
4 Feb		7:00 PM	The Mavericks come to town to face us as part of a five-game homestand against teams that made the playoffs last year. The season could hang in the balance.
16 April		7:00 PM	We close out the season against Washington, a tough divisional opponent. Given how evenly matched we are with them, this game could have huge playoff implications.

UPDATE: In my haste to get this entry posted, I forgot to add one important link. You can click here to purchase 2007/2008 Orlando Magic season-ticket plans. I'll let you know when individual game tickets can be purchased.

The Face on the Milk Carton Series: Rony Seikaly

When Darko Milicic left Orlando for Memphis last week, he became my second-favorite enigmatic, European-born big man who spent fewer than two seasons with the Magic. My favorite by a wide margin is the oft-forgotten Rony Seikaly, who spent the 1996/1997 season and part of 1997/1998 with the Magic.

Rony Seikaly and his ex-wife, the supermodel Elsa Benitez, sit courtside at an unidentified basketball game.
Photo by Brian Bahr, Getty Images

We in Orlando have been spoiled with Shaquille O'Neal and Dwight Howard, two cornerstone-quality centers, both of whom were selected first overall in their respective drafts. Given the greatness of those two players, it's easy to forget that Seikaly is the third-best center in the Magic's eighteen-year history. During his Magic career, he had per-game averages of 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks. Solid numbers, especially when one considers his .483 field goal percentage.

What endeared Seikaly to me, and to other Magic fans, was his intensity, which sometimes manifested itself in boneheaded plays. I had great lower-bowl seats for a 1997 game in which Rony Seikaly and Bo Outlaw grabbed a defensive rebound at the same time and swung their arms wildly in an epic attempt to gain possession of the ball. I don't know if it was Bo's goggles getting fogged-up, Rony's long hair obscuring his vision, or both that caused the mishap, but they ended up swinging so forcefully that they stumbled out-of-bounds with the ball in-hand: a turnover borne of passion. Stupid? Probably. Fun to watch? Absolutely.

Rony's career with the Magic came to an abrupt and disharmonious end on February 16th, 1998, when he was traded to the Utah Jazz for Greg Foster and Chris Morris. The trade fell through on February 18th when Seikaly didn't report to Utah, forcing the Magic to trade him again. That night, I experienced the pain of watching my favorite basketball player standing, disheveled and alone, in the Magic's locker-room tunnel, realizing that he would never wear Magic pinstripes again. The next day, the Magic shipped Seikaly and Brian Evans to the New Jersey Nets for -- can you believe this? -- David Benoit, Yinka FREAKING Dare, and Kevin Edwards. Dare was waived three days later, while Benoit and Edwards played sparingly; they were not retained the following offseason.

Seikaly's career ended with the Nets, for whom he played only 18 games before retiring. Since then, he's hosted golf tournaments to benefit cystic fibrosis research. And as recently as April of this year, he tried his luck at professional beach volleyball. In addition, his jersey at Syracuse University has been retired.

Photo by Syracuse University Athletics

What, me worry about Darko? I'm more concerned with properly honoring one of the fifteen best players in Magic history, the one who also meant the most to me.

A huge shout-out to the fansite MagicPride, from which I got the Magic's February-18th opponent and Seikaly's statistics.

UPDATED: Magic Withdraw Offer to Darko Milicic, Who Refuses to Play for Orlando if Otis Smith is GM

This picture of Darko from the final game of last season's playoffs may depict the last time Darko wears a Magic uniform.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

Continuing the flurry of news today, ESPN.com reports that the Magic have withdrawn their offer to their own restricted free-agent, Darko Milicic. The move makes Darko an unrestricted free agent, meaning the Magic do not have the right to match any offer another team makes. Marc Cornstein, Darko's agent, minced no words when discussing the withdrawal:

"I think it is unfortunate how dishonest and deceitful Otis Smith and the Orlando Magic have been in the process. However, I think it can be a good thing for Darko. I believe Darko is the most coveted free agent in the market now. We are excited to get a fresh start with a team that truly believes in him."

