Orlando Sentinel: Magic Contacted Billy Donovan's Agent

I'll file this one under "C" for "Coaching Developments, Least Surprising."

According to Tim Povtak of the Sentinel, the Magic have contacted the agent who represents Billy Donovan. The Magic want to know if he is interested in leaving the University of Florida, where he won back-to-back national championships, for the NBA. This news comes despite of reports that Donovan is close to signing an extension with UF.

I'm not thrilled at the prospect of hiring Donovan. College coaches rarely enjoy success in the NBA. John Calipari, Tim Floyd, Lon Kruger, and Rick Pitino are just four college coaches who jumped to the pros and failed miserably. However, it could be argued that none of those coaches had a pro roster as talented as the Magic's right now, so Donovan might succeed here more than I expected. Former Magic head coach Doc Rivers, currently with Boston, agreed with that sentiment when he said the following:

"I've never bought into that thinking that they can't make it in the NBA. It's still just basketball. If you're a good coach and you have talent, you can be successful."

Fair enough, but I still doubt Donovan would leave UF under any circumstances. He has everything he wants there. With the Magic, he'd only be the head coach, because there's no way Otis Smith would ever relinquish his GM duties to him.

I wouldn't get too excited about this news. Billy Donovan is no dummy; he knows that the more he talks to pro teams, the more money UF will have to throw at him. Shaquille did the same thing to us ten years ago. The second he became a free agent, he knew he was going to sign with the Lakers. He told them that he was still undecided, which caused them to raise their offer. Then he left us. And that was all she wrote.

For another fan's take on the Donovan situation and what it might mean for Stan Van Gundy, I recommend reading this post by Black and Blue at his blog.

One more note: the Sentinel's report today mentions that Larry Brown, who has coached every basketball team in the history of the world at least once, told the Sentinel that he would consider returning to coaching. If the itch is still there, Larry should scratch it. Just not here. He already has a testy relationship with Darko Milicic and Trevor Ariza, both of whom he buried on the bench while choaching Detroit and New York, respectively. His inability to connect with younger players caused the U.S. Olympic team he coached in 2004 to win only a bronze medal. In short, he's not fit to coach the Magic, and I do not endorse his candidacy.

I need to return to Seven Seconds or Less, the book about the Phoenix Suns to which I alluded in my last post, now. I hope to have my impressions on Suns assistant Marc Iavaroni posted by tomorrow night.

There's A Battle Ahead

An enterprise, when fairly once begun, should not be left till all that ought is won.

- William Shakespeare

*****

I've lived in Orlando my whole life, and I swear I've had the following conversation at least 50 times:

Stranger: So, where are you from?
Me: Orlando.
Stranger: Oh, so you must go to Disney all the time then, right?
Me: ...no.

Here's what I want that conversation to turn into at some point in the near future:

Stranger: So, where are you from?
Me: Orlando.
Stranger: Oh, yeah. Go Magic!

Is that really so much to ask? I really don't think so. I bet New Yorkers get this one a lot:

Stranger: So, where are you from?
New Yorker: New York City.
Stranger: Oh. Yankees or Mets?

One of the most identifiable and integral parts of New York is the tradition of sports excellence, although you wouldn't know it by watching today's Knicks play. I'm not saying we need to be New York; that's incredibly unrealistic, considering the fact that NYC is essentially the Capital of the Known Universe. But what I am saying is that I know plenty of Orlandoans who are sick of their hometown being known for Mickey Mouse and "that giant golf ball thing."

What is it going to take to make Orlando renowned for its sports? Probably a lot, considering that the Magic is our only major sports team. The fact that UCF hasn't been remotely competitive since Daunte Culpepper turned pro doesn't help The City Beautiful, either. But I know what could help the city and its image, and it involves the Magic:

Fans. Passionate, yelling, screaming, flag-waving, jersey-wearing, wallet-opening, blue-and-silver-bleeding fans.

If you've been to a Magic game lately, you know that there aren't too many fans of that sort attending. The Orlando Arena -- I refuse to call it by its sponsored name -- can get dreadfully silent during a basketball game. The only times fans make noise are when they are prompted to by the either the Noise-O-Meter on the JumboTron or by public address announcer Paul Porter. Otherwise, they sit and stare in silence, even when the team is playing well. What kind of boring way of supporting a team is that?