It looks like we've seen the last of Darko here in Orlando, at least if Cornstein has his way. But there aren't too many teams that can offer Darko the money he wants, meaning he still might return to the Magic:

Only three teams, the Bobcats, Grizzlies and Bucks, have the cap room available to offer more than the mid-level exception. A fourth team, the Chicago Bulls, might be able to clear enough room if they were to renounce their rights to free agent Andres Nocioni.

UPDATE: The Orlando Sentinel has late-breaking news on this story: Marc Cornstein told the Sentinel that Darko Milicic will not play for the Magic as long as Otis Smith is the team's GM. Barring a bold executive decision to fire Smith by team owner Rich DeVos, the Magic have indeed seen the last of Darko. My take? Otis Smith genuinely wants to keep Darko, but is pissed at the games Cornstein has played in the media trying to drive up Darko's value, which is why he's been slow to negotiate a new deal. What a mess this has become.

This move is puzzling to me, as it means the Magic traded away an expiring contract (Kelvin Cato) and a valuable first-round draft pick for a net of a backup point guard, Carlos Arroyo. The ESPN article to which I linked quotes an unidentified team's general manager as saying Otis Smith has not returned phone calls regarding trades for Darko. Complicating the matter, Otis remains on record as saying that re-signing Darko is a top priority. Whom do you believe?

The last time we let a 7-footer leave in free-agency, he went on to dominate the league and win three straight titles.

Photo by the Associated Press

While I'm not saying Darko will ever replicate that success, I am saying there is a bad precedent here. Ominous.

The Orlando Magic Free-Agency Countdown, Part Two: Mo Williams

As the July 1 start of NBA's free-agency period comes closer, 3QC is taking a look at the free agents who may be able to help the Magic the most by counting down from the 5th-best option to the best option. Today's post concerns the player who should be the Magic's fourth resort: Mo Williams.

"Mo who?!"

That's the reaction most people have whenever Mo Williams' name comes up. Playing for the small-market Milwaukee Bucks can damage one's name recognition. Don't let his relative anonymity fool you, though: Mo Williams is a point guard who is capable of bringing stability to the Magic's backcourt.

The Milwaukee Bucks' Mo Williams looks to pass the ball to teammate Dan Gadzuric against the Indiana Pacers. Though he's far from a household name, Williams possesses the skills necessary to take the Magic to the next level.
Photo by the Associated Press

By no means is Williams a superstar, and that has its advantages. He won't command a maximum salary; in fact, the New York Daily News reports Williams is asking for $9 M a year, which is a bargain. The Magic would not have to clear much cap space, if any, to sign Williams and retain Darko Milicic, another one of the team's priorities. Williams also won't face very high expectations in Orlando if he chooses to come here. The same can't be said about any of the other top free agents, who will be under intense scrutiny to succeed.

But there's a major downside to not signing a household name in free agency: Mo Williams will not put fans in the seats of the Orlando Arena, not by a longshot. Ultimately, the NBA is in the entertainment industry. Like everything else, it all comes down to the bottom line. Would the Magic invest $9 M a year in a free agent who would not make the big splash that another, higher-priced free agent would? I don't know the team's ownership well enough to tell either way, but the fact that it's even a question has to raise concerns.

Questions about marketability aside, Mo Williams is a solid player. He averaged 17.3 points per game last season, which would have been good for second on the Magic last season. Better yet, he distributes the ball well, averaging 6.1 assists per game. There is a concern about his passing, though: he also averaged 2.97 turnovers a game last season, which is high. The Magic were second-to-last in the league in turnovers last season and ball control is certainly one of Stan Van Gundy's higher priorities heading into 2007/2008. Perhaps Williams' high .845 career free-throw percentage balances out his turnovers. The Magic ranked 28th out of 30 teams in free-throw percentage in 2006/2007, and having a point guard who can "earn it at the line" would increase that woeful percentage.