I know that people have given up on the Magic. They're sick of losing, they're sick of Brian Hill, they're sick of crappy personnel moves, they're sick of the whole arena fiasco, et cetera. I posit this question to those "fans" who cite any of those reasons as justification for abandoning the team: What the hell did the Magic ever do to you to make you so bitter?

I know it isn't easy, guys. Believe me.

I still remember Nick Anderson's missed free throws in our lone NBA Finals appearance.

I still remember the day when Shaquille signed with the Lakers; ironically enough, I was staying at a Disney hotel with my parents when I heard the news.

I still remember when Penny staged a player revolt and drove Brian Hill out of town the first time.

I still remember the Heart-And-Hustle team of 1999/2000, which featured Ben Wallace, Chucky Atkins, Darrell Armstrong, and nobody else in particular.

I still remember when we signed T-Mac and Grant Hill to twin $93 M contracts seven years ago and the future looked so bright, only to have the bottom drop out on it once Grant's ankle started acting up.

I still remember when we lost nineteen straight games in 2003/2004 and the franchise got turned on its head once more.

I still remember when T-Mac demanded a trade and then insulted the whole franchise by admitting that he didn't give his best effort here.

I still remember when we wasted our no. 11 pick in 2005 on Fran Vasquez, who's still playing in Europe.

In short, I HAVE BEEN THROUGH THE SAME SHIT YOU HAVE BEEN THROUGH. And I haven't given up. Why? Because I've stuck through that much, and a few more losing seasons aren't going to keep me down.

*****

If you're going through hell, keep going.

- Winston Churchill

*****

I know it's not easy to be a Magic fan right now, especially considering how our league-best 13-4 start devolved into today's mediocre 36-42 record. But then again, when has it ever been easy recently? The glory days may be gone, but that doesn't mean it's time to write off the franchise.

We have Dwight Howard, who hasn't developed into half the player he will be and yet is already the second best player in the league at his position.

We have Jameer Nelson, who could come off the bench to be the next Vinnie "The Microwave" Johnson -- he heats up in a hurry.

We have Trevor Ariza, whose raw athletic ability and incredible defensive intensity could make him an All-Star if he develops his offensive skills.

Most intriguingly, we'll have $15-17 M to spend this offseason on a premier free agent, like Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Gerald Wallace, or Mo Williams.

Could one of those players be the final piece of the puzzle? Well, if you jump ship right now, YOU WON'T KNOW. Sure, you could start cheering and yelling and jump back on the bandwagon and perhaps no one will know the difference, but you will. You'll know that you're a fair-weather fan. And that takes some of the fun out of it, doesn't it?

This season, ESPN's NBA television coverage carries the tagline "Will You Be Watching When...?" and I find it to be appropriate for Magic fans. Orlando, will you be watching when Dwight Howard and co. hoist the team's first Eastern Conference Championship banner since 1994/1995 to the rafters of the Orlando Arena? Or will you read about it in the paper the next day, hit with the realization that you gave up too soon?

Another Reason to Hate the Wizards/Philly Does Us a Phavor

Damn those Washington Wizards and their golden uniforms.


Washington somehow managed to lose to New Jersey despite holding an 89-84 lead with 1:40 to play. Thus, the Nets now have a full one-game lead on the Magic in the East standings. By virtue of having a better intra-conference record, the Nets would get the higher playoff seed if they were to finish the regular season with a record identical to Orlando's. The Magic's job doesn't get any easier, as they visit Detroit tomorrow night to face the conference-leading Pistons. Should they lose that game, any hopes they have of leapfrogging New Jersey for the 7th seed would effectively be dashed. In fact, there's a chance that the Nets may actually move up to the 6th spot, given Washington's free-fall. The Wizards are without their two best players, All-Stars Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, and have lost five straight games and eight of 10 overall. Meanwhile, the Nets are 6-4 in their past 10 and All-Stars Vince Carter and Jason Kidd are playing their best basketball of the season. On Saturday, they both managed to record triple-doubles in the same game, something that hadn't been done in 18 years.

What I'm getting at is the following: perhaps no team has frustrated the Magic this season the way the Wizards have. They've taken two of the three games between the teams so far this season, including a 112-111 decision in which the Magic had three players score 20 points and still managed to lose -- due in large part, I hasten to add, to a third quarter in which the Magic were outscored 26-19. Why was that loss so horrifying? For one, it was a close game. But more importantly, the outcome gave the Wizards the lead in the Southeast division, which Orlando had lead for much of the season.