There's one last problem when it comes to signing Mo Williams, and it has to do with confidence. Bringing in a free-agent starting point guard means benching current starter Jameer Nelson for sure. Jameer struggled in his third year as a pro, his second as a starter, and the Magic aren't sure if they're going to give him a big contract extension like the one teammate Dwight Howard will sign in the coming weeks. Jameer is essentially in a contract year now, and the Magic should want him to have enough opportunities to earn that contract. Replacing Jameer in the starting lineup with an All-Star is one thing; replacing him with a talented unknown is quite another. Essentially, the Magic need to avoid burning any bridges with Jameer, and signing Mo Williams may complicate things.

The Magic's Jameer Nelson, shown here near the end of a playoff loss to the Detroit Pistons, may have his confidence shaken if the Magic sign Mo Williams.
Photo by Gary W. Green, Orlando Sentinel

The whole thing may be moot, though. Yahoo! Sports cites an item in the Journal Times that says the Memphis Grizzlies are interested in Williams and may make a play for him on draft night. The real interesting part, though, is what league sources are saying about the Magic's interest:

The Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, and Charlotte Bobcats will also have salary cap room to pursue Williams, but officials from each of those aforementioned teams said it wasn't likely they'd do so.

So Mo Williams may never wear a Magic uniform, and that may be for the best. However, his reasonable salary and solid skills would make him a welcome addition to a team in need of backcourt consistency.

Yesterday: Part One in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown: Vince Carter.
Tomorrow: Part Three in 3QC's Free Agency Countdown.

Report: Iavaroni to Sign with Grizzlies

ESPN.com is reporting that the Memphis Grizzlies have agreed to a three-year deal with Phoenix Suns assistant Marc Iavaroni. The signing is expected to be announced tomorrow.

The Magic got permission from the Suns to speak with Iavaroni, but it's unclear as to whether or not he was ever interviewed. The hiring of Iavaroni narrows down the Magic's short list to Stan Van Gundy, Larry Brown, Billy Donovan, and others.

The Art of Divination

The season may not be over, but already rumors are swirling about the Magic's future, particularly as it pertains to the point guard position. Here's the two pieces of information I found to be most interesting:

• According to Brian Schmitz, Magic free-agent-to-be Travis Diener doesn't think he fits in with the team's long-term plans.
• According to Tim Povtak, former Magic player and current Memphis Grizzly Chucky Atkins, also a free-agent-to-be, wouldn't mind returning to Orlando this offseason.

Well, you might as well put it on the board, right? Diener wants a chance to play and Atkins wants to finish his career where he grew up -- he used to play for Evans High in Orlando. I think it's a near certainty that the Magic will let Diener go -- heck, they offered him to Charlotte for Melvin Ely a few months ago -- and the odds are great that the Magic will at least consider signing Atkins. But would that be a wise move? To check, I decided to examine the numbers.
I took each player's season totals and adjusted them equal to 40 minutes of playing time so a fair comparison could be made. Because it appears as though Jameer Nelson is, for better or for worse, the Magic's starting point guard of the future, it's unlikely that either player would see 40 minutes of action in an actual game, but I digress. The numbers favor Atkins, but the only statistical category in which he completely outperforms Diener is scoring. Although the Magic have had trouble scoring this season, they can look to one of the big-name free agents this summer -- Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, and Gerald Wallace among them -- to fix that area of their game. Further, when Atkins' age and proneness to injury are taken into account, the two players are essentially equal.

For me, the key category is assists per turnover. The Magic commit the second-highest amount of turnovers per game while averaging the second-fewest amount of assists. Diener would figure to improve both those categories. Further, Diener is a better shooter than his field goal percentage indicates. Adjusted field goal percentage is a more precise measurement of how well a player is shooting. ESPN explains it this way:

ADJ FG% measures shooting efficiency by taking into account the total points a player produces through his field goal attempts. The intention of this adjustment is largely to evaluate the impact of three-point shooting. For ex: If Shaquille O'Neal has 3-5 FG, all two-point shots for 6 points, then his ADJ FG% = [(6/5)]/2 = .600. Meanwhile, if Ray Allen is 2-5 FG, but his 2 FGM are both three-pointers for 6 points, then his ADJ FG% = [(6/5)]/2 = .600