The point at which Orlando's and Washington's lines intersect shows the teams' records at the beginning of the week in which that game took place. After that game, it appeared as though the Magic had woken up, as they went on a five-game winning streak immediately afterwards, giving them the division lead once again. After that, their season officially began to unravel, as they proceeded to lose all the ground they made up during that winning streak by dropping their next five games, one of which was an embarrassing 21-point home drubbing at the hands of the Wizards. As shown on the graph, Orlando never regained the division lead after that point.

There was some good news coming out of tonight's NBA action, however. The lowly Philadelphia 76ers defeated the unraveling Indiana Pacers to move the Pacers two games back of Orlando. While I'm certainly thankful that the 76ers gave us a slight cushion, whatever goodwill I have towards them will be eliminated on Saturday, when the Magic visit Philadelphia and hope to solidify their playoff status. Despite their poor record, the 76ers have played well lately, and finish tonight a half-game ahead of New York for the 10th-best record in the East. There is still an outside shot that Philadelphia can make the playoffs -- they are four games back with five left to play -- so they will certainly have incentive to play hard. However, budding star Andre Iguodala is battling back trouble and may have to sit out against the Magic. That bodes well for Orlando, which needs every break it can get to reach the postseason.

The message from Philly's game tonight is as follows: the postseason chase, like politics, makes for strange bedfellows. The Magic have every reason to loathe the 76ers, not only because of this Saturday's contest but also because of 6th-seeded Philadelphia's improbable 3-1 playoff victory over 3rd-seeded Orlando in 1999. Okay, that happened a long time ago; hell, Penny Hardaway was still playing for the Magic at that point. Still, grudges can be good to hold if they provide motivation, and although nobody currently on either team played in that series, the Magic should still be mindful that this Philadelphia franchise prematurely ended their last legitimate shot at a title.

Go get 'em, boys.

Streaky like Supergirl's Cat: Magic 94, Knicks 89

To say that last night's defeat of the Knicks was huge would be like saying the Empire State Building is tall; it'd be a gross understatement. At this point in the season, every game is monumentally important, especially for teams trying to squeeze into the playoffs.

That said, like Friday's win over New Jersey, the game was not pretty. The Orlando Magic got the shots they wanted on offense, shooting 52.1% for the game, but almost literally gave the game way by committing 20 turnovers, which lead to 24 Knicks points. Another similarity to the New Jersey game: Jameer Nelson got it done in the clutch. He scored 12 of his 22 points in the 4th quarter against the Nets and followed that up with the game-tying and go-ahead three-pointers in the 4th quarter against the Knicks.

Here's what worries me about Jameer: he only shows up in the clutch. Now maybe that wouldn't be so bad, but then he went and said this:

"My teammates know that I like to take the big shot in the games, so they found me."

While I admire Jameer's confidence, I think he's missing the point. As the point guard, it is his job to find his teammates and get them the ball in position to score, not the other way around. Hitting big shots makes up for it, but what about the first 45 or so minutes of a game? Nelson has failed to record more than 7 assists in a single game all season, and he's averaging just 4.1 per game. He's also shooting a career-low 43.8% from the field and committing 2.4 turnovers per game. Finally, his 5'10" frame makes it hard for him to defend opposing guards, forcing him to commit 2.8 fouls per game.

To me, those numbers indicate that Jameer Nelson is not fit to be a starting point guard in the NBA. He does not shoot well, nor does he distribute the ball effectively. He's shown that he can score in bunches, most clearly in the Magic's improbable come-from-behind win against the Spurs in January, in which he scored 31 points on 60% shooting. Thus, I have to conclude that Nelson should be brought off the bench and look to score against other teams' second units.

So then we have to wonder whom the Magic should start. Despite playing a key role in the win against New Jersey, Carlos Arroyo seems to have played his way out of the rotation. Keyon Dooling, who had been used primarily as a shooting guard before last week, was a capable distributor and defender, but shot poorly and is not suited as a starting point guard in the NBA. That leaves little-used Travis Diener, who only plays in garbage time and thus never faces top competition.

In other words, we need a point guard. That's a subject I'll address in a future entry.