Thus, Diener is actually the better shooter of the two players. Skeptics might mention that the Orlando doesn't need help in that department because it's 4th in the league in field goal percentage, but that's a lame argument; how can I guy who effectively shoots better than 50% possibly hurt a team if he takes care of the basketball? Okay, Diener is undersized and lacks quickness, making him a defensive liability. So what? Atkins is essentially the same size as Diener is, and he's much older. Plus, the Magic have Dwight Howard guarding the lane on defense; if a Diener, Atkins, or whoever plays the point lets the guy they're supposed to be guarding blow by them, Howard will be in the lane to block the shot, or at least to alter it.

Don't get me wrong, though. I like Chucky Atkins. I attended a few games during the 1999/2000 season when he was with the Magic and admired his effort. However, the Magic have a long-term need at point guard, and Atkins isn't the answer. I'd hate to see his career devolve the way Bo Outlaw's or Pat Garrity's did; those two once-proud players are now essentially being paid to be nice in the locker room and mentor the Magic's young core of players. Chucky deserves better.


My point is this: Travis Diener can be of use to the Magic as a third point guard who can one day become the backup or even start in spot duty. Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling, although they are not much older than Diener, are not the long-term answer at the position. Diener will be a restricted free agent this summer, meaning the Magic have the right to match any offer another team makes. They'd be wise to do so.

Bill Walton Would Be So Proud: Magic 116, Grizzles 89

Anyone who has watched a nationally televised NBA game in the past 15 years has heard color commentator and former NBA player Bill Walton say his catchphrase at least 28 times: Throw it down, big fella!

The Magic sure heeded Walton's advice last night in a big victory over the Grizzlies. Dwight Howard, who leads the league in dunks, got 9 slam opportunities against a team not interested in boxing out, defense, or anything else in particular. But it wasn't just Dwight getting in on the action; Trevor Ariza threw down a pretty reverse on a fast break after a great steal, Darko Milicic dropped a tomahawk after getting a beautiful pass from Hedo Turkoglu, Grant Hill wound back the clock and slammed a tomahawk down, and Tony Battie managed a nice two-handed stuff in traffic. Simply put, the Magic were scoring at will. Granted, it was against the league's worst team, but let me repeat: the Magic were scoring at will.


One can point to any number of reasons for tonight's offensive outburst: defensive disinterestedness on the part of the Grizzlies, several players just "feeling it" from the field, etc. But what interests me most is that the Magic were running hard and playing well in transition. I have to wonder how well this team would have fared this season if they adopted a run-and-gun style earlier, which would minimize the its deficiency at point guard because it wouldn't be working out of a set halfcourt offense. That said, some teams are able to dictate the pace of games and would be able to prevent the Magic from running: Miami, in particular, can force even the high-octane Suns into an ugly, grind-it-out defensive struggle. But with just six games left, it seems like it'd be as good a time as any to experiment with a more free-flowing style of play. What do the Magic have to lose? A playoff berth?

Oops.

Yeah... about that. Despite the win, the Magic were unable to gain any ground on the New Jersey Nets for the 7th seed in the East, nor were they able to create any separation from the 9th-place Indiana Pacers. Both of those teams won their games last night and thus the playoff picture remains unchanged. Does that fact minimize the meaning of this game somehow?

The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, no. The Magic's past 3 losses were all soul-crushing: a double-OT loss to Boston, an OT loss to Minnesota, and a loss to Toronto in which the Magic lead by 13 after the first period. A game such as last night's can lift a team's spirits. It's not just that they won; it's that everything went their way. The easy dunks were not the only things that went right for Orlando: Dwight Howard banked in a free throw, Keyon Dooling hit jump shots at the closing seconds of both the first and third quarters, Grant Hill's dunk came during the waning seconds of the first half, and all twelve players scored.