The inconsistency of the Magic's point guard play mirrors the team's inconsistency, which can be charted like so:

Now take a look at the graph for the NBA's top team, the Dallas Mavericks:
The Mavericks haven't lost more than 4 consecutive games all season -- and those were their first 4 games. Further, since that first week of the season the Mavericks have lost just 5 games and no more than 2 straight. That's a mind-boggling accomplishment.

Understand that I'm not saying that the Magic are capable of winning 17 straight games, as the Mavericks did earlier this season. Rather, I'm saying that good teams play consistently and beat the teams they're supposed to beat, something the Magic haven't done this year. Consider that the Magic have lost to these bottom-feeding teams:

• Thrice to Atlanta (27-45, .375)
• Twice to Charlotte (26-45, .366)
• Memphis (17-54, .239)
• Milwaukee (25-44, .362)
• Philadelphia (28-42, .400)

Yes, eight of the Magic's 38 losses this season have come against teams that are currently at .400 or worse. Do playoff teams lose such games? No.

I'll close with this thought: the Magic should make the playoffs. They have a comfortable remaining schedule and should win just enough games to get in, where they will play either Detroit or Cleveland in the first round. If they draw the Cavaliers, it would be an interesting series given the surprising fact that the Magic won two of the three games played between those teams this season. If they draw the Pistons, it would soon be a good time for the boys to work on their golf swings, because they have failed to beat the Pistons in three tries this season. They'll get another shot on April 11th.

Tim Povtak Serves Ben Q Rock a Piece of Humble Pie

I predicted in today's first post that Tim Povtak jinxed the Orlando Magic when he wrote that the three other teams they are battling for the last two playoff spots in the East were likely to lose this evening. I wrote that the Pacers, Nets, and Knicks would all pull upsets thanks to Povtak's deviltry. Well, two of the three games are in the books, and Povtak's predictions have held up so far: the Nuggets beat the Nets and the Mavericks beat the Knicks. The Pacers/Rockets contest is in-progress.
There are two ways to look at this situation:

• My earlier post doublejinxed Povtak's initial jinx, thus restoring balance to the universe and ensuring that his predictions held true.
• I don't know shit about basketball.

Either way, the Nets and Knicks both losing tonight is good for the Magic. I can live with being wrong if it means the good guys benefit in some way.

Tim Povtak Does Not Understand the Concept of the Jinx

If you've ever watched any sporting event on live TV, you know how the jinx works: a commentator/talking head/whatever makes a statement about a remarkable statistic or streak, only to see the unusual result happen.. Here's an example:

"Mark Price steps to the free throw line now. He's tops in the league in free throw percentage. The first shot... bounces off. So, a rare miss for Mark Price..."

Well, Tim Povtak, whose Orlando Magic/NBA coverage for the Sentinel I find to be much better than Brian Schmitz's, has jinxed the hell out of the Magic and their playoff chances. Imagine my horror when I visited the Sentinel's Magic coverage homepage to see this headline:
Idle Magic can shift back into No. 7 slot.
Even though that headline does not assert the shift as fact, it all but dooms us, at least this evening. Here's the key phrase from the article, which I've italicized in the following excerpt:

Indiana (30-35), New Jersey (31-36) and New York (30-36), the other three in the race for the seventh and eight spots, all are expected to lose tonight, playing against Western Conference teams with winning records.

The Pacers are playing the Rockets, the Nets are playing the Nuggets, and the Knicks are playing the Mavericks. Yes, I can see why Povtak would say that the teams were expected to lose. Just look at their opponents: the Rockets are coming off a 50-point victory against the 76ers; the Nuggets have won 4 straight, including a blowout of Phoenix; and the Mavericks have the best record in the league.

Here's what will happen tonight, though: Tracy McGrady's back will tighten up in pregame warmups, forcing Luther Head to start in his place. The Rockets shoot poorly and will lose a close game despite another steller performance from Yao. The Nuggets will decide not to play defense and allow the Nets to run-and-gun along with them. Jason Kidd will thrive in the wide-open style of play and drop a triple-double on the Nuggets. And the Knicks' backcourt duo of Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis will party like it's 1999 and combine for 55 points and 15 assists in shocking Dallas into its third loss in its past ten games.

Maybe I'm going out on a limb here. But now that Povtak has predicted a big standings shakeup, I can't help but to remain skeptical about it.