What does the past tell us about how the Magic might perform tonight? Admittedly, not much. The Magic are 4-4 in games played subsequent to victories in which the margin of victory was 15 or greater. In the most recent case, the Magic lost at home to Chicago by 24 points after beating Milwaukee by 18, a turnaround of 42 points. As I documented in an earlier entry, the only constant in this Magic season has been consistent inconsistency.


Tonight's game against Milwaukee is of the utmost importance. Win big, big fellas.

Streaky like Supergirl's Cat: Magic 94, Knicks 89

To say that last night's defeat of the Knicks was huge would be like saying the Empire State Building is tall; it'd be a gross understatement. At this point in the season, every game is monumentally important, especially for teams trying to squeeze into the playoffs.

That said, like Friday's win over New Jersey, the game was not pretty. The Orlando Magic got the shots they wanted on offense, shooting 52.1% for the game, but almost literally gave the game way by committing 20 turnovers, which lead to 24 Knicks points. Another similarity to the New Jersey game: Jameer Nelson got it done in the clutch. He scored 12 of his 22 points in the 4th quarter against the Nets and followed that up with the game-tying and go-ahead three-pointers in the 4th quarter against the Knicks.

Here's what worries me about Jameer: he only shows up in the clutch. Now maybe that wouldn't be so bad, but then he went and said this:

"My teammates know that I like to take the big shot in the games, so they found me."

While I admire Jameer's confidence, I think he's missing the point. As the point guard, it is his job to find his teammates and get them the ball in position to score, not the other way around. Hitting big shots makes up for it, but what about the first 45 or so minutes of a game? Nelson has failed to record more than 7 assists in a single game all season, and he's averaging just 4.1 per game. He's also shooting a career-low 43.8% from the field and committing 2.4 turnovers per game. Finally, his 5'10" frame makes it hard for him to defend opposing guards, forcing him to commit 2.8 fouls per game.

To me, those numbers indicate that Jameer Nelson is not fit to be a starting point guard in the NBA. He does not shoot well, nor does he distribute the ball effectively. He's shown that he can score in bunches, most clearly in the Magic's improbable come-from-behind win against the Spurs in January, in which he scored 31 points on 60% shooting. Thus, I have to conclude that Nelson should be brought off the bench and look to score against other teams' second units.

So then we have to wonder whom the Magic should start. Despite playing a key role in the win against New Jersey, Carlos Arroyo seems to have played his way out of the rotation. Keyon Dooling, who had been used primarily as a shooting guard before last week, was a capable distributor and defender, but shot poorly and is not suited as a starting point guard in the NBA. That leaves little-used Travis Diener, who only plays in garbage time and thus never faces top competition.

In other words, we need a point guard. That's a subject I'll address in a future entry.

The inconsistency of the Magic's point guard play mirrors the team's inconsistency, which can be charted like so:

Now take a look at the graph for the NBA's top team, the Dallas Mavericks:
The Mavericks haven't lost more than 4 consecutive games all season -- and those were their first 4 games. Further, since that first week of the season the Mavericks have lost just 5 games and no more than 2 straight. That's a mind-boggling accomplishment.

Understand that I'm not saying that the Magic are capable of winning 17 straight games, as the Mavericks did earlier this season. Rather, I'm saying that good teams play consistently and beat the teams they're supposed to beat, something the Magic haven't done this year. Consider that the Magic have lost to these bottom-feeding teams:

• Thrice to Atlanta (27-45, .375)
• Twice to Charlotte (26-45, .366)
• Memphis (17-54, .239)
• Milwaukee (25-44, .362)
• Philadelphia (28-42, .400)

Yes, eight of the Magic's 38 losses this season have come against teams that are currently at .400 or worse. Do playoff teams lose such games? No.

I'll close with this thought: the Magic should make the playoffs. They have a comfortable remaining schedule and should win just enough games to get in, where they will play either Detroit or Cleveland in the first round. If they draw the Cavaliers, it would be an interesting series given the surprising fact that the Magic won two of the three games played between those teams this season. If they draw the Pistons, it would soon be a good time for the boys to work on their golf swings, because they have failed to beat the Pistons in three tries this season. They'll get another shot on April 11th